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Supreme Novices 2017

I agree with what you say there Faugheen_machine. I wouldn't think that willie mullins would be so upbeat without good reason.
 
I agree with you too FM. If Willie is singing a horses praises, its generally because they are a bit special.
 
Personally I'd ignore the form of his maiden win. How he did it was impressive an in the style of a good horse.

This stable have an unbelievable record in the supreme and have plenty of good horses to work against, so they should know if they have a decent horse in their hands. I'm inclined to believe the rumours and suspect he could be something special.

If it was from any other stable, I'd ignore it completely.

I agree too.

A lot of people were saying they haven't compared him with Vautour or Douvan or spoke as highly of him, that was until now, but I think WM has more respect for the owner of Vautour & Douvan than to compare someone elses horse(s) with theirs.

Now we finally have word from Mullins, and it was incredibly positive.
 
I wouldn't say having 4 in a race like this is a negative on any other horses chances, his last supreme entries by year are as follows:

2016 - 3 (Min the main hope, finished 2nd)

2015 - 4 (Douvan won the race)

2014 - 3 (Vautour won)

2013 - 3 (Champagne Feverwon)

2012 - 3 (Allure Of Illusion his best finisher in 5th)

I'd say he just throws a few darts at this regardless of what he has, I mean we know how good Douvan was and he had 3 other stablemates against him by different owners.

I think it is purely based on the different owners of these horses that will want to be involved at Cheltenham, nothing else. Melon seems to be the 'one' though!

What I am saying though, is the relative quality of his "other runners" is worse when he DOES have a star than this year when he doesn't (in the form book)... because he may MOVE a horse like Yorkhill who would also have a good chance in another race although areugably have a better chance of winning a Supreme? I certainly think Yorkhill would have been closer to Altior than Min was. - This year, his 3/4 horses for the Supreme will be of similar quality ... so the average might be the same but range of figures wouldn't be?


All much of a muchness until we know how good they all end up being of course :encouragement:
 
Personally I'd ignore the form of his maiden win. How he did it was impressive an in the style of a good horse.

This stable have an unbelievable record in the supreme and have plenty of good horses to work against, so they should know if they have a decent horse in their hands. I'm inclined to believe the rumours and suspect he could be something special.

If it was from any other stable, I'd ignore it completely.

Horrible for the sport, if actual form is replaced by huge yards winning schooling races and telling us two weeks before who is going to win based on them.

If that is the case, and Melon hacks up... then what really is the point in any week other than Cheltenham.

Short term view is cheering when Melon crosses the line in first place.



I am just as much of a sucker as everyone else for buying in to the hype, and I have a double with Altior at 125/1 that if it does land, I am sure I'll only be looking at the short term..... but I still can't see it being good for the long term.


Am I being a bit harsh on the master?
 
What I am saying though, is the relative quality of his "other runners" is worse when he DOES have a star than this year when he doesn't (in the form book)... because he may MOVE a horse like Yorkhill who would also have a good chance in another race although areugably have a better chance of winning a Supreme? I certainly think Yorkhill would have been closer to Altior than Min was. - This year, his 3/4 horses for the Supreme will be of similar quality ... so the average might be the same but range of figures wouldn't be?


All much of a muchness until we know how good they all end up being of course :encouragement:

I'm not sure we can say his horses will be of similar quality. None of us know how good Melon can be.
 
Horrible for the sport, if actual form is replaced by huge yards winning schooling races and telling us two weeks before who is going to win based on them.

If that is the case, and Melon hacks up... then what really is the point in any week other than Cheltenham.

Short term view is cheering when Melon crosses the line in first place.



I am just as much of a sucker as everyone else for buying in to the hype, and I have a double with Altior at 125/1 that if it does land, I am sure I'll only be looking at the short term..... but I still can't see it being good for the long term.


Am I being a bit harsh on the master?

Horrible for the sport? A tad harsh I would say.

They haven't purposely stuck to schooling races, he's obviously been difficult to train - WPM usually runs his best horses in graded races. Melon is the exception, not the rule.
 
I'm not sure we can say his horses will be of similar quality. None of us know how good Melon can be.

He did say yesterday he bought him to be a champion hurdler but he is bigger than he was so maybe will jump a fence one day.

I wonder if he'll be as good as Min.
 
Horrible for the sport? A tad harsh I would say.

They haven't purposely stuck to schooling races, he's obviously been difficult to train - WPM usually runs his best horses in graded races. Melon is the exception, not the rule.

A fair point. I was probably being a tad dramatic :encouragement:

It just would be disappointing if this worked particularly well and became more common.
 
I just think it is a bit sad when assessing any race when you are looking at the stable first and the horse second.

One of these years Willie Mullins isn't going to have such a wonderful Festival and as a result there will be a lot of punters with empty pockets. Plenty of those are probably already half-empty courtesy of the no shows.
 
I just think it is a bit sad when assessing any race when you are looking at the stable first and the horse second.

One of these years Willie Mullins isn't going to have such a wonderful Festival and as a result there will be a lot of punters with empty pockets. Plenty of those are probably already half-empty courtesy of the no shows.

Can't really agree with this myself. WPM's record in the Supreme is phenomenal. He will still probably account for 3 of the first 7 in the betting and if he suggests one appears to be infinitely better than the others at home, I think it would be daft not to listen. He's earnt the right to be the first port of call in this race for me.

He's not known for his hyperbole, and when he speaks about one like this, it's generally because they are a bit special.

I think it'd also a bit harsh that Melon is being crabbed in some quarters. It's not his fault he's only had one run, nor that the race looked weak. He could no more than he did and is firmly in the 'could be anything' bracket.
 
I think it'd also a bit harsh that Melon is being crabbed in some quarters. It's not his fault he's only had one run, nor that the race looked weak. He could no more than he did and is firmly in the 'could be anything' bracket.

I agree it isn't his fault but he will go to post with virtually the worst form of anything in the race.
 
Yes I agree. He will.

But for me, it counts as quite a lot that this stable rate him so highly. They get more right than they do wrong!
 
If WM says he's good as he says he is then I would back him e/w as a bet to nothing.
 
Is Ballyandy going here or the Neptune?
 
Willie's horses were all late starting this season because of the dry autumn. There is no unrestricted, winners of one, 2m novice hurdle in Ireland between the Moscow Flyer in mid January and the Deloitte in mid February so Bunk Off Early for one was forced to go from maiden to Grade 1. You'd like to think that race conditions in the Supreme will suit him better than the Deloitte.
Melon obviously works very well but no-one can know if he'll reproduce that in a couple of weeks time.]

I think Bunk Off Early has a great chance Archie. Ran a cracker in the Deloitte and easily despatched a next time out winner in his maiden. I was a little disconcerted he barely got a mention yesterday by Mullins.

You got any more of an inside line on him Archie?
 
I really like the name Bunk Off Early. That's as good a reason to back him as form is for Melon ;).

If Ballandy runs here I will have to back him but screams Neptune horse to my eye.