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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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  • Unless EA gets panned, which I very much doubt, he'll not drift much as he won't be giving any weight away at the Fez.

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    • Asterion Forlonge is an absolute imposter.

      When Envoi Allen beats him (and he will - it's fact ) - he'll get a stupid rating, but it's because AF is grossly over rated.


      Let's not forget, in Asterion Forlonge's best ever performance, he wasn't even the stables number 1 going in to the race. Danny Mullins rode, as Paul Townend considered Mt Leinster a better horse in a Grade 1, in Feb 2020. Less than 12 months down the line, despite ZERO wins.... Asterion Forlonge is now a 'good bet' against the unbeaten darling of the NH game?

      Since then, Asterion Forlonge was thrashed in the Supreme 14L, with the only excuse that he jumped right....riiiiiiiight, and that makes him a Supreme winner without going right does it? Nonsense. He isn't up to G1 standard.

      Then he beat Conflated by 6L.... beating a Gordon Elliott handicapper in a Beginners Chase isn't form to get horny over.

      Then he blundered and fell next time out .....



      Woooooooooooooooooooooow


      If Envoi Allen is beaten by this horse it's pathetic. Envoi will become a laughing stock.
      Last edited by Kevloaf; 13 January 2021, 10:33 PM.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
        Asterion Forlonge is an absolute imposter.

        When Envoi Allen beats him (and he will - it's fact ) - he'll get a stupid rating, but it's because AF is grossly over rated.

        Honestly, if Envoi Allen is beaten by this horse it's pathetic.
        Jeez get off the fence Kev

        I do agree though, I think Envoi wins this with me on his back. Even the somewhat rounder version of me after the first lockdown

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post

          Jeez get off the fence Kev

          I do agree though, I think Envoi wins this with me on his back. Even the somewhat rounder version of me after the first lockdown
          Haha, I'm only fishing because I love the chance to disagree with Quevega
          We agree on most things, most of the time, but he's great to go up against - and this feels like a good opportunity.

          As if he proves me wrong, I'll just blame the hype on Envoi Average and start saying I never liked him since cashing out when Gordon said he WOULD NOT run in the Bumper, before he beat the mightly 'Blue Sari'



          Seriously though, we're talking Envoi Allen up as the horse who could be THE BEST horse we've seen, racking up an unbeaten run, not looking vulnerable. I personally was quick (on here) to point out the collateral form he has doesn't make him as special as people are making out, but the point is, we can all feel the hype is real about him.... we KNOW he hasn't shown what he CAN DO yet, and if he CAN'T give 10 lbs to Asterion Forlonge, then he's not worthy of the hype. It's a challange for sure, but one we surely expect him to be able to take in his stride.

          A blemish for him this season just ain't happening for me.... his bumper or novice hurdle seasons were where he'd have tripped up.... and then this season he shows what he can do... before actually challenging himself next year.

          I'd have him beating Shishkin, Asterion Forlonge or Monkfish, at any trip. Any of them....and I fucking love Monkfish in particular. Of those three, AF doesn't even deserve a mention!



          This horse is special.
          Last edited by Kevloaf; 13 January 2021, 10:53 PM.

          Comment


          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

            Haha, I'm only fishing because I love the chance to disagree with Quevega
            We agree on most things, most of the time, but he's great to go up against - and this feels like a good opportunity.

            As if he proves me wrong, I'll just blame the hype on Envoi Average and start saying I never liked him since cashing out when Gordon said he WOULD NOT run in the Bumper, before he beat the mightly 'Blue Sari'
            Disgusting bit of bait

            Out of curiosity, how much do you think Envoi has in the bag (ratings wise) over AF at the minute?

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Rooster Booster View Post

              Despite being on Shishkin at very fancy prices last year AF turned the race into a complete farce imo and how the hell connections felt it was appropriate to line up on the inside I really don’t know. My blood still boils now thinking about it and a horse or jockey could have died. That is not racing as I ever want to see it. This isn’t after timing as I was screaming at the top of my voice when I saw how they were lining up. it was unnecessary risk taking. The human had a choice the horses did not. If he runs at Cheltenham it will be the only race in many many years of the festival that I will not have watched. I will come back into the room and ask are all the horses and jocks ok and then get ready for the next race. I apologise for the melodrama and I apologise if I have offended anybody it is not my intention. It’s just how I feel.
              Absolutely spot on. I thought Townend should of been banned for that

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Dandrew99 View Post

                Disgusting bit of bait

                Out of curiosity, how much do you think Envoi has in the bag (ratings wise) over AF at the minute?
                2-3 lbs more...

                Whatever Asterion Forlonge can actually run to, I think Envoi Allen picks him up and runs away after the last....

                Even if it came down to a battle, I've seen Envoi Allen prove he can battle. Asterion Forlonge I don't know would knuckle down.



                I think Envoi Allen would have 2-3 lbs more than any horse you could name though.... I think he'll win, and beat whatever is there...

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                  He's not too short.
                  Envoi Allen has to run to at least 165+ to beat Asterion & Chatham street lad.
                  And may even have to be closer to 170 if one of the others improves 5 lb.
                  He is well capable on the potential he looks to have.
                  But should not be 1-2 to do so.

                  It'll be interesting to see the declarations, and how the market reforms.
                  And obviously the SP's.

                  But I'd certainly put the top 2 closer together, although I must admit, that part of this thought process is the yard vibes and what you've mentioned about the strength of support at Limerick. Plus the weight, and the right handed track. And not just Factual Facts results on the track.
                  Couldn't have put it better Q, exactly how i see it!

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                    Haha, I'm only fishing because I love the chance to disagree with Quevega
                    We agree on most things, most of the time, but he's great to go up against - and this feels like a good opportunity.

                    As if he proves me wrong, I'll just blame the hype on Envoi Average and start saying I never liked him since cashing out when Gordon said he WOULD NOT run in the Bumper, before he beat the mightly 'Blue Sari'



                    Seriously though, we're talking Envoi Allen up as the horse who could be THE BEST horse we've seen, racking up an unbeaten run, not looking vulnerable. I personally was quick (on here) to point out the collateral form he has doesn't make him as special as people are making out, but the point is, we can all feel the hype is real about him.... we KNOW he hasn't shown what he CAN DO yet, and if he CAN'T give 10 lbs to Asterion Forlonge, then he's not worthy of the hype. It's a challange for sure, but one we surely expect him to be able to take in his stride.

                    A blemish for him this season just ain't happening for me.... his bumper or novice hurdle seasons were where he'd have tripped up.... and then this season he shows what he can do... before actually challenging himself next year.

                    I'd have him beating Shishkin, Asterion Forlonge or Monkfish, at any trip. Any of them....and I fucking love Monkfish in particular. Of those three, AF doesn't even deserve a mention!



                    This horse is special.
                    Couldn't agree more Guvnor. AF is one I've just never rated as highly as a lot of people seem to. I'd be absolutely gutted if arguably the best horse in training can't beat him, regardless of the weight difference and regardless of whether they're running right handed, left handed, upside down or over the cheese wedges.

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by jack1092 View Post

                      Couldn't have put it better Q, exactly how i see it!
                      I'll start my list now then.... of people who aren't allowed to like or celebrate Envoi Allen:




                      I like you both.....but if I see either of you even admit to liking Envoi Allen after he wins the Marsh.... WHAM, I'll virtually throw an peach in your faces.... Is that even a peach?

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Faugheen_Machine View Post

                        I'm of the same opinion.

                        TBG is only 12/1 for the Marsh (NRNB), that's 4/6 if he finishes 2nd or 3rd.

                        I don't think he can beat EA so would much rather have 10/11 about the jolly.
                        I happen to think that, as a NRNB price, that 10/11 is actually pretty good value.

                        In fact, for a NRNB multiple, he’s probably the second horse you’d put in (after Benie for the Mares Chase obviously). Because there’s literally no chance whatsoever that he won’t be 4/7 at the very very biggest. I personally expect he will be nearer 4/9 tbh. The 10/11 is a nice old price really. Most of us on here have the 4/1+ about Envoi so I won’t be having a single at 10/11. But if I was starting from scratch, I’d definitely be backing that 10/11.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                          Asterion Forlonge is an absolute imposter.

                          When Envoi Allen beats him (and he will - it's fact ) - he'll get a stupid rating, but it's because AF is grossly over rated.


                          Let's not forget, in Asterion Forlonge's best ever performance, he wasn't even the stables number 1 going in to the race. Danny Mullins rode, as Paul Townend considered Mt Leinster a better horse in a Grade 1, in Feb 2020. Less than 12 months down the line, despite ZERO wins.... Asterion Forlonge is now a 'good bet' against the unbeaten darling of the NH game?

                          Since then, Asterion Forlonge was thrashed in the Supreme 14L, with the only excuse that he jumped right....riiiiiiiight, and that makes him a Supreme winner without going right does it? Nonsense. He isn't up to G1 standard.

                          Then he beat Conflated by 6L.... beating a Gordon Elliott handicapper in a Beginners Chase isn't form to get horny over.

                          Then he blundered and fell next time out .....



                          Woooooooooooooooooooooow


                          If Envoi Allen is beaten by this horse it's pathetic. Envoi will become a laughing stock.
                          Good post here Kev, although I’d like to touch on something that reading between the lines, hasn’t been mentioned yet (as perhaps it’s not been regarded as that important, and still perhaps isn’t....).

                          Gordon nailed his sails to the mast when interviewed after Envoi Allen’s Drinmore success, and committed this race specifically as EA’s last ‘prep’ run before also committing the Marsh as the race he’ll be going to. It’s fairly rare that a trainer will specifically name a race (he even mentioned the date) so far out - (of course he’ll know his options, but to name check a race as the only one? Fairly rare) but I genuinely believe Gordon’s been thrown a bit of a curveball with Asterion’s entry that he probably thinks is a bit of a tiny spanner in the works.

                          All Gordon wanted 2 months ago was for for his superstar stayer to have a relatively comfortable stroll, get the competitive juices flowing, maybe have a few half decent horses as competition but ultimately stroll to victory very comfortably. He’s already stated he doesn’t care Envoi A hasn’t been tested over a good gallop yet and has been quoted (it’s on Racing TV) ‘just wait until he’s involved in a proper run race, then you’ll see a proper horse’.

                          I don’t believe Gordon genuinely wants his horse carrying 11lb against a grade 1 winning horse (however inept his potential weaknesses might be) and also being pushed into winning the race. Gordon, have no doubt about it, wants this race won. It might be trivializing things to even suggest this, but there is no way Gordon wants questions asked if Envoi gets beaten. It’s a potential small headache that Gordon doesn’t want, and wouldn’t have foreseen when he chose this race 6 weeks ago.

                          The question is - does he want Kennedy to push Envoi really hard if he’s level pegs with Asterion F say 3 furlongs out, to maintain that unbeaten record against a horse carrying 11 lb’s less?

                          Would it have the potential to derail Envoi A’s ‘prep’ for bigger and more important things to come?

                          Gordon most definitely doesn’t want an imminent media barrage of questions, should Envoi A fail, even if it’s only half a length carrying the extra weight. I think it’s a potential ‘spanner in the works’ Gordon probably isn’t comfortable with, if truth be told.

                          If Envoi A does win this, and I’m quite sure the large majority of us would love to hope this is the case, then 8/13 for the Marsh is probably the best price you’re gonna get - 4/7 across the board most likely.

                          But on Sunday, with odds currently of 2/5 & 5/2 the main protagonists here, with the 11lb ‘allowance’ on a grade 1 winner with serious quirks, I’d be considering the latter to win 6 times the money on the win.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                            I'll start my list now then.... of people who aren't allowed to like or celebrate Envoi Allen:




                            I like you both.....but if I see either of you even admit to liking Envoi Allen after he wins the Marsh.... WHAM, I'll virtually throw an peach in your faces.... Is that even a peach?
                            Lolol- i'm definitely not part of the Envoi Allen fan club! The only reason i'd celebrate is if him and Shishkin win their races + the double every single person is on wins!

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by barizan View Post

                              Absolutely spot on. I thought Townend should of been banned for that
                              I'm sorry but that is just ridiculous. You cannot reserve sectors of the track for certain horses and you can't ban jockeys for looking to go the shortest way round. Had he gone round the outside all the way round he would have been guilty of not giving the horse it's best chance. If it was so obvious that he was an accident waiting to happen, how dumb were Walsh and Blackmore to be positioned where they were?

                              Comment


                              • If it was so obvious, my question would be.....why run him??

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