Triumph Hurdle 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

Nicely done but can't believe he is a triumph hurdle winner in waiting. The 6/1 is plenty short enough for me.

 

[The Lick]

Yes very nicely done!

 

[TheRowebot]

Was impressive enough but can’t help but feel Nicky knows Apples Shakira would walk all over him, especially with a 7lb allowance. We have a dream doing a good job of seeing what’s out there..

 

[The Lick]

Hi I agree Apples Shakira is definitely the one at this stage especially in receipt of 7lb but it's nice to have a few behind her at good prices !

 

[Innoko]

Looked pretty good I thought. Haven't invested but certainly a contender come March!

 

[Tenty]

Scooby, what would your top three in terms of value be in this market at the moment?

Was impressed with Nicky’s winner the Wednesday before Christmas that you gave a good shout beforehand.

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby, what would your top three in terms of value be in this market at the moment?

Was impressed with Nicky’s winner the Wednesday before Christmas that you gave a good shout beforehand.

I could narrow if down to 3 but I'd be annoyed if they were all non runners and another that i have here bolts up that's 40/1 now.

Top horses in terms of value on ability in no order if was nrnb.
1 melody of scotland
2 style de garde
3 Demopolis
4 Sao
5 msassa
6 elimay

If was real nrnb at the current prices id have gone huge ew on all of them.

On future hype
1. Saldier 40/1

 

[doctorwu]

I could narrow if down to 3 but I'd be annoyed if they were all non runners and another that i have here bolts up that's 40/1 now.

Top horses in terms of value on ability in no order if was nrnb.
1 melody of scotland
2 style de garde
3 Demopolis
4 Sao
5 msassa
6 elimay

If was real nrnb at the current prices id have gone huge ew on all of them.

On future hype
1. Saldier 40/1

Cant see any of the above finishing in the frame.

 

[Scooby91]

Cant see any of the above finishing in the frame.

Who's the 1st 3 then doctor?

And why not? The stats I assume.
Do you know these horses?
Not sure the owners thought that when they paid €310, , 000 for 1 of them alone.

 

[Tenty]

I could narrow if down to 3 but I'd be annoyed if they were all non runners and another that i have here bolts up that's 40/1 now.

Top horses in terms of value on ability in no order if was nrnb.
1 melody of scotland
2 style de garde
3 Demopolis
4 Sao
5 msassa
6 elimay

If was real nrnb at the current prices id have gone huge ew on all of them.

On future hype
1. Saldier 40/1

Great, thanks Scooby.

 

[Johar]

I believe Melody of Scotland has fractured its withers. In all honesty I don't know how bad an injury that is but if anyone still wants to do it may be wise to stick to NRNB

 

[doctorwu]

Who's the 1st 3 then doctor?

And why not? The stats I assume.
Do you know these horses?
Not sure the owners thought that when they paid €310, , 000 for 1 of them alone.

Scooby,
Ive already told you in my opinion the winner has been out before the end of December. Its between the 2 JP horses, and as I've said all along that I'm a Espoir Dallen fan. You need to have racing experience/battle hardened to win a Triumph. I also like the Hendo horse but not sure if his form amounts to much.

 

[doctorwu]

stats...............
Its no coincidence that the last 5 winners(haven't looked any further back so could be much longer trend) had been out before the end of December. The trainers know what they have, thats why they trial them in the relevant races. Your list are Horses haven't been out because they haven't been ready. So to think they're up to winning a Triumph is nonsense Imo. Ask yourself why they haven't been out???
You need race savvy/battle hardened horses to win this race. Its all about finding the winner, I'm not one to have multiple bets in a race. I do my homework early and stick with what I believe in. Time will tell.

 

[Scooby91]

Scooby,
Ive already told you in my opinion the winner has been out before the end of December. Its between the 2 JP horses, and as I've said all along that I'm a Espoir Dallen fan. You need to have racing experience/battle hardened to win a Triumph. I also like the Hendo horse but not sure if his form amounts to much.

elimay for example has far more experience than espoir d'allen and Apple's shakira.

 

[doctorwu]

elimay for example has far more experience than espoir d'allen and Apple's shakira.

Lets just wait and see how much experience Elimay has if he lines up in the race.

Ive had a cover bet in this race, 1st one since Tiger Roll. For that very same reason I've backed Farclas as I liked the way he shaped behind Espoir Dallen. He could do a Tiger Roll hence the interest. Thats it from me, let the Horses do the talking now.

 

[archie]

There are stats and STATS. It's only 7 years ago that Zarkandar debuted on 26 February and won the Triumph 20 days later. This particular stat is nothing like as strong as 5yos in the Stayers (or the CH for that matter) but everyone is free to use whatever trends they prefer and good luck to them.

 

[Scooby91]

stats...............
Its no coincidence that the last 5 winners(haven't looked any further back so could be much longer trend) had been out before the end of December. The trainers know what they have, thats why they trial them in the relevant races. Your list are Horses haven't been out because they haven't been ready. So to think they're up to winning a Triumph is nonsense Imo. Ask yourself why they haven't been out???
You need race savvy/battle hardened horses to win this race. Its all about finding the winner, I'm not one to have multiple bets in a race. I do my homework early and stick with what I believe in. Time will tell.

I have
Espoir d'allen 33/1
Apple's shakira 33/1
Gumball 33/1 ( can't cash out)
Stormy ireland 40/1
Style de garde 40/1
Msassa 28.0
Demopolis 33/1


Cashed out 365 at full stake.
no probs in backing melody of scotland again nrnb.

Melody of scotland
Malaya
Act of valour


Any of the ones that haven't been out yet i listed before can win. Im not backing them all now. But im certainly looking out for them running. They don't need to be out early they've already ran in France some only purchased a month ago and ran recently. I expect atleast a few will be iout over here at the business end they won't be novices next year, And I'll be taking the prices straight after there race when they are. Or nrnb beforehand if I should be so lucky.

 

[lukemouaj]

Does anyone also think that the Juveniles are extremely good and hot competition this year?

Would it surprise anyone if routes get diverted for each horse...

Apples shakira to a novice race? Would get 12lbs and additional 7 for mares in the supreme... with the supreme not having a decent standout.... or maybe guarantee the mares novices hurdle?

Could anyone in yhe supreme line up give We have a dream, espoir d'allen, Sussex ranger 12lbs? They will all be rated 144+ come the review of ratings this weekend. Would mean u need a horse rated 154+ to be able to give them 12lbs?.

Considering buveur dair is rated 169... i cant see the next champion hurdle winner in that supreme race...

Any thoughts guys?

 

[Kevloaf]

My thoughts are the 4yo ratings are all inflated and higher than thru should be and year after year its proven.

I like that they're competitive against each other ... but none of them bar AS would be good enough despite what the ratings say.

Not saying it can't happen because it can and has with some sort horses like Binocular but I'll be happy to see it before paying to see it

 

[lukemouaj]

Is there a reason why they inflate them?

I mean to give apples shakira 19lbs... she would win any novice race... i mean thats a crazy amount of weight.