2017 I started the Supreme on -19 pts non runners
2018 was -23.5 pts non runners
This year, at the moment, it's +0.75 pts (hooray):triumphant:
However, my strongest fancies / best returns have been at different stages Annamix, Eldorado Allen, Angel's Breath and Klassical Dream - and for different reasons (rubbish/injured/Ballymore) none of them now remain confident selections which is why I'll be having an all green book in this race (again!)
Bit boring to read I imagine, so taking my position out of it, trying to pick the winner of this, or where the value is... I think you HAVE to take on Al Dancer and Fakir D'oudaries at their prices.
Al Dancer doesn't strike me as the best horse to ever try to win on the back of a handicap, so better horses have failed and NTD is so bullish so often that you have to take it with a pinch of salt. I'd be wary Betfair Hurdle form because the 20/1 and 100/1 shot placed and although he did it easily, he's an 11/4 shot - Vautour was 7/2J and principle of relative prices year-on-year forces me to look elsewhere.
Fakir D'oudaries - he's too short on what he's acheived on the track. Fusil Raffles has beaten some of the horses he beat at Cheltenham by further so we've no evidence he's the best of the juveniles and taking on older horses is not factored into his price, albeit he'll get 8 lbs. I'm not ruling him or Al Dancer out of winning, but they're not good prices to over come the negatives. Jospeh I think would run him against Sir Erec in the Triumph, he said he has no issue with running them against each other, but the owner is driving this move and Fakir and Sir Erec would need to both be top drawer to pull it off. I hope they can, but I wouldn't back Fakir at his price now.
Aramon is going a little under the radar, despite being a Grade 2 and Grade 1 winner for Willie Mullins. The nagging doubt is that Willie Mullins doesn't seem to have his string in the best form so we've not really seen the pecking order. He looked held by Quick Grabim and Klassical Dream for me would also be slightly ahead (albeit only slightly) so I do like him, but I get the impression he's not considered to be THEIR best, and that can't be good enough when he's not mopping up the division anyway?
Mister Fisher - likable attitude and place claims, but stable vibes would tell you Angel's Breath was thought of more highly and that'd put me off at a similar price to the above, who has better form. (Aramon)
I'll assume KD and AB don't run - which brings Elixir De Nutz next in the betting. I don't think he's standout value by any means, because Itchy Feet is still 33/1 and Thomas Darby 25/1 - and EDN is 10/1. They're all closely matched on various runs (with Grand Sancy giving them all a bit of a boost)
Vision D'honneur looks held by Aramon, I wouldn't have Felix Desjy on my mind....
So if I was having to start this race now, as of today (ignoring Fast Bucxk who's an obvious NRNB candidate now)
Itchy Feet 33/1 and Thomas Darby 25/1 - 2 against the field - each way.
Aramon 12/1 next best.
I'd back those 3 - I could let the others win at their prices.
