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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

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  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post

    Been reported by Nicholls though several times recently
    Where?. I haven't seen it

    Comment


    • Politologue bled on his previous start in the Tingle Creek, when trailing home behind Defi Du Seuil for the second time last season, and required a gentler touch. His trainer knew this and decided to give him an extended break before his big date at the festival. He also trained him completely differently, with taxing uphill canters replaced with repetitive work on the level.


      “We changed things last season after he had that little bleed in the Tingle Creek and he’s not been beaten since. I’ve never known him look better and be so enthusiastic.
      “He’ll go straight to Cheltenham after Saturday. It’s absolutely perfect timing for him.”

      A couple for you.
      Last edited by Lobos; 23 January 2021, 10:32 PM.

      Comment


      • Anyone have any theories for Defi’s continuing fall from grace? His runs this season suggest that his performance in last’s year’s Champion Chase was the start of a potential long term decline. It just doesn’t make sense to me considering 12 months ago he won last year’s Clarence House beating UDS for his third win of the season.

        I like Ista’s (I think) theory of French horses declining earlier because they start out earlier in France, but the decline seems so sharp especially if it took place between Jan and March last year. We know Defi can perform at Cheltenham so it was difficult to see why he ran so badly in the CC. The only remaining factor is the trip, and while I firmly believe he needs further than 2 miles that alone can’t explain what has happened since last January. Interested to know if anyone has any theories with what has happened?

        Comment


        • I’ve taken a quick look back through his form nothing jumps out that’s obvious, but he did race 7 times one season as a 3/4 year old. Does that seem a lot to anyone? I don’t think you’d catch Nicholls or Nicky racing one of there best juveniles that much in one season. Then bombed out the next season, but following season then raced 6 times as 5/6 year old. To me the good horses only normally run 3 or 4 times a year. I wonder if there’s a chance of too many miles on the clock ? And in decline. Also he looks like he hates the game, might be physically fit but mentally might be broken? It reminds me of Might who fell out of love with the game after that gruelling Gold cup.

          I know the flip side and argument is that horses come from the flat and go jumping so they have high mileage. Too much too young, just my thoughts

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          • I can't have First Flow in the Champion Chase at all. There's not many horses at the moment with a stronger right hand track bias than this fella. Cheltenham is a nightmare track for such horses. In the Supreme it hung so badly right that it was eventually pulled up.
            Since then it has gone RH in 8 out of 11 races. In one of the LH races it earned the comment "hung right throughout", in another "jumped right" and in the remaining one (at Wetherby) there were 4 fences omitted but it still jumped poorly and scrambled home, albeit giving away lumps of weight.
            The new Twist Magic?

            It's still a fair tool going left handed but not a Grade 1 horse.
            It was noticeable yesterday how the horse railed like the 1 dog at Crayford and Politologue, despite leading was wider and jumping a little left too.
            Yesterday was the perfect run by First Flow......ground to suit, hugged the rail and will it ever put in a round of jumping like that again?

            If both horses run to form in March I would be all over Politologue in a match bet. However as others have pointed out, with that hard race have a negative impact in the big race?

            If Chacun beats Min at Dublin like it did last year then it really should be a strong odds on favourite for March, and provided Nicholls reports it none the worse for yesterday's effort I'd still have Politologue to chase it home.

            Comment


            • Just watched the race back this morning and was very impressed with First Flow. David Bass is so good at getting the best out Kim’s chasers, he boots them into a lot of fences when required not a better sight.

              That aside I would be wary as Moby has mentioned above, seems to do all his best racing right handed.

              The tactics by Duc who was last other than Bun Dorran being pulled up, handicap plot? Last in a grade 1 by around 48 lengths, rated 159, what sort of drop would he get?

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              • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                Nicholls will be regretting running in that. He'd previously said he'd learnt how to campaign Politologue and he'd skip Ascot or Newbury and go the Festival fresh. I think they saw Chacun's run and thought they may as well run him because they won't lay a glove on Chacun in March.
                I thought the exact same thing and thought I was missing something obvious! Was on the morning line in December he said how they have found the best in him and keeping him fresh and run at QMCC is best way to campaign him. Then I have to admit only this week reading different articles was the first to my knowledge that he bled last year and thats why he didn't run again?

                Someone made a very good point about PN seen an opportunity to win another G1 so probably why he went for it. PN doesn't care as much about Chelt imo.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Rhinestone_Cowboy View Post
                  Anyone have any theories for Defi’s continuing fall from grace? His runs this season suggest that his performance in last’s year’s Champion Chase was the start of a potential long term decline. It just doesn’t make sense to me considering 12 months ago he won last year’s Clarence House beating UDS for his third win of the season.

                  I like Ista’s (I think) theory of French horses declining earlier because they start out earlier in France, but the decline seems so sharp especially if it took place between Jan and March last year. We know Defi can perform at Cheltenham so it was difficult to see why he ran so badly in the CC. The only remaining factor is the trip, and while I firmly believe he needs further than 2 miles that alone can’t explain what has happened since last January. Interested to know if anyone has any theories with what has happened?
                  I've done a complete 360 on my views on Defi. Before last season I didn't think he was a 2 miler, simply his jumping was too slow. But with him winning the grade 1's last season, to the eye his jumping had seemed to improve and I changed my view on him - not necessarily that he was an out and out 2 miler but that he could compete grade 1's at that level. I then put his disappointing run in the Champion Chase down as a one off poor performance, and thought the price at the beginning of the season was decent and an overreaction. I listened to the views on here and elsewhere about the grade 1's he won being run at a slow pace and watched the races back against different running and there was definitely substance. So far this season Defi has either declined rapidly or the theory he's not at his best going a proper clip over 2 miles is correct. I am optimistic it is the latter, as remembering his novice chase campaign his first run over 2m was woeful, but then he looked a different horse for he rest of the season over further. I now feel that at a fast paced 2m it is all happening a bit quick for him and he's not really settling. Therefore I have cashed out much of my Champion Chase bets earlier in the season and have backed him for the Ryanair, as after each run this season 365 have pushed him out to 25/1. That seems a bit strange to me as with each disappointment surely he's more likely to take the Ryanair in than the CC. Anyway this is me being hopeful.
                  ps.He was mid 40s on the exchange about 2 weeks ago!

                  Comment


                  • I could back First Flow as an E/W play if the ground came up soft or heavy.

                    The trainer has run him on Good/Soft once in his career, and I'd be of the opinion if it came up that at the festival that he probably wouldn't run him.

                    Comment


                    • Surely the fact that he doesn't appear to act left-handed (or is many pounds below his best), would bother you too CoD?
                      Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
                        Surely the fact that he doesn't appear to act left-handed (or is many pounds below his best), would bother you too CoD?
                        Why does he not act left handed ?
                        Where's the evidence for that ?

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                          Why does he not act left handed ?
                          Where's the evidence for that ?
                          Just seen Moby's post.
                          But don't agree.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Moby123 View Post
                            I can't have First Flow in the Champion Chase at all. There's not many horses at the moment with a stronger right hand track bias than this fella. Cheltenham is a nightmare track for such horses. In the Supreme it hung so badly right that it was eventually pulled up.
                            Since then it has gone RH in 8 out of 11 races. In one of the LH races it earned the comment "hung right throughout", in another "jumped right" and in the remaining one (at Wetherby) there were 4 fences omitted but it still jumped poorly and scrambled home, albeit giving away lumps of weight.
                            The new Twist Magic?

                            It's still a fair tool going left handed but not a Grade 1 horse.
                            It was noticeable yesterday how the horse railed like the 1 dog at Crayford and Politologue, despite leading was wider and jumping a little left too.
                            Yesterday was the perfect run by First Flow......ground to suit, hugged the rail and will it ever put in a round of jumping like that again?

                            If both horses run to form in March I would be all over Politologue in a match bet. However as others have pointed out, with that hard race have a negative impact in the big race?

                            If Chacun beats Min at Dublin like it did last year then it really should be a strong odds on favourite for March, and provided Nicholls reports it none the worse for yesterday's effort I'd still have Politologue to chase it home.
                            Whilst I agree in his chances overall.
                            I have to disagree with the reasoning.

                            First Flow won his 3 novice hurdles impressively on left handed tracks, and seemed to prefer soft/heavy ground (or at least the trainer seemed to think so).
                            He then was prominent in the supreme with Getabird and both went too fast and paid for it, including when tired veering to the right.

                            He's since only ran 3 times as a chaser on left handed tracks, one on debut against the supreme winner and he won the other 2.
                            He's also scraped home and jumped badly on right handed tracks too, including, off a lower mark the race before his wetherby run.

                            He can jump a little bit away to the right, I agree but it's a bit strong to suggest what you've stated in bold.

                            The biggest positive for this horse is the jockey as he's as positive on a chaser as anyone riding at the moment.

                            Comment


                            • Waiting Patiently unsurprisingly scratched https://twitter.com/timeform/status/...284429315?s=21

                              Comment


                              • "here's not many horses at the moment with a stronger right hand track bias than this fella"

                                As far as potential festival horses go I'm struggling to think of many other than Asterion Forlonge.
                                I also think a tendency to go right is more pronounced over fences than hurdles so is more easily masked in hurdles races, especially races that are won relatively easily.
                                God help anything on the outside of AF if it gets tired in a chase at the fez.

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