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Supreme Novices 2017

Morning Glory said:
I really like the name Bunk Off Early. That's as good a reason to back him as form is for Melon ;).

If Ballandy runs here I will have to back him but screams Neptune horse to my eye.
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:highly_amused:

Agree with Ballyandy comments too. If I back Ballyandy in this I'll also want to have Movewiththetimes on board too
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Can't really agree with this myself. WPM's record in the Supreme is phenomenal. He will still probably account for 3 of the first 7 in the betting and if he suggests one appears to be infinitely better than the others at home, I think it would be daft not to listen. He's earnt the right to be the first port of call in this race for me.

He's not known for his hyperbole, and when he speaks about one like this, it's generally because they are a bit special.

I think it'd also a bit harsh that Melon is being crabbed in some quarters. It's not his fault he's only had one run, nor that the race looked weak. He could no more than he did and is firmly in the 'could be anything' bracket.
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I completely agree. You can't argue WPM's record in the race, and for once at Cheltenham we know his horses for this race over other trainers, just look at the potential re-routed horses from the betting:

Moon Race - possible CH runner

Ballyandy - Potential Neptune runner and STD said on some podcast that currently leaning towards the Neptune but no decision has been made.

Charli Parcs - We don't know if he will run yet, but if he does the Triumph is more a possibility now given his run at the weekend.

Neon Wolf & Finian's Oscar - Recent money would suggest they are Neptune bound.

Defi Du Seuil - Looks Triumph Bound.

Consul Du Thaix - Coral Cup seems a likely target.

Airlie Beach - Novice Mares race.

If you look at the above you can see why the bookmakers would want to take precaution against the WPM runners, it's all 'if's and buts' but potentially the race could fall apart, and Melon definitely wouldn't have to be anything special to win it, the fact they seem to think he could be special only solidifies his claims at the head of the market now, given the record of the trainer and his confidence from yesterdays stable tour.

WPM would have 3 of the top 5 in the betting should the above get re-routed.
 
If Ballyandy gets sent to the Neptune , would (resucitate ?) a few of my L.15's !.
 
Mytentoryours1 said:
I think Bunk Off Early has a great chance Archie. Ran a cracker in the Deloitte and easily despatched a next time out winner in his maiden. I was a little disconcerted he barely got a mention yesterday by Mullins.

You got any more of an inside line on him Archie?
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Out of respect for the other owners, I can only really pass on what is already in the public domain or my personal opinion. It's no secret that Paul T thought that he'd have won the Deloitte had he settled or if the ground had been less testing or if the race had been 2 miles. I think that the UK form is solid rather than strong and I'd hope that we can get into the winners enclosure ie. finish in the first four.
 
archie said:
Out of respect for the other owners, I can only really pass on what is already in the public domain or my personal opinion. It's no secret that Paul T thought that he'd have won the Deloitte had he settled or if the ground had been less testing or if the race had been 2 miles. I think that the UK form is solid rather than strong and I'd hope that we can get into the winners enclosure ie. finish in the first four.
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Thanks Archie. Fingers crossed he gets there in one piece. Looking forward to seeing him run.
 
Top ville ben isn't in the entries for the supreme now on sky sports site.

Still on sporting life tho for some reason
 
jono said:
Ballyandy confirmed to run in the Supreme by NTD today
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Interesting.

And maybe another nail in the coffin of those fairly big Moon Racer ante post tickets? I mean MR has nothing to fear when it comes to Ballyandy, as has form over that horse, but the more and more horses that are declared for this race the more I can see MR being shifted to the CH.
 
David Pipe seems likely to wait until the final declaration stage to confirm Moon Racer's target at the Cheltenham Festival.

The lightly-raced eight-year-old hasn't been sighted since making it two from two over obstacles at the Open meeting at Cheltenham in November but is reported to be in good form ahead of a return to the Festival, where he took top honours in the 2015 Weatherbys Champion Bumper.

However, Pipe is still yet to decide whether the novice will run in the opening Sky Bet Supreme, or take on more experienced rivals in the Stan James Champion Hurdle on the same Tuesday card on March 14.

Pipe said: "Moon Racer is quite a deceiving horse at home, he covers a lot of ground and does it all very easy.

"He's proved on the track that he's a very good horse and we thought at the time that it was worth entering him in the Champion Hurdle. He'll be left in that and the Sky Bet Supreme at the five-day stage and we'll make a decision after that.


"Obviously it's a bit different nowadays with the supplementary stage in the Champion so we'll sit down with the owners and Tom Scu (-damore) and hopefully make the right decision.

"It's an open Champion Hurdle this year but it also looks an open Supreme as well so both are looking, on paper, quite open but I'm sure it'll seem different after the races have been run.

"Ballyandy's a very good horse and it might be third time lucky for them at Cheltenham but I hope not! It was nice to see the form franked (in the Betfair Hurdle) but my job is to get Moon Racer there in as good form as possible and he's in good shape.

"He had a mid-season break and it took us a little bit longer to get him going again so we didn't have chance to get another run into him. He's experienced enough, has had two hurdle races including one round Cheltenham so we're looking forward to it."

Nigel Twiston-Davies is all but certain last year's Champion Bumper winner Ballyandy will take the Supreme route at the Festival and couldn't hide his excitement at the prospect of potentially taking on Moon Racer again in the Festival curtain-raiser.

The trainer said: "We've just about totally decided we'll go for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

"He cantered to the last in the Betfair and quickened away nicely. We've always thought an awful lot of him and we can't understand why he didn't do better in his first three races but he managed to handicap himself nicely and let's go on to better things now.

"We checked his wind, checked everything and there was nothing amiss; maybe with time, he's just got better and better.

"He's got plenty of speed, he won there this time last year and we're really looking forward to it and hopefully we can take our revenge on Moon Racer."
 
PP now shortest on Melon at 3/1 and noticeably longest on Bunk Off early at 8/1.
 
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Can't Catch Me said:
PP now shortest on Melon at 3/1 and noticeably longest on Bunk Off early at 8/1.
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Ruby (who writes a blog on the PP site) has probably told them he is riding Melon and in preparation for that announcement have priced accordingly, just a guess, but wouldn't surprise me.
 
What price do we see Melon going off at? I haven't been that fond of him I must admit but some of the competition is falling away (CP was my gut pick but not anymore, MR will probably be elsewhere). I might use Skybets offer and chuck a £20 at him but can't decide whether to take 4s now or wait for the day. I think he'll probably be a lot shorter on the day, anyone agree?
 
ryanh97 said:
What price do we see Melon going off at? I haven't been that fond of him I must admit but some of the competition is falling away (CP was my gut pick but not anymore, MR will probably be elsewhere). I might use Skybets offer and chuck a £20 at him but can't decide whether to take 4s now or wait for the day. I think he'll probably be a lot shorter on the day, anyone agree?
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Maybe, but i have a feeling the locals will be lumping on the local horse Ballyandy and he could well go off favourite
 
donka said:
Maybe, but i have a feeling the locals will be lumping on the local horse Ballyandy and he could well go off favourite
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He's virtually favourite tonight
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
He's virtually favourite tonight
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I'm liking the confidence behind BA, I know NTD is bullish about most of his but this is a really good horse. He's travels great and i loved the way he sprinted towards the last in the betfair, and the pace of the supreme should be perfect.
 
The money has continued to come for him over the last week so it looks like they are confident.
 
A Paddypower rep told me all the main bookmakers would take each other on for this race
He thinks it will be 5/1 the field on the morning of the race
 
Cant see Melon being too short. Bookies will most certainly look to take him on. first race day 1, they'll be itching to price boost him etc.
 
Hang on then you reckon guys?
 
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