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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

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  • Originally posted by Moby123 View Post
    "here's not many horses at the moment with a stronger right hand track bias than this fella"

    As far as potential festival horses go I'm struggling to think of many other than Asterion Forlonge.
    I also think a tendency to go right is more pronounced over fences than hurdles so is more easily masked in hurdles races, especially races that are won relatively easily.
    God help anything on the outside of AF if it gets tired in a chase at the fez.
    God help any horse behind him as well

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    • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

      Whilst I agree in his chances overall.
      I have to disagree with the reasoning.

      First Flow won his 3 novice hurdles impressively on left handed tracks, and seemed to prefer soft/heavy ground (or at least the trainer seemed to think so).
      He then was prominent in the supreme with Getabird and both went too fast and paid for it, including when tired veering to the right.

      He's since only ran 3 times as a chaser on left handed tracks, one on debut against the supreme winner and he won the other 2.
      He's also scraped home and jumped badly on right handed tracks too, including, off a lower mark the race before his wetherby run.

      He can jump a little bit away to the right, I agree but it's a bit strong to suggest what you've stated in bold.

      The biggest positive for this horse is the jockey as he's as positive on a chaser as anyone riding at the moment.
      You reference the race behind Summerville Boy. Anybody considering FF for this I recommend you watch this first. I was on SB and it was clear the best horse lost simply because it was left handed. FF would have sluiced up on a right handed track that day. Maybe he’d be better equipped these days but you should factor this in imo.

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      • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post

        You reference the race behind Summerville Boy. Anybody considering FF for this I recommend you watch this first. I was on SB and it was clear the best horse lost simply because it was left handed. FF would have sluiced up on a right handed track that day. Maybe he’d be better equipped these days but you should factor this in imo.
        Yeah. I watched that race and he should have won.
        I just don't think his tendency is as pronounced as Moby made out.
        And we've been on this topic before so I'm going to shut up.
        But almost every horse in training takes a step or two to the left or right when jumping, and it's not a bother to many, whether the tracks left or right handed. There's not many fences on bends.

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        • Originally posted by Spectre View Post
          Surely the fact that he doesn't appear to act left-handed (or is many pounds below his best), would bother you too CoD?
          It wasn't something I had checked, but it something I will bare in mine.

          That said, Saldier hasn't won left handed but I see we've both backed him for the Champion Hurdle

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          • If Min beats Chacun at DRF do they switch targets ??

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            • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
              If Min beats Chacun at DRF do they switch targets ??
              441/1 ...

              or 80/1 NRNB

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              • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                It wasn't something I had checked, but it something I will bare in mine.

                That said, Saldier hasn't won left handed but I see we've both backed him for the Champion Hurdle
                Touche!

                Although I'd point out that both his wins on the flat came on left handed courses.

                Over the next couple of days I'm going to look back at both their previous races, to see if I can see an obvious reason for a left-hand / right-hand bias.
                Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                • Originally posted by Craigy14 View Post
                  Just watched the race back this morning and was very impressed with First Flow. David Bass is so good at getting the best out Kim’s chasers, he boots them into a lot of fences when required not a better sight.

                  That aside I would be wary as Moby has mentioned above, seems to do all his best racing right handed.

                  The tactics by Duc who was last other than Bun Dorran being pulled up, handicap plot? Last in a grade 1 by around 48 lengths, rated 159, what sort of drop would he get?
                  It just doesnt feel like a nichols mo to plot the Duc, cant imagine him getting anywhere near enough off to be of interest. Le patriote on the other hand looks more likely, 154 rated hurdler running off 146 over the fences, couple of lbs off for yesterday anod i can see him being a player in something like the annual.

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                  • Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                    If Min beats Chacun at DRF do they switch targets ??
                    I suppose that would depend on the manner of the loss.

                    If CPS were not in the picture Min would be 11/8 for this IMO.

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                    • HDB in weekender Re PTKO

                      (Sorry can't get full quote)

                      "She will have several entries, but is more likely to go Champion chase."

                      Think what MOST of us thought anyway and here still looking likeliest target

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                      • Originally posted by Big Bucks View Post
                        HDB in weekender Re PTKO

                        (Sorry can't get full quote)

                        "She will have several entries, but is more likely to go Champion chase."

                        Think what MOST of us thought anyway and here still looking likeliest target
                        Thanks BB

                        I have to admit I panicked and backed NRNB for the Mares Chase but really do not want her to run there.

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                        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                          Thanks BB

                          I have to admit I panicked and backed NRNB for the Mares Chase but really do not want her to run there.
                          Me neither!! I really do not want to see the day when the Arkle winner runs in the Mares Chase the following year.

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                          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                            Thanks BB

                            I have to admit I panicked and backed NRNB for the Mares Chase but really do not want her to run there.
                            I've got her covered for the Mares Chase too. I've been 95% certain all along she goes for the Arkle, but sometimes people make stupid decisions, so it's worth covering for stake back anyway jsut for that small percentage chance.
                            Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.

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                            • Is Cilaos Emery alive and well?

                              and could he be going here?

                              his jumping needs to improve and I’m not for one minute saying we should all pile in.

                              but if he was alive and kicking there’d be worse 50/1 shots in a race lacking any real strength and depth.

                              Or has that ship sailed?

                              I think hes worth bearing in mind if this was confirmed as his target.

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                              • Starting to look at Nube Negra for this
                                Yeah, complete opposite to what I've said in the past with the likes of "older horses tend to go well, course form etc etc"
                                Re-watched his Kempton performance.... the way he was accelerating into those first 3-4 fences was a joy to watch. Very quick jumper, and he tanked around
                                Would be a big of a trends buster for me, but there are some real strong positives here

                                1) I really like Skeltons are operating recently. Used to be the yard that would rock up to Worcester, first time run for the trainer, in a class 4 handicap change on a Tuesday afternoon. Seen a big improvement in the quality of horses they are turning out, I think they mentioned they are focussing on quality and not quantity and you can clearly see that with the number of grade 1 winners they have had, and they are all novices which aligns to their change in approach - Shan Blue and Allmankind for example

                                2) That run first time out was really impressive, appears they have looked after this horse, bringing up slowly to peak this season. Will turn up fresh, and certainly looks like the improver in this field

                                3) CPS is clearly a well deserved fav for this, but still needs to navigate this way through the DRF. Expect him to win. If he wins impressively then he's going to be too short for me to back for March - I'd be looking to take him on. If he loses or wins by a small/unimpressive margin then there could be some question marks and another angle for me to take him on

                                Yeah, would have loved to have backed Nube AP for this, would have been huge... but the boosted ~13/1's on Hills could be pay

                                I know Nube time was bettered by Shikskin on the same day. Nube had plenty left, and feel he could have ran a quicker time if the pace allowed it. It would not suprise me come March we see the Arkle and QMCC winners from two those races.

                                Thought I'd post this as it appears the Nube Negra fan base is fairly quiet... or there isnt one lol

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