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Triumph Hurdle 2018

lukemouaj said:
Is there a reason why they inflate them?

I mean to give apples shakira 19lbs... she would win any novice race... i mean thats a crazy amount of weight.
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Smaller pool of horses. Far Easier to win juvenile races like Apple's shakira has. Id have thought she'd be well held in a supreme
Imagine nube negra or knight destroyer running in the race that claimantakforgan won. They'd be tailed off .

Apple's shakira has actually genuinely done very little. She's won well but beat horse that would get no where near a grade 1.
 
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lukemouaj said:
Is there a reason why they inflate them?

I mean to give apples shakira 19lbs... she would win any novice race... i mean thats a crazy amount of weight.
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I've got no evidence they they do ...

Apple's Shakira in the supreme would get 11lbs in total ... 7lbs for being a girl and 4lbs for being 4yo ... not 19lbs as that is an absolute whack.

She might be superb and maybe no horse could give her that, but if that was the case the Triumph and Mares novice would still be easier to win IMO. All her actual ratings are against 4yos too so it's really hard to compare.
 
But would Mcmanus throw two of top prospects at the triumph?

I just cant see another douvan or altior or buveur dair in the line up this year...

If i look at yesterdays tolworth, and Sussex ranger and We have a dream were in the race they would still be the two horses fighting out the finish there...
 
lukemouaj said:
But would Mcmanus throw two of top prospects at the triumph?

I just cant see another douvan or altior or buveur dair in the line up this year...

If i look at yesterdays tolworth, and Sussex ranger and We have a dream were in the race they would still be the two horses fighting out the finish there...
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That's a bold shout after finishing 1-2 in a heavy ground small field race against a few juveniles who'd be tailed off in a supreme. Completely different run races of a different standard yesterday on a differnet track

Only Nicky knows but I'd have thought we have a dream would get knowhere near claimantakinforgan.
 
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I may be wrong, im just really struggling to see a winner of the supreme and i wouldnt mind taing Shakira at a price NRNB for the supreme. However 5/1 which Skybet are offering is poor but would still take her over any others at the moment for supreme.
 
lukemouaj said:
I may be wrong, im just really struggling to see a winner of the supreme and i wouldnt mind taing Shakira at a price NRNB for the supreme. However 5/1 which Skybet are offering is poor but would still take her over any others at the moment for supreme.
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Back your own judgement if she ran there and you think that's a good price and you'd be happy with that price on the day.
You have nothing to lose.


Supreme looks pretty easy to me.

Claimantakforgan
If the cap fits
Sharjah
Mengli khan.
Winter soldier nrnb.
 
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Scooby91 said:
Supreme looks pretty easy to me.

Claimantakforgan
If the cap fits
Sharjah
Mengli khan.
Winter soldier nrnb.
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With Sayar included that's what I've got mine narrowed down to ...

Worst winner would be Sharjah from those but that'd still weild profit.

If i was starting fresh now I'd expect Claim to hit the frame ... but think MK and ITCF are the best on each side of the Irish Sea so far. Not bold shouts though, market has them at fair prices
 
Kevloaf said:
With Sayar included that's what I've got mine narrowed down to ...

Worst winner would be Sharjah from those but that'd still weild profit.

If i was starting fresh now I'd expect Claim to hit the frame ... but think MK and ITCF are the best on each side of the Irish Sea so far. Not bold shouts though, market has them at fair prices
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Yeh would be fairly difficult starting it now. Id prob back claimantakinforgan ew and winter soldier / if the cap fits nrnb and leave at that. Can't have sayyar at all personally his forms poor receiving huge amounts of weight and has had an injury. But if youve already backed him obviously you'll still have hope. As I have with a few others at big prices on he exchange but realistically its them 4. With an educated nrnb guess on winter soldier just in case.
 
From the RP for last season's race:
Key Trends
- last ran between 19 and 55 days ago. 10/10
- won at least 50% of hurdle races. 10/10
- top 3 finish last time out. 9/10 (6 won)
- adjusted RPR of at least 150. 8/10
- by a Group 1 winning sire. 8/10
- ran 2 or 3 times over hurdles. 7/10
 
I'm starting to worry Apples Shakira may go down the Mares Novice route myself.

If Style de Garde and WHAD keep progressing, Nicky knows he has two good options for the race, while JP might be content to leave it to Espoir d'allen. Gives both Nicky and JP an easy chance of a winner in that race and still good options in the Triumph.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'm starting to worry Apples Shakira may go down the Mares Novice route myself.

If Style de Garde and WHAD keep progressing, Nicky knows he has two good options for the race, while JP might be content to leave it to Espoir d'allen. Gives both Nicky and JP an easy chance of a winner in that race and still good options in the Triumph.
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I'm not sure JP would rely on his Irish juvenile being ahead ... having one from each side seems safer .... And he has DDC and Counitster for the Mares novice?

Hendo would surely have to KNOW his other juveniles are better than AS?
 
Kevloaf said:
I'm not sure JP would rely on his Irish juvenile being ahead ... having one from each side seems safer .... And he has DDC and Counitster for the Mares novice?

Hendo would surely have to KNOW his other juveniles are better than AS?
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But if he knows AS is easily the best of his juveniles, then he knows WHAD and Style de Garde are unlikely to win? If he thinks either could be good enough to win without AS in the race?

DDS has significant questions to answer after her last run for me... so would he rely on Countister? Obviously there are other horses to consider, but of those we've seen, it appears AS and Espoir d'Allen are his two most promising youngsters so he might be tempted to split them up.
 
He's also got a few exciting juveniles yet to run Kev. Say Demopolis comes out and wins impressively. Will certainly muddy the waters!
 
He ran Hargam Top Notch and Peace and Co against each other in the Triumph .... slightly different as the mares novice wasn't an option but I won't be expecting NH to split his up.

What I expect and what happens could be different :highly_amused:
 
I did notice Unibet were stand out biggest on AS too Kev which added to my concern!
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'm starting to worry Apples Shakira may go down the Mares Novice route myself.
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This race is one of the weaker events of the week and AS probably already achieved a RPR higher than previous winners and almost certainly higher RPR than those winners will have achieved at this stage of their career.
I think AS is almost certain to head for Triumph...
 
interestingly Boyles have cut Espoir Dallen into 7s from 10s
 
doctorwu said:
interestingly Boyles have cut Espoir Dallen into 7s from 10s
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Maybe they're about to go NRNB all races too, as Sky are 7/1 NRNB?

Or maybe not :D
 
Kev,
They'd shorten all of them if that was the case
 
On that point Kev, some shocking value with skybet NRNB
 
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