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Supreme Novices 2017

Yeah I agree its a really weak renewal this year. After Charlie Parcs' last run I think his speed sets him up for this race, Defi Du Seuil should go for the Triumph and win that (that might be my pocket talking as ive got him weaved through my multiples :p)
 
I understand where people are coming from regarding Moon racer as he just gets the job done isn't visually really impressive and you maybe can pick holes in his form but you can do that with nearly any horse. The 2 horses Charli parcs has beaten into second have both been beaten at Evans and odds on since and nothing else has come out of the enghein race and the 4th from his Kempton win was beaten further next time out. Agree however this looks a weak supreme and mullins looks to have an average crop of novices this year.
 
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Only time will tell if it is weak. Just because Mullins or anyone doesn't have a standout doesn't mean it is weak .... just makes it more likely that it is.

Here's to hoping we have 5 outstanding novices:highly_amused:
 
Another Mullins hotpot down, another one to come!

Irish Independent 13/01

Melon, one of the talking horses of Willie Mullins' yet to see combat this term, is nearing a much-awaited run.

The French-bred came off the Flat and has won over a mile and a half. He has long been 16/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle, in which Mullins has a stunning recent record.

"He is in better form, having just had a few little niggles," Mullins said. "There's enough talk about him anyway! He is nice though, I like him. I need to get him out as I don't want to wait another year as a novice with him. He'll be running very soon I'd say."

The trainer says he "wouldn't even like to contemplate Vroum Vroum Mag's target at the moment" but, if she does not run in the Sun Bets Stayers' Hurdle, he may have a lively alternative in Clondaw Warrior.
The Galway Hurdle winner chased the mare home at Leopardstown and is being strongly considered.

The trainer said: "He should enjoy the nice ground at Cheltenham. It's probably a very obvious thing he'd do well over three miles, given the trips he was going on the Flat. Connections are having some fun with him. Funny enough, he gets quite big between races - you wouldn't know he's been running. He has to be a bit of a dark horse for the Stayers' Hurdle."
 
Kevloaf said:
Only time will tell if it is weak. Just because Mullins or anyone doesn't have a standout doesn't mean it is weak .... just makes it more likely that it is.

Here's to hoping we have 5 outstanding novices:highly_amused:
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Hopefully we do Kev.
 
I feel thoroughly deflated by this race!
I've taken decent prices with Jenkins, Crack Mome, Cilaos Emery and Moon Racer (mostly with Free Bets) and the latter is the only one at the moment that I have any faith in BUT for some reason - I still have my doubts about MR.

I just can't get enthused about anything else at the moment...

Will keep my powder dry until the day (for this race...) and may not go in again at all - thoroughly fed up!
 
don't despair Leman. Im more confident with CE after the CM race on Saturday. The market has shortened CE up after that race. We just need to see him out in Jan/Feb. If this animal turns out to be a duffer my Tuesday book will look very dire indeed.
 
If Moon Racer was trained by Mullins or Hendo he would be sub 2s. I am not writing Ballandy of for the Neptune either.
 
I really can't remember a Cheltenham market quite like this one, I think we really have been spoilt in the last few seasons with the machine like animals that have been coming out of Mullins yard, although he still could have a few to come out and have at the festival he certainly isn't as dominant in the betting in some markets that he usually is, but on the flip side it does make for inflated prices which can be beneficial for us, one I'm looking to do now is bunk of early, and like him in a double with arilie beach in the mares novice for a cool 125/1 double!!
 
Im close to leaving this race now until the day, and hoping, wishing and praying that Jenkins regains fitness and makes it in the meantime.

The only appeal at the minute is Elgin (25/1) who is 5/2 fav for the Supreme trial at Haydock on Saturday. If he wins on Saturday hes surely heading into 14/1 territory. With Messier Des Obeux looking Neptune bound you'd think this would be Kings best chance in the Supreme
 
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I'm still not sold on Moon Racer. I'm very suspect of his form and think it's nothing to write home about. His Punchestown second was a very good run after the long layoff but the form behind hasn't worked out that great. Obviously Blow by Blow is still to be seen which could change that slightly. His jumping would be a worry for me still albeit i'm sure he's done plenty of schooling to sharpen up since November.

The saving grace for him is his Cheltenham record of course including festival form. The entry in the Champion hurdle along with the bullishness and confidence of the owners "could compete in any race at the festival" could be an indicator too that he is better than the bare form.

Back in November I thought he was a contender but would be found out by younger and more progressive horses. Obviously this hasn't happened and each potential new fav has fallen by the wayside week by week but it hasn't really made me like his chances anymore. He is definitely the most consistent horse in the betting and deserves favouritism but if he was to win the Supreme - for me it would likely be a weak supreme when we look back in a year or so and he's the best of a bad bunch.

I've seen some arguments that he is a horse that only does so much but I didn't get that impression from his bumper days where he pulled clear by 7 and 12L's on his first 2 runs where he toyed with horses and powered clear. The Champion Bumper win was only by 1.5L's but he was flat footed at the start and was always playing catch up so to even get back to win was impressive. I'm just not sure he has progressed over hurdles as much as the promise of his bumper performances suggested he might.

I'm pretty much siding with DeeBee on this and going to leave this market alone until a day or so before.
 
I completely agree about MR Jono.

I think, given the uncertainty of the Mullins horses, who has a solid record in the race, as well as Henderson's 'good thing' in Jenkins disappointing LTO, I would be hard pushed to nail down a solid bet right now, as like Jono, I don't find Moon Racer a very attractive bet right now. I also love a good stat/trend, and being an 8 year old really does not feel me with any confidence, given the record of older horses in this race.
 
My biggest niggle with MR is that he might be a bit fragile. Apart from getting on the right horses Ruby also deserves credit for the way he rides the race. No accident he wins so many. Lots of jocks seem overly keen to hit the front - Jamie Osborne described it once as seeing the lollypop at the top of the hill.
 
If they think MR is good enough to win the Supreme then they should be running him in the champion Hurdle, especially with all the doubts around key runners in the CH
 
Lets test the poll feature with the Supreme.

Please post your top 10 to win this race here and I will create a test poll based on your favs to see if this works.

Is it worth excluding favourites to make it more interesting?

10 selections each member please. :)
 
jono said:
I'm still not sold on Moon Racer.

Back in November I thought he was a contender but would be found out by younger and more progressive horses. Obviously this hasn't happened and each potential new fav has fallen by the wayside week by week but it hasn't really made me like his chances anymore. He is definitely the most consistent horse in the betting and deserves favouritism but if he was to win the Supreme - for me it would likely be a weak supreme when we look back in a year or so and he's the best of a bad bunch.
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Sometimes you need to believe what you've seen rather than what you want to see.

Although not exactly the same, Altior last season had the most obvious profile in hindsight. He had won at the track, had the highest rating going in to the race and wasn't fancied as much as he could have been because there was a talking horse from Ireland.

This year we have no talking horse, yet MR is a bigger price than Altior was.

Obviously they are different horses, but people weren't talking up Altior as a SUPERSTAR before the Supreme, but in hindsight his profile was obvious. (Now people are calling him the banker of the meeting - me included :highly_amused:)

As you say though, it MAY BE a bad bunch, but on what we have seen, he IS the best of them... and last year the talking horse wasn't good enough... this year, there isn;t even one of those to beat.
 
I know you've said it isn't the same scenario but I would say on the Altior example - his run at Kempton over Christmas was a massive performance in terms of ratings and I think was a rating good enough to win most Supremes? - or along those lines? So he had put in a top performance by Christmas time. (I'm not for one minute suggesting I thought he'd turn out as good as he has though at that stage though! - just that that run justified him as being a strong Supreme contender) His 3 runs prior didn't quite scream Supreme win though for sure.

I just don't see any of Moon Racers run as being that impressive despite winning or a performance that gets my attention like Altior did at Kempton. BUT of course that may not be needed this year. Such was his promise over bumpers I just wanted and expected to see more from him I think really. I do wonder if the injury has blunted some of his promise shown of his bumper season.

But again it then comes down to who and what performances have impressed most...and there lies the issue with this race right now - very few (for me)! I certainly wouldn't begrudge Moon Racer winning.

Personally I admit i've been spoilt by some incredibly strong Supreme renewals since I have got into racing which probably dampens my view on this years race. Even if the race didn't have huge depth like with Sprinter vs Cue Card vs Spirit Son vs Al Ferof or Jezki vs MTOY's vs C Fever you had the likes of Vautour and Douvan who suggested exceptional potential and promise.
 
The entire aren't out yet, are they??
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
The entire aren't out yet, are they??
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Dont think so.

Un De Sceaux boys think they have one for it ....


Owner Edward O'Connell has his sights set on Cheltenham

Connections of Chateau Conti are hoping their French recruit can cause an upset in an open year for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

The Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old handled very soft ground with aplomb on his Irish debut at Cork recently as he came home to win by an unextended seven and a half lengths.

His owner Edward O'Connell has already tasted Festival success with Un De Sceaux in the Arkle and son, Colm, already has his sights set on Cheltenham in March.

He said: "The ground was absolutely bottomless, but he was very good at Cork.

"It looked to me that he had everything else in trouble six furlongs out.

"He'll have to step up in class next time if he's to have any claims of going to Cheltenham.

"His pedigree suggests he could step up in trip later on, but, for now, I think two miles is as far as he wants to go.

"There's obviously the Deloitte (Leopardstown) he could run in, but what else Willie might have for that I wouldn't know as yet.

"This year the Supreme looks wide open but you can guarantee by the time the Cheltenham previews get going there'll be a 'rumour horse' that goes off very short.

"We'd like to think it could be us."
 
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