2021 Marsh Novices Chase

[Pendil]

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/...y-entry/188257

I know he is entered Eggs but there is nothing in the Sporting Life about him being committed to run in it

[Quevega]

Cant see EA running next race anywhere other than Flogas in DRF at the beginning of February. Grade 1 over 2ml 5f won by Faugheen last year

He skipped Dublin last year and I'd imagine Gordon would ideally want to do the same. I think he's said as much.
But his hand may have been forced.

[ToniC]

Any quotes on this ABP?

https://www.racingtv.com/news/envoi-allen-in-cruise-control-for-perfect-10-in-drinmore

video in there. IMO he’s got to take his chance Sunday. Leaving it til the DRF is risky throws up the possibility of running into monkfish & the ground has been like a road on the Chase course more than once there in the recent past that time of year. Then you’re screwed for getting a run before Cheltenham. He couldn’t run delta work in the flogas because of the ground a few years ago & whether it would have made the difference or not he attributed his defeat in the RSA at least in part to that.

going right handed is no more an advantage for AF than it is EA, AF is just at a disadvantage we’re they to be going left handed. The 1/2 antepost about EA is about right for me.

[Quevega]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/envoi-allen-in-cruise-control-for-perfect-10-in-drinmore

video in there. IMO he’s got to take his chance Sunday. Leaving it til the DRF is risky throws up the possibility of running into monkfish & the ground has been like a road on the Chase course more than once there in the recent past that time of year. Then you’re screwed for getting a run before Cheltenham. He couldn’t run delta work in the flogas because of the ground a few years ago & whether it would have made the difference or not he attributed his defeat in the RSA at least in part to that.

going right handed is no more an advantage for AF than it is EA, AF is just at a disadvantage we’re they to be going left handed. The 1/2 antepost about EA is about right for me.

I hope they both run.
If he has to give 10lb then it makes it interesting to me betting wise.
As I'd price them both around even money.
Therefore it may be a decent bet on AF if his price remains 2-1 or above.

[Outlaw]

I hope they both run.
If he has to give 10lb then it makes it interesting to me betting wise.
As I'd price them both around even money.
Therefore it may be a decent bet on AF if his price remains 2-1 or above.

You'd get it as EA is the sexy profile future star amongst the racing eternity so will be odds on even in this scenario i reckon.

[Quevega]

You'd get it as EA is the sexy profile future star amongst the racing eternity so will be odds on even in this scenario i reckon.

I know.
It's tempting.
I really rate Envoi Allen and he could easily be capable of being a 170+ horse already. If Asterion is on it, then he'd have to produce a 165+ performance.
But it's just the odds that would tempt me.
Take it on the chin if beat.
But 2-1 plus in a coin toss is worth a punt, and they seem to really rate Asterion.


If Gordon bottles it, then he's not quite the flannel Henderson is, as the weights are not ideal.
Hopefully they both declare.

[Pendil]

He skipped Dublin last year and I'd imagine Gordon would ideally want to do the same. I think he's said as much.
But his hand may have been forced.

Yeah but last year he had an alternative in the Grade1 Lawlors at Naas, his First run beyond 2ml rather than waiting for DRF and going 2ml 6f

[Quevega]

Yeah but last year he had an alternative in the Grade1 Lawlors at Naas, his First run beyond 2ml rather than waiting for DRF and going 2ml 6f

I think it's about the spacing of his races and the prep/Gap for Cheltenham.
But also what you've mentioned, the race at Dublin against strong stayers wouldn't have been ideal last year, but that probably applies this year too, as we stand.

[Pendil]

https://www.racingtv.com/news/envoi-allen-in-cruise-control-for-perfect-10-in-drinmore

video in there. IMO he’s got to take his chance Sunday. Leaving it til the DRF is risky throws up the possibility of running into monkfish & the ground has been like a road on the Chase course more than once there in the recent past that time of year. Then you’re screwed for getting a run before Cheltenham. He couldn’t run delta work in the flogas because of the ground a few years ago & whether it would have made the difference or not he attributed his defeat in the RSA at least in part to that.

going right handed is no more an advantage for AF than it is EA, AF is just at a disadvantage we’re they to be going left handed. The 1/2 antepost about EA is about right for me.

Thanks ToniC. He did make a mistake in thinking the Punchestown race is a Grade 2. Interesting tomorrow to see the weights/penalties for Sunday

[jack1092]

A novice steeplechase for five years old and upwards
Weights - 5-y-o 10st 10lbs 6-y-o and up 11st 3lbs Mares allowed 7lbs
Penalties - Penalties (handicaps excluded) - Winner of two steeplechases 4lb extra Of three steeplechases or of a Grade 3 steeplechase 7lb extra Of two Grade 3 steeplechases or a Grade 2 steeplechase 9lb extra Of a Grade 1 steeplechase 11lb extra


Sunday's conditions.

So CSL, no penalty for G3 handicap Saxon. However, he must carry 7lb more for winning 3 chases.....

[Pendil]

I think it's about the spacing of his races and the prep/Gap for Cheltenham.
But also what you've mentioned, the race at Dublin against strong stayers wouldn't have been ideal last year, but that probably applies this year too, as we stand.

The Flogas is over 2ml 5f which he is now proven. Wouldn't it be better if we got EA at Leopardstown against Monkfish and Latest Exhibition. For Sunday as per Jacks post, EA due to give 11lbto AF, 5/2 pp seems value especially if the 1/2 chance doesn't run

[Quevega]

[QUOTE=Pendil;n272280]

The Flogas is over 2ml 5f which he is now proven. Wouldn't it be better if we got EA at Leopardstown against Monkfish and Latest Exhibition. For Sunday as per Jacks post, EA due to give 11lbto AF, 5/2 pp seems value especially if the 1/2 chance doesn't run[/QUOTE]

That;s a good point.

I may risk a bit antepost.

I think it's Gordon really wanting to have his best horse perfect for the Cheltenham race.
The hurdle race last year and the Flogas could have been & maybe too much of a test of stamina for Gordon's liking, four weeks away from the Big target.

If he skips Sunday, it wouldn't surprise me if he went for the 2 mile race in Dublin.

[Outlaw]

Seen as everybody doesn't always read the trainer/quote thread.
A.King in tomorrow's weekender says Messire Des Obeaux will not be going to Chelt!

[jack1092]

[QUOTE=Quevega;n272284]

The Flogas is over 2ml 5f which he is now proven. Wouldn't it be better if we got EA at Leopardstown against Monkfish and Latest Exhibition. For Sunday as per Jacks post, EA due to give 11lbto AF, 5/2 pp seems value especially if the 1/2 chance doesn't run[/QUOTE]

That;s a good point.

I may risk a bit antepost.

As might i. Envoi would need to be very good come Sunday giving him 11, surely Willie's played Gordie here + Envoi goes to DRF.

[Kevloaf]

Are Paddy usually generous on Willie Mullins horses?