Nap, Lay and E/W

[Istabraq]

Micro Manage runs again soon doesn't he.... might be worth a NRNB play again.
l.

Easier said than done Chief...

[Geordieboy83]

Where does the discussion come in?

At the moment it looks like a list of strangers posting 3 horses names.


#FatJockey4life
#ScrewTheOtherForums



Haha - I 100% am joking, which would be much more obvious if you could see how much I was laughing. Which you can't. Cos it's written.



Nap - Envoi Allen - combination of being the most exciting, most rock solid, weakest opposition and fairest price of the shorties?

Lay - Al Boum Photo - 3x Gold Cup winners are: Arkle, Golden Miller, Best Mate and Cottage Rake. At 3/1, given the list of absolutely incredible horses that haven't done it, I don't even want him to do it (and I backed him at 33/1 for the first one )

Each Way - Elimay - there are quite simply not 3 mares, currently chasing, better than her.






Geordieboy83 - what you laying BDD in?

Istabraq - Lay on Appreciate It? Who do you think will beat him?

ComplyOrDie - Haha, absolutely right. Shittest trend/stat going.... no sense to it.

In the Mares Chase Kev, just think at current price it is plenty short and like Elimay. Just think the horse has been going over hurdles for a long time now, and going straight to the festival is enough for me to take her on with Elimay, who ran a good race being Allaho.

[jonthehammer]

NAP - Envoi Allen (as i feel Shishkin and Monkfish have creditable opposition in Energumene & Latest Exhibition)
EW - Longhouse Poet (NHC) - Still think he has value in him as a suitable opponent to Galvin
LAY - Royal Pagaille (Gold Cup) - I just dont think he could beat ABP, after all hes just won a handicap which ABP would have hosed up in as well, and I dare say a few of the others as well.

[Quevega]

NAP - Appreciate It - Supreme

Far superior to anything else we've seen, and may end up one of the higher rated novices that's not ran in a handicap prior to the supreme. I cannot see anything in Ireland that would trouble him at Dublin.

LAY - Concertista - Mares hurdle

She is definitely improved, however the mares novice she won was a clear pace burn up and she was flattered, you only need to look what came in behind her, and the horses that fell back through the field's form. Her 2 races this year have lacked any real depth, especially if Black Tears was not trying (which is likely). In any case she has a lot to find to trouble the other 2 mares that may run here, and if they don't and Roksana turns up (unlikely but she might if the 2 main mares don't). All three have done miles more form-wise.

EACH WAY - Silver Streak - Champion hurdle

Just a much improved horse this season and under rated because of last season's defeats and connections.

[EnvoyAllen]

NAP - Appreciate It - Supreme

Far superior to anything else we've seen, and may end up one of the higher rated novices that's not ran in a handicap prior to the supreme. I cannot see anything in Ireland that would trouble him at Dublin.

LAY - Concertista - Mares hurdle

She is definitely improved, however the mares novice she won was a clear pace burn up and she was flattered, you only need to look what came in behind her, and the horses that fell back through the field's form. Her 2 races this year have lacked any real depth, especially if Black Tears was not trying (which is likely). In any case she has a lot to find to trouble the other 2 mares that may run here, and if they don't and Roksana turns up (unlikely but she might if the 2 main mares don't). All three have done miles more form-wise.

EACH WAY - Silver Streak - Champion hurdle

Just a much improved horse this season and under rated because of last season's defeats and connections.

Based on your strong judgment on Appreciate It, would the current 40/1 on ‘Appreciate It & Shishkin to win ANY race in 2022’ appeal to you at odds of 40/1 (giving you 6/1 & 5/1 any race) ?

Of course, I have no idea of your thoughts on Shishkin’s chances for next year, and they may differ from mine, but the 40/1 (even though that market has swiftly shortened from 80’s into 66’s and 50’s inside a month) still I believe, has genuine appeal?

Appreciate It could potentially (if your judgment is right) go off a ‘shortie’ in an Arkle or Marsh this time next year - Willie stating he’s every bit a chaser in the making. Shishkin for me would be a strong contender in this year’s Champion Chase, let alone next year’s when Chacun will be nearly 10, Altior will no longer be here and the race even now looking ahead to exit year, looks short of quality in this year’s renewal.

The 40/1 on Skybet, though halved in price throughout January, still stands as value I would suggest.

[Quevega]

Based on your strong judgment on Appreciate It, would the current 40/1 on ‘Appreciate It & Shishkin to win ANY race in 2022’ appeal to you at odds of 40/1 (giving you 6/1 & 5/1 any race) ?

Of course, I have no idea of your thoughts on Shishkin’s chances for next year, and they may differ from mine, but the 40/1 (even though that market has swiftly shortened from 80’s into 66’s and 50’s inside a month) still I believe, has genuine appeal?

Appreciate It could potentially (if your judgment is right) go off a ‘shortie’ in an Arkle or Marsh this time next year - Willie stating he’s every bit a chaser in the making. Shishkin for me would be a strong contender in this year’s Champion Chase, let alone next year’s when Chacun will be nearly 10, Altior will no longer be here and the race even now looking ahead to exit year, looks short of quality in this year’s renewal.

The 40/1 on Skybet, though halved in price throughout January, still stands as value I would suggest.

I'd say it's value also. But only just.
It's just not something that interest's me (long term multiples).
Any race for Appreciate it is attractive as it's hard to say for certain where he may end up, although I'd imagine he'll definitely go chasing.
But then he might win the supreme by 12 lengths with a perfectly timed ride. And they get tempted to go for the Champion, especially if Willie's get smashed again this year.

I just can't get too excited with these long term ones, unless they are stand out value.
And I'm restricted with Sky to a few quid and pence sometimes at the most, especially on specials.

But cheers for the suggestion.
I have took up 2 of yours BTW.

The Envoi Shishkin double @ 225-1 & the Gordon Elliot 4 winners thing.
So even though your tone (in written form) annoy's me sometimes, you also add value.
Like most people really. Including myself.

[EnvoyAllen]

I'd say it's value also. But only just.
It's just not something that interest's me (long term multiples).
Any race for Appreciate it is attractive as it's hard to say for certain where he may end up, although I'd imagine he'll definitely go chasing.
But then he might win the supreme by 12 lengths with a perfectly timed ride. And they get tempted to go for the Champion, especially if Willie's get smashed again this year.

I just can't get too excited with these long term ones, unless they are stand out value.
And I'm restricted with Sky to a few quid and pence sometimes at the most, especially on specials.

But cheers for the suggestion.
I have took up 2 of yours BTW.

The Envoi Shishkin double @ 225-1 & the Gordon Elliot 4 winners thing.
So even though your tone (in written form) annoy's me sometimes, you also add value.
Like most people really. Including myself.

I just like to be totally truthful with the facts Mr Quevega and that’s why my thoughts written down may appear harsh occasionally - I’ve watched a million YouTube ‘ante post previews’ in the last few days (for entertainment purposes only) and watched as ‘experts’ call Colreevy ‘him’ and one prominent (ish) ”expert” keep calling the Arkle favourite ‘Siskin’.

It makes my blood...........boil.


And whilst I appreciate (no pun intended) that you don’t have a preference for longer term doubles generally, if say Appreciate It & Shishkin do both win by 3 lengths in a few weeks time, would you then consider immediately the ‘any race’ double post Cheltenham for next year?

[Quevega]

I just like to be totally truthful with the facts Mr Quevega and that’s why my thoughts written down may appear harsh occasionally - I’ve watched a million YouTube ‘ante post previews’ in the last few days (for entertainment purposes only) and watched as ‘experts’ call Colreevy ‘him’ and one prominent (ish) ”expert” keep calling the Arkle favourite ‘Siskin’.

It makes my blood...........boil.


And whilst I appreciate (no pun intended) that you don’t have a preference for longer term doubles generally, if say Appreciate It & Shishkin do both win by 3 lengths in a few weeks time, would you then consider immediately the ‘any race’ double post Cheltenham for next year?

I've never thought you've been harsh.

And I'm always interested in pinching value if it's still available. Post race.

So if the markets still up, even after Appreciate It wins, I'd try and get a pound or two on.

But that's not likely to be in my mind in a normal year as I'd be off my face.
This year it's possible, but likely still won't be on my mind.

Vast majority of these type of best lose anyway. As the odds suggest.

[Saxon Warrior]

Naps: Shishkin
Naps: Sir Gerhard

Lays: Zanahiyr
Lays: Bravemansgame

ew: Roksana
ew: A Plus Tard

[jono]

Nap - Appreciate It - Supreme
Worryingly there's a host of horses I could have here, Envoi, Shishkin, Monkfish etc but i'll go with race one...
I've made note of the domination of Mullins / Henderson / Elliott and their first strings in this race. It looks a rare year where not only do both Elliott and Henderson seemingly lack any credible challenger or even runner in the race. But the gulf between AI and the rest of the Mullins runners looks huge. I think he's a certainty to win at the DRF where Leopardstown has brought out his very best performances. Looks rock solid and it'll take a big surprise if he's beaten. The fact 2 of the top 4 in the market are juveniles says it all really.

Lay - Allaho - Ryanair
Purely from a price point of view. I actually had him backed in the 'To win today and the Festival' at 14/1. When the race got rescheduled I held off stubbornly when it was then re-introduced at a shorter 11/1. So I can't dismiss his chance. I still may try and look to get him onside in some way but he's basically the same price as Min. Which is crazy. He's always really been too short a price imo for what he has achieved. And his price now comes purely off the back of his last run, which if he had any chance of festival success, given the condition were so in his favour he had to win. And given not only would I be backing Min between the pair but i'd be backing Elimay in the Mares chase at just a point shorter all day long too. It wouldn't surprise me if he actually ends up favourite on the day either.

EW - A Plus Tard - Gold Cup
I toyed with backing him for the Champion Chase prior to his defeat in the Fortria Chase in November. Really like his profile for the Gold Cup.
Had the class to beat Chacun Pour Soi over 2 miles. Destroyed a festival handicap and was only beaten 1.5L in a Ryanair.
7 Years old and completely unexposed at 3 miles. I have little doubt he'll stay well and 3 miles plus looks like it could be the making of him.
I like the fact they are going to the festival fresh. I'm a huge fan of Minella Indo as well and he was my main fancy in the Gold Cup, he still slightly edges it but I think APT could follow the same trajectory that Sizing John did in 2017

[FinalFurlong91]

"i'd be backing Elimay in the Mares chase at just a point shorter all day long too"

If the spectre of benie wasn't still looming I'd have made elimay my nap

[doctorwu]

Nap: Appreciate It
Lay: Bravemansgame
EW: The Conditional 4 places.

[doctorwu]

Nap: Appreciate It & Bob Olinger double

[jono]

"i'd be backing Elimay in the Mares chase at just a point shorter all day long too"

If the spectre of benie wasn't still looming I'd have made elimay my nap

I wouldn't be far off that view either. She's the one horse who is nailed on to run. In a race with no depth at all. Benie and to a lesser extent Colreevy mean she's not quite a shoe in..yet.

[jackh50]

NAP: Envoi, shishkin, chacun

Lay: Epatante, Al boum photo

Each way: Hook up, Gaillard du mesnil, Quilixios