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Supreme Novices 2017

I won't be backing him ryan but I think there'll be at least half a dozen alternatives that get talked up or plunged nearer the time....
 
Thanks Ista
 
ryanh97 said:
What price do we see Melon going off at? I haven't been that fond of him I must admit but some of the competition is falling away (CP was my gut pick but not anymore, MR will probably be elsewhere). I might use Skybets offer and chuck a £20 at him but can't decide whether to take 4s now or wait for the day. I think he'll probably be a lot shorter on the day, anyone agree?
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I think Melon will open up longer than 3s on the day. Plus there will be offers with the likes of PP etc so I would wait personally
 
Ballyandy almost fav?

If MTOY wasn't good enough to win the Supreme after winning the betfair hurdle from a higher mark, then Ballyandy surely can't?

I took Ballyandy at 14/1 Any Race at the start of the season, had NO IDEA he might end up fav in the Supreme haha.

25/1 NRNB too ..... there is some gold in these pages if you've been knocking around long enough.... not sure who to credit :highly_amused:
 
It's absolutely mental this years supreme, either a pretty average bunch or full of smart prospects..
 
cwright23 said:
It's absolutely mental this years supreme, either a pretty average bunch or full of smart prospects..
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It's how they used to be cwright before the Mullins domination.
Wouldn't swear by it but when Captain CB beat Binocular I'm sure there were 8-1 co-favs of four....
 
Kevloaf said:
Ballyandy almost fav?

If MTOY wasn't good enough to win the Supreme after winning the betfair hurdle from a higher mark, then Ballyandy surely can't?

I took Ballyandy at 14/1 Any Race at the start of the season, had NO IDEA he might end up fav in the Supreme haha.

25/1 NRNB too ..... there is some gold in these pages if you've been knocking around long enough.... not sure who to credit :highly_amused:
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I am on the 14s as well. 10 pts worth! Backed BA and MR at 8s for any race
 
If MTOY wasn't good enough to win the Supreme after winning the betfair hurdle from a higher mark, then Ballyandy surely can't?
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Yeah MTOY won off 149. He was just a class above the field that day. He would have likely have won off any weight really.
As good as Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes were in their renewal (in pulling 6 lengths clear) they were thrown in off 135 and 136
 
Surely MWTT is much better value for this than BA?
 
Is Crack Mome ....... The DARK Horse in this race ???.
 
BigChaang said:
Is Crack Mome ....... The DARK Horse in this race ???.
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I still think he's got a good chance, granted his form took a knock last weekend, but he's yet to encounter anything like good ground and is likely to improve for it. Hopefully his jumping has improved as somehow he always manages to hit a few on the way round, but then again he is a novice.
 
Neon Wolf not had the target confirmed yet? Blue on Exchanges here, Red for the Neptune?

I think that is the only horse that could come in to the race that I'd back with any conviction... and that is based more on visual impression, a landed ghamnble and hype more than substance!
 
This race officially has me beat, I am completely clueless, no closer to finding the winner today than I was in April last year.
I read somewhere Ballyandy was running here, that might be where my interest ends up...
 
Istabraq said:
This race officially has me beat, I am completely clueless, no closer to finding the winner today than I was in April last year.
I read somewhere Ballyandy was running here, that might be where my interest ends up...
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Yeah you read right - trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has stated the six-year-old will head for the two-mile Grade One contest that opens the meeting on March 14. Odds are @ 5/1 now.
 
Ballyandy looks solid to me, his defeats to Moon Racer have been tactical affairs which I don't think suited him.

Where do people expect the pace to come from? High bridge, moon racer and melon will all be prominent I imagine but wouldn't think they'd want to make it. I wonder which higher price runners will turn up and if they will make the pace.
 
Welcome Unexposed :encouragement:

Good point on pace but will be a big field so something will take them on ?

Pat Keane on melon

Riddle me this, how is Willie Mullins’ Melon still favourite for Cheltenham’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

It’s not as if so-called Melon-mania remains in full flow. If punters, often referred to as “shrewdies” by the bookmakers, were still falling over each other trying to get on then surely the layers would have used the good offices of the Racing Post to have let us know by now.

But no, the silence, from all quarters, is simply deafening, with Melon this week essentially the same price as last week, despite the fact we are now aware his form has more holes in it than the Titanic.

Melon was supposed to have been a big festival plunge, after the ex-French horse made an impressive start in this country when taking a maiden hurdle by 10 lengths at Leopardstown on January 29.

Then last Saturday at Navan his immediate victim, Gordon Elliott’s Broken Soul, made his reappearance.

He was 4-11 to land a bad heat, with the mare, Miss Mardan, the only possible danger. Miss Mardan did just about everything wrong through the race, but passed the post four lengths in front of the runner-up, 50-1 shot King’s War with Broken Soul throwing in the towel up the straight to finish a further five lengths away in third.

So, Miss Mardan beat Broken Soul by almost as far as Melon, but I’ll bet if you offered Miss Mardan at 200-1 for the Supreme Novices’, you’d struggle to find a taker!

The form of the Leopardstown contest is simply worthless and yesterday Ladbrokes were only going 100-30 while Paddy Power (3-1) and Boylesports (11-4) were even meaner.

Now, if the race was today there is no way that Melon would be a worse price than what’s currently on offer and that’s even if he is the final choice of Ruby Walsh.
 
mayo said:
Welcome Unexposed :encouragement:

Good point on pace but will be a big field so something will take them on ?

Pat Keane on melon

Riddle me this, how is Willie Mullins’ Melon still favourite for Cheltenham’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

It’s not as if so-called Melon-mania remains in full flow. If punters, often referred to as “shrewdies” by the bookmakers, were still falling over each other trying to get on then surely the layers would have used the good offices of the Racing Post to have let us know by now.

But no, the silence, from all quarters, is simply deafening, with Melon this week essentially the same price as last week, despite the fact we are now aware his form has more holes in it than the Titanic.

Melon was supposed to have been a big festival plunge, after the ex-French horse made an impressive start in this country when taking a maiden hurdle by 10 lengths at Leopardstown on January 29.

Then last Saturday at Navan his immediate victim, Gordon Elliott’s Broken Soul, made his reappearance.

He was 4-11 to land a bad heat, with the mare, Miss Mardan, the only possible danger. Miss Mardan did just about everything wrong through the race, but passed the post four lengths in front of the runner-up, 50-1 shot King’s War with Broken Soul throwing in the towel up the straight to finish a further five lengths away in third.

So, Miss Mardan beat Broken Soul by almost as far as Melon, but I’ll bet if you offered Miss Mardan at 200-1 for the Supreme Novices’, you’d struggle to find a taker!

The form of the Leopardstown contest is simply worthless and yesterday Ladbrokes were only going 100-30 while Paddy Power (3-1) and Boylesports (11-4) were even meaner.

Now, if the race was today there is no way that Melon would be a worse price than what’s currently on offer and that’s even if he is the final choice of Ruby Walsh.
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There was a comment on here not so long ago which said something along the lines of it not being a difficult choice on who ruby will ride in the supreme (melon) thats got to mean Melon has been showing alot at home to almost totally disregard Bunk off early quickly after what that horse has achieved
 
Thank you Mayo, I've been a long term reader but finally decided to sign up and get involved in discussion.

It did cross my mind that Ruby my try and dictate the pace with Melon, adopting the same tactics as he previously has done successfully with Champagne Fever, Vautour, Douvan and Min, however I get the feeling he may just sit off the pace given Melons inexperience. I agree that something else will likely take them along up front given it should be a large enough field.

I couldn't brush aside Bunk off Early, he was cantering all over them 2 out at Leopardstown after racing so freely and in the end was outstayed by a good horse in Bacardys. I just don't see how how the likely faster conditions and shorter distance won't benefit him being by Zebedee and having the flat speed over a mile. I know Cheltenham is undulating but I don't think I could side against him on that alone. You have to take the stable comments on board, but they do get it wrong occasionally. I think I'd rather take the chance and if Melon hacks up then fair play
 
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