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Supreme Novices 2017

jono said:
I know you've said it isn't the same scenario but I would say on the Altior example - his run at Kempton over Christmas was a massive performance in terms of ratings and I think was a rating good enough to win most Supremes? - or along those lines? So he had put in a top performance by Christmas time. (I'm not for one minute suggesting I thought he'd turn out as good as he has though at that stage though! - just that that run justified him as being a strong Supreme contender) His 3 runs prior didn't quite scream Supreme win though for sure.

I just don't see any of Moon Racers run as being that impressive despite winning or a performance that gets my attention like Altior did at Kempton. BUT of course that may not be needed this year. Such was his promise over bumpers I just wanted and expected to see more from him I think really. I do wonder if the injury has blunted some of his promise shown of his bumper season.

But again it then comes down to who and what performances have impressed most...and there lies the issue with this race right now - very few (for me)! I certainly wouldn't begrudge Moon Racer winning.

Personally I admit i've been spoilt by some incredibly strong Supreme renewals since I have got into racing which probably dampens my view on this years race. Even if the race didn't have huge depth like with Sprinter vs Cue Card vs Spirit Son vs Al Ferof or Jezki vs MTOY's vs C Fever you had the likes of Vautour and Douvan who suggested exceptional potential and promise.
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You're right, I do agree his hurdles form isn't as standout as Altiors was. Maybe he is a bit over hyped because of his bumper form.

We really don't know how good these animals could be though, and Moon Racer although older, has been injured a few times and COULD have been a graded horse once upon a time? Only time will tell.

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THe 16s NRNB are available for the Chateu Conti horse... I don't think we'll see many takers though?
 
The Mysterious MELON has an entry at Gowran on thursday 26th January. Could this be the Mullins supreme horse?
 
SAMCRO said:
The Mysterious MELON has an entry at Gowran on thursday 26th January. Could this be the Mullins supreme horse?
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By default until he flops like the others have :devilish:

What is he likely to be up against? A Thursday debut and we're only really likely to find out that the horse actually exists?
 
I see Ballyandy goes straight to the Betfair hurdle for which he's the ante post fav. Surely if it goes close it stays at 2 miles & 33/1 then looks very big with little distance to make up on current fav moon racer & seemingly no superstar this year (yet!)
 
Cashew King said:
I see Ballyandy goes straight to the Betfair hurdle for which he's the ante post fav. Surely if it goes close it stays at 2 miles & 33/1 then looks very big with little distance to make up on current fav moon racer & seemingly no superstar this year (yet!)
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Not a bad angle, I'd sooner take the 25s NRNB though as I still feel he'll end up in the Neptune.

If he did line up though, should he be 5 times the price of the fav? I actually do think thats a good bet at this stage.... if he loses the betfair hurdle he won't run in the supreme will he?!
 
Kevloaf said:
Not a bad angle, I'd sooner take the 25s NRNB though as I still feel he'll end up in the Neptune.

If he did line up though, should he be 5 times the price of the fav? I actually do think thats a good bet at this stage.... if he loses the betfair hurdle he won't run in the supreme will he?!
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There's no rush - can't see price changing til after the Betfair but 25s NRNB is interesting as to me it either runs well so stays at 2 miles of runs bad in which case it's unlikely to win either race at the fez so you get your money back.
 
Cashew King said:
There's no rush - can't see price changing til after the Betfair but 25s NRNB is interesting as to me it either runs well so stays at 2 miles of runs bad in which case it's unlikely to win either race at the fez so you get your money back.
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I'd be in a rush before the Betfair hurdle.... if he wins that he'll at least half in price and as you said, if he runs poorly he won't be going over 2m in the Supreme anyway
 
Hi Kev - just meant you've probably got about 3 weeks before the race in which time there's a chance another firm could go NRNB - hopefully with quarter rather than fifth the odds - can't see the odds changing before the Betfair race.
 
Cashew King said:
Hi Kev - just meant you've probably got about 3 weeks before the race in which time there's a chance another firm could go NRNB - hopefully with quarter rather than fifth the odds - can't see the odds changing before the Betfair race.
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Ah right, sorry I thought you meant you would wait until after the race, defeating the point. Sorry I should have been more aware :encouragement:

Regardless, I will be looking out for it and throwing yet another dart at the Supreme.... :)
 
Maybe shouldnt read too much into it but no big names among previous winners in that Melon race at Gowran. Mullins often campiagns his good ones in the same races year on year.
 
Interview with Harold Kirk in the RP today.

Which purchase of yours yet to race are you most looking forward to seeing race?

Melon.
 
Melon obviously has had training problems, niggles and such, would be asking a lot to have one race then head to the supreme with a realistic chance of winning, wouldnt have enough experience for me.
 
Melon cut at paddys today, 16s into 14, then again 14s into 12. Cut at skybet into 10-1.
 
With the way the season has gone so far, you couldn't be anything more than hopeful regarding Melon.

I would expect a win (not even looked at other entires, but my instinct would tell me they it'll be a 1/2 or shorter) as it isn't a big race and he'll shorten up after it. Whether he deserves to or not will be inconclusive and he'll gain a bit of a following from everyone that loves Mullins that has already had a bubble burst....

PP have started the shortening already and I think that will be down to (or perhaps to entice) the loyal Mullins hype-horse followers.

I get the impresion they're rushing Melon, because of other "flops".... HOWEVER, all that said, I backed Melon at 20s as one of my very first bets because of the confirmed rumours about Ricci trying to buy him, which do still make sense, as Ricci has no valid contender...

I do have a 125/1 double on Melon and Altior so despite my negativity, I'll be hoping he lines up as fav like the rest of the Mullins battalion :devilish:
 
Having said I wouldn't be having another bet in this until the day, I've given in and backed Melon at 14/1.

My thinking is. ... He'll win comfortably on Thursday, in what looks a weak race. People will get carried away because of the lack of a superstar this season and I'll be able to lay off at a much shorter price than he should be.

Well that's the plan anyway!!:encouragement:
 
Very late for Melon...last 5 winners

Altior - started 10/10 - 4 runs
Douvan 22/11 - 2 runs
Vautour 7/12 - 3 runs
Champagne Fever 14/11 - 4 runs
Cinders & Ashes 18/11 - 4 runs
 
Really like Charli Parcs in this.

Really travelled all over the field at Chepstow on 27th December and Dying to see him out this weekend.

I'm hoping he goes this route cause I'm quite big on Merie Devie for the triumph.

Only gone in 2 points on Skybet single but have him in multiples with Jezki, Bellshill, Finians Rainbow and Faugheen

Do we think Charli Parcs is a supreme winner or best chance in the triumph?
 
I'd say he's just as likely to skip Cheltenham as run in the supreme. Would absolutely have to take nrnb? 8s?

I personally think his beating of master blueyes is better than anything I've seen overall but I haven't played yet. 4yo's don't have a good record ?
 
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