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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

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  • Queen Mother Champion Chase 2021

    Market as of 22/05/2020


    Been some good chat about this already on the back of Istabraq's thread: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showt...got-this-wrong


    I agree with him that Put The Kettle On and Fakir D'Oudaries are the most interesting bets in this market so far.


    With Altior, Chacun Pour Soi and Defi Du Seuil still all in the conversation, and the reigning champion available at 20/1, who do you fancy?

  • #2
    Favs all look too short at the moment for me to get involved, so more interested in longer prices to build a book

    This time last year i took a nice long prices on Proltiologue and so have repeated again at 22s...he has been 2nd (almost beat Altior) and won this race.....so bound to be his main target, from a top stable and i don't think should be ignored. Price may not contract that much though, so only small stake so far

    Also done....Put The kettle On at 22s and Notebook at 40s.....latter prob unlikely, but won several G1s and i like the stable/jockey specially over fences....and Kev has tempted me into Fakir at 28s whilst still price available

    All my stakes at this stage pretty small and some using frees
    Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

    Comment


    • #3
      If you knew Defi Du Seuil would be giving this another crack, the 14/1 offered is a bit silly.

      Clearly has no problem with Cheltenham given his superb record there.... if he racks up a string of 2 mile Grade 1's again he'll be back to single figures no doubt.



      I think Hobbs said he'd have a very similar campaign too.... but I suppose they'll wait until the last minute to decide on where he'll run with the Ryanair more feasible this year than last.


      I suppose he's one that might be worth the 'to win the Tingle Creek and QMCC' if the price is right, with the thinking this year if he DOESN'T clean up in the 2 mile races in the season, he's incredibly unlikely to have the QMCC as his target.



      Given the nature of that set of circumstances being required though, that'll go on the back burner. Hopefully something north of 25/1.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
        If you knew Defi Du Seuil would be giving this another crack, the 14/1 offered is a bit silly.

        Clearly has no problem with Cheltenham given his superb record there.... if he racks up a string of 2 mile Grade 1's again he'll be back to single figures no doubt.



        I think Hobbs said he'd have a very similar campaign too.... but I suppose they'll wait until the last minute to decide on where he'll run with the Ryanair more feasible this year than last.


        I suppose he's one that might be worth the 'to win the Tingle Creek and QMCC' if the price is right, with the thinking this year if he DOESN'T clean up in the 2 mile races in the season, he's incredibly unlikely to have the QMCC as his target.



        Given the nature of that set of circumstances being required though, that'll go on the back burner. Hopefully something north of 25/1.

        Looked at Defi a lot.....was a big horse for me last year in all my horses to follow teams, etc.....and almost did it

        Reasons so far held off...

        - exchange price similar to best available
        - not sure if they might change race plan....not least as you can pick holes in the form a bit and i do think a fit Chacun prob better

        Just feels like a race with lot of unknowns and 14s or so still not that long in AP

        But you are right, if i knew he was def going 2m, i would jump at 14s
        Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)

        Comment


        • #5
          I think PTKO is a fabulous bet for this. Her owners are sure to target her at this race. No way should she be 20/1 as an Arkle winner, 2/2 at the course, unbeaten over 2miles over fences, proven on any ground, super jumper, trainer who knows how to win a Champion Chase and with question marks over those Infront of her in the betting. She's my biggest 'winner' by far at this stage.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Lobos View Post
            I think PTKO is a fabulous bet for this. Her owners are sure to target her at this race. No way should she be 20/1 as an Arkle winner, 2/2 at the course, unbeaten over 2miles over fences, proven on any ground, super jumper, trainer who knows how to win a Champion Chase and with question marks over those Infront of her in the betting. She's my biggest 'winner' by far at this stage.
            Well there is the possibility of P.T.K.O going to the Mares chase Lobos.
            as some have mentioned . But you would possibly think .
            after choosing the Arkle over the Handicap chase .
            The Owners will be brave and go champion chase .
            Definitely a nice price still , i think we'll all be watching keenly.
            when P.T.K.O next runs. In my book for the ch chs already..

            Comment


            • #7
              I will be shocked if the owners will even consider taking their ‘champion’ 2m G1 novice chaser to a G2 event...

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Istabraq View Post
                I will be shocked if the owners will even consider taking their ‘champion’ 2m G1 novice chaser to a G2 event...
                Absolutely, there's more chance that HdB takes Honeysuckle there, than PTKO.
                "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
                  Absolutely, there's more chance that HdB takes Honeysuckle there, than PTKO.
                  Agree. I'm all over Honey for the Mares Chase. There is a possibility that PTKO could go that route which is why I've split my stake between the CH at 20's and 14/1 TWAR. PTKO TWAR price is well worth a look as she is as low as 6/1 in a place to win the Mares Chase !

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I do like Put The Kettle On as I've already said...

                    Just thinking though, if she lined up against Altior or Chacun Pour Soi and they weren't favourite I would be at max bet for either of them to beat her.

                    Whilst she's nice value now relative to other horses in the market and taking into account their ages and fragility, she is no where near the level that either of those have shown yet is she?




                    Lack of interesting angles for the race means I might end up getting carried away with her, when really I think she has a pretty big leap to make to reach Politilogue's level yet, let alone Altior's for example.



                    Feet on the ground perhaps?

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      I do like Put The Kettle On as I've already said...

                      Just thinking though, if she lined up against Altior or Chacun Pour Soi and they weren't favourite I would be at max bet for either of them to beat her.

                      Whilst she's nice value now relative to other horses in the market and taking into account their ages and fragility, she is no where near the level that either of those have shown yet is she?




                      Lack of interesting angles for the race means I might end up getting carried away with her, when really I think she has a pretty big leap to make to reach Politilogue's level yet, let alone Altior's for example.



                      Feet on the ground perhaps?
                      Perhaps or perhaps not. Still say she is value bet at this time. For me massive question marks over both Chancun and Altior and indeed Defi after this year's debacle. A Plus Tard , her stablemate, unlikely to take her on in this IMO and Min, Allaho and Melon likely to stay at Ryanair distance or further. That leaves Fakir potentially and Douvan???? to beat. I say PTKO at 20/1 is not to be missed.

                      Edit.....I left out the Champion Politolouge! An insult I suppose for this one to be 20/1 as reigning champion. Backed him this year small stakes at 33's so I should really back him again but just think it all went his way this year and that he won't get the same luck again next March.
                      Last edited by Lobos; 26 May 2020, 03:12 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        If you're interested in PTKO then Fakir D'Oudairies has to be considered surely. You can grab 5pts bigger price than PTKO for 1 1/2 lengths, and I have my own feelings that they could have run that Arkle 10 times over and it would not surprise me one bit if Fakir won half of them. He has minor excuses, but 1 1/2 lengths is not a lot to make up at all. The pair were miles clear of anything else also.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                          If you're interested in PTKO then Fakir D'Oudairies has to be considered surely. You can grab 5pts bigger price than PTKO for 1 1/2 lengths, and I have my own feelings that they could have run that Arkle 10 times over and it would not surprise me one bit if Fakir won half of them. He has minor excuses, but 1 1/2 lengths is not a lot to make up at all. The pair were miles clear of anything else also.
                          Ive covered Fakir TWAR as he's just as likely IMO to go Ryanair and more likely to go that way than PTKO going Mares Chase. I backed him for the Arkle and immediately after the race thought that he'd have won without that mistake. However, I've watched the end of the race countless times since and each time I've come to the conclusion that PTKO was pulling away again at the finish which is why I am so keen on her for the CC. She has won over further than 2 miles which again is a massive tick for her in my book. I reckon Honeysuckle is getting jealous!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            I would still consider Notebook at 33s. My gut feeling is that the yard feels he is better than PTKO and I'm willing to give him another chance. I know the start of the Arkle(lost a few lengths from the standing start so could not race prominantly) and the very soft ground would not have helped his chances but the Dublin Racing Festival where he bolted at the start and still won may have left a mark as Cash Back also ran poorly. I've read that Blackmore felt he was beaten 4 out and he certainly looked very tired jumping the last. I really don't think this was the real Notebook.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              YH - Notebook lost his Arkle chance in the chute out to course, he overtook everything getting to the start and got further wound up by the false start, if they find a way to sort the horses mental issues out then they have a very real champion contender on their hand but rarely do highly strung horses calm down sufficiently.
                              33/1 flyer I couldn’t talk you off but as I’ve said elsewhere with PTKO at 20/1 and Fakir Doudaries at 25/1 with far fewer questions to answer I make them much better value...

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