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Weights now in RP for Sundays Killiney nov ch @ Punchestown
Envoi 12.0
Andy D 11.10
All the other entries 11.3 and that covers Chatham Street Lad. CSl had been considered more likely to go for the 2ml h/cap chase the previous day worth more than double.
Wonder if they might shift here instead getting 11lb from EA (if he is declared). CSL comes out 12lb clear on adjusted RPRs
Are Paddy usually generous on Willie Mullins horses?
What I should have said when I wrote this was also....
If Envoi Allen can't give 10 lbs to Asterion Forlonge, he's nowhere near the horse he's talked up to be.
I don't think 5/2 Asterion Forlonge is a good price, I think he's ridiculously over hyped for beating Easywork and taking that formline literally is bananas. That formline, plus 10lbs, plus going right handed and Envoi is still 2/5.
Anyone backing against him, isn't allowed to celebrate when he wins the Marsh.
Definitely his toughest test yet on a racecourse. If Envoi wins again we could see him go 1-2 for the Marsh maybe ?
I agree, Lobos, if he goes right-handed and pummels Asterion Forlonge giving him 11lb then he will be strong odds on, and the opposition will melt away.
Yep.
I've been hedging, and will do some more before Sunday.
I'll be having a hefty bet on the lunatic to beat him.
But have already started loading up some NRNB doubles on Envoi at 10/11, cos if he does win he probably doesn't ever get any bigger.
I'll probably add one or two more before Sunday.
If Asterion runs and beats him, then I'd still fancy Envoi at Cheltenham for obvious reasons, so whilst his price may be bigger.
I'll have a proper go on him then.
I'm one of the few on here with little on the FAV so far.
I agree, Lobos, if he goes right-handed and pummels Asterion Forlonge giving him 11lb then he will be strong odds on, and the opposition will melt away.
I think EA will win but I don't think he'll pummel Asterion at all. They speak very highly of him and he was smashed up for the Grade 1 at Limerick before making a silly mistake. I agree with others that he's too short v EA based on known form, but I think he might surprise a few people this weekend.
I think EA will win but I don't think he'll pummel Asterion at all. They speak very highly of him and he was smashed up for the Grade 1 at Limerick before making a silly mistake. I agree with others that he's too short v EA based on known form, but I think he might surprise a few people this weekend.
He's not too short.
Envoi Allen has to run to at least 165+ to beat Asterion & Chatham street lad.
And may even have to be closer to 170 if one of the others improves 5 lb.
He is well capable on the potential he looks to have.
But should not be 1-2 to do so.
It'll be interesting to see the declarations, and how the market reforms.
And obviously the SP's.
But I'd certainly put the top 2 closer together, although I must admit, that part of this thought process is the yard vibes and what you've mentioned about the strength of support at Limerick. Plus the weight, and the right handed track. And not just Factual Facts results on the track.
He's not too short.
Envoi Allen has to run to at least 165+ to beat Asterion & Chatham street lad.
And may even have to be closer to 170 if one of the others improves 5 lb.
He is well capable on the potential he looks to have.
But should not be 1-2 to do so.
It'll be interesting to see the declarations, and how the market reforms.
And obviously the SP's.
But I'd certainly put the top 2 closer together, although I must admit, that part of this thought process is the yard vibes and what you've mentioned about the strength of support at Limerick. Plus the weight, and the right handed track. And not just Factual Facts results on the track.
Regardless of what price he is Sunday, I still think he's an attractive EW bet for the Marsh. 33/1 with B365.
I think CSL will race on Saturday as there is 44k up for grabs in a race he should probably win.
Yeh Limerick he was backed from 6/4 to 4/6 and they sounded extremely disappointed post race based on how good they think he is.
I want EA to win, but I want to see him tested and win the way a really good horse should.
Regardless of what price he is Sunday, I still think he's an attractive EW bet for the Marsh. 33/1 with B365.
I think CSL will race on Saturday as there is 44k up for grabs in a race he should probably win.
Yeh Limerick he was backed from 6/4 to 4/6 and they sounded extremely disappointed post race based on how good they think he is.
I want EA to win, but I want to see him tested and win the way a really good horse should.
That last line in a nutshell, we will all have an opinion on what prices each should be and what one might have to run to etc. Novice horses potentially having to run to 150+ never mind 160+ outside of a festival is so rare these days that, any chance an occasion presents itself ,no matter who wins we just want to see them bring the best out of each other.
Yep.
I've been hedging, and will do some more before Sunday.
I'll be having a hefty bet on the lunatic to beat him.
But have already started loading up some NRNB doubles on Envoi at 10/11, cos if he does win he probably doesn't ever get any bigger.
I'll probably add one or two more before Sunday.
If Asterion runs and beats him, then I'd still fancy Envoi at Cheltenham for obvious reasons, so whilst his price may be bigger.
I'll have a proper go on him then.
I'm one of the few on here with little on the FAV so far.
I missed the price on Envoi and have nothing on him in singles too, I’m a bit annoyed I didn’t back him when he was 4/1 & 3/1 because I couldn’t bring myself to back
a novice so short. I regret it now. I’ve only Envoi in a few doubles, trebles & RABs. The value now for me is backing horses to place, if Envoi does win on Sunday hopefully a few will be pushed out a bit. Even at 1/5th odds I should hopefully get 4/1 & 5/1 for 2 selections I’ve backed already.
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That formline, plus 10lbs, plus going right handed and Envoi is still 2/5.
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