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2021 Marsh Novices Chase

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  • 2021 Marsh Novices Chase

    All Marsh chat here...

  • #2
    Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Jorvik View Post
      Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
      I don't believe so myself.

      However, a horse is never unbeatable, due to varying factors, and looking elsewhere for potential value is what I would always be looking to do.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Jorvik View Post
        Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
        I was just about to ask if EA is over priced at 10/11 NRNB. He's a bigger price than Shishkin which doesn't seem right to me and his SP has to be much shorter than 10/11, doesn't it?

        Comment


        • #5
          I think the only horse that’ll give him a race will be Asterion Forlonge personally

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
            I think the only horse that’ll give him a race will be Asterion Forlonge personally
            He'll be taking a right turn up cleeve hill with his jumping!

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post
              I think the only horse that’ll give him a race will be Asterion Forlonge personally
              Only way envoi gets beat is if that nut job knocks him over

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Jorvik View Post
                Given how the overwhelming majority feel about this race, I think someone has to play devils advocate and ask the following... Is there an argument that exists for Envoi Allen being overrated? Discuss...
                I think there is an argument yes... but not one I agree with

                If (massive if) you put aside his hurdle form, he hasn't beaten much over fences at all. I don't think he has had his jumping put under pressure at any point this season, so he does need to prove that he is as good as I think almost everyone thinks (and hopes) he is.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                  Only way envoi gets beat is if that nut job knocks him over
                  Haha! I obviously don’t want to see EA beaten..

                  I think AF’s jumping has been ok so far. A fence will hopefully sort him out. Was jumping great before he came down the last day and it was an unlucky fall really.

                  I just think Townend went to Limerick (I think) to ride AF especially so the yard clearly think he’s decent and he turned down a few good rides elsewhere to do that.

                  33/1 seems like value to me. Ran on well in the supreme after jumping horrifically. Can’t see him out of the first 3 in March.


                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Topofthegame2021 View Post

                      Haha! I obviously don’t want to see EA beaten..

                      I think AF’s jumping has been ok so far. A fence will hopefully sort him out. Was jumping great before he came down the last day and it was an unlucky fall really.

                      I just think Townend went to Limerick (I think) to ride AF especially so the yard clearly think he’s decent and he turned down a few good rides elsewhere to do that.

                      33/1 seems like value to me. Ran on well in the supreme after jumping horrifically. Can’t see him out of the first 3 in March.

                      Hes gotta run to finish first 3 though

                      Must be a good right handed race for him before punchestown

                      Think there's one at fairyhouse isnt there

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post

                        Hes gotta run to finish first 3 though

                        Must be a good right handed race for him before punchestown

                        Think there's one at fairyhouse isnt there
                        There is 16/1 NRNB for him with PP..... so whilst he technically does still have to run to finish in the first 3, no risk to him not running at all.


                        I'd personally be surprised to see him make the trip over... I don't think he's booked his spot yet anyway.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

                          There is 16/1 NRNB for him with PP..... so whilst he technically does still have to run to finish in the first 3, no risk to him not running at all.


                          I'd personally be surprised to see him make the trip over... I don't think he's booked his spot yet anyway.
                          Agree. Anyone backing AF anything other than NRNB is risking it (was tempted to say mad but not brave enough). I too don't think he'll make the trip. In fact I bloody hope he doesn't as a repeat of last year could wipe the entire field out and the 2000 members at the course.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                            Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.
                            Yes Lobos, I agree entirely and I don't think Willie M or the Donnelly's will be worried at all about taking EA on. IMO It could be one of the races of the week. I have no doubt though that if something goes wrong with Monkfish, then TBG will end up in the RSA.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Lobos View Post
                              Based on his last run I think The Big Getaway will put it up to Envoi in this. The thought of them going hammer and tongs over the last few fences is making me dribble. I can see TBG trying to make all with Envoi waiting to pounce. Do I think there should be 16 points between them? Hell no.
                              Are you forgetting that he put it up to EA in the Ballymore last season and was well beaten?

                              I can't see how he reverses the form if they both run their race.

                              Comment

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