Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

[The King Pimm]

I don’t have the experience or not the depth of knowledge as you Kev but from your assessment have very similar thoughts and beliefs to yours with this race. I think Mister Fisher has solid claims for a place but have had it in my head that EDN and TD will be fighting this race out as AB & Klassical Dream won’t feature or if they do will come up short. From memory and except for Labik there haven’t been many outsiders win this and of late 2nd & 3rd in the market on the day have won this. I think there will be a few from the top 5 in the market not lining up on the day and think EdN & TD to shorten up quite a bit. My predictions I should point out are mainly powered by alcohol and fantasises but there do often come right!!

 

[Kevloaf]

sensible stuff as usual kev,
only thing i'd add is Thomas Darby has looked pretty exposed since his maiden win.
It's the one thing that disturbs me with this line of form.
Tolworth looking like it may be the key again this year.
And there's no doubt in my mind that the mullins novices are his reserves and therefore likely not good enough.
I'd be going with grand sancy/elixir reverse forecast right now.
with the fly's being al dancer and the rest of the field in a wide open race.

Yeah, on those form lines Grand Sancy and EDN both e/w wouldn't be far away from the thinking either.

Thomas Darby I'd be counting on improving going BACK to Cheltenham... Mister Fisher is also in and amoungst them on the Kempton run... so I'd chance the bigger prices.

 

[TC2]

Yeah, on those form lines Grand Sancy and EDN both e/w wouldn't be far away from the thinking either.

Thomas Darby I'd be counting on improving going BACK to Cheltenham... Mister Fisher is also in and amoungst them on the Kempton run... so I'd chance the bigger prices.

Thomas Darby seems quite reminiscent of Menorah, in terms of needing a really fast pace to come off, in order to put everything together

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Thomas Darby seems quite reminiscent of Menorah, in terms of needing a really fast pace to come off, in order to put everything together

Totally agree TC. I'm expecting him to run a massive race in the supreme, when he'll hopefully get decent ground and a strongly run 2 miles.

I keep taking the 40-50 on the exchanges when it's offered.

 

[Morley Street]

I find it a little strange why everyone is trying to make cases for exposed form lines. IMO the one form line that remains strong and keeps being boosted is that of Al Dancer’s. I get the price / value argument and I also aprreciate the dangers of taking NTD’s comments literally but clearly he is held in very high regard. Fortunately I’m on at bigger prices so don’t need to play now but I wouldn’t be looking anywhere else if not.

 

[delsie777]

Personally think the English form is all over the shop and I will take the Irish over these. When you consider how gutted Elliott was when Vision D'hon got stuffed by KD and Aramon, I think that could be the stand out form. I can see them both running here unless Fast Buck absolutely dots up today as some expect. With his staying power I personally think that KD would be a massive factor in this if he takes his chance. The drift for this is based purely on Willie saying he was not decided where he will go. Ruby said he thought KD would only go to the Ballymore if it was good ground. Now given that Cheltenham are absolutely not going to allow that to be the case on day 1, I think it's a massive overreaction,
The Thomas Darby thing is a mystery to me. What's the form that gives him a chance. Just remember him being done by Didtheysomethingorother! Couldn't have him on my mind and that makes Itchy Feet a no-go for me too.
Anyway let's see what Fast Buck today as he has form with Fakir which could be very relevant.

 

[Kevloaf]

I find it a little strange why everyone is trying to make cases for exposed form lines. IMO the one form line that remains strong and keeps being boosted is that of Al Dancer’s. I get the price / value argument and I also aprreciate the dangers of taking NTD’s comments literally but clearly he is held in very high regard. Fortunately I’m on at bigger prices so don’t need to play now but I wouldn’t be looking anywhere else if not.

You answered your own question MS

I started with the preface that it is about looking for what I'd back now, and those exposed formlines look under estimated, as we don't know how good Al Dancer is, and it's implied in his price that they're better...when we don't know that yet.

Al Dancer could take the field apart, but I wouldn't back him at 11/4 to find out.

 

[Kevloaf]

The Thomas Darby thing is a mystery to me. What's the form that gives him a chance. Just remember him being done by Didtheysomethingorother! Couldn't have him on my mind and that makes Itchy Feet a no-go for me too.
Anyway let's see what Fast Buck today as he has form with Fakir which could be very relevant.

Giving 5 lbs to Mister Fisher, beaten 5L

Beating Elixir De Nutz (grade 1 winner) by 3.25L who has gone on to beat Itchy Feet 1.25L and Grand Sancy 0.5L who just beat Sceau Royal in a handicap?



Mysterious is a bit of a push isn't it? You can't read those two sentences and have no concept of why he'd be in the conversation?

 

[Morley Street]

You answered your own question MS

I started with the preface that it is about looking for what I'd back now, and those exposed formlines look under estimated, as we don't know how good Al Dancer is, and it's implied in his price that they're better...when we don't know that yet.

Al Dancer could take the field apart, but I wouldn't back him at 11/4 to find out.

Why don’t we know how good Al Dancer is Kev? On a line through Lisp, Grand Sancy et al have 10 plus lengths to find. On a line through DTLYOT, Thomas Darby even more. Getaway Trump adds strength to the Betfair form, he’s already powered up the hill against horses who have subsequently franked the form and his early season form has also been boosted. I can understand you not wanting to take a short price, but can’t agree that we don’t know how good he is... as compared to the best of the English at the least.

 

[Kevloaf]

Why don’t we know how good Al Dancer is Kev? On a line through Lisp, Grand Sancy et al have 10 plus lengths to find. On a line through DTLYOT, Thomas Darby even more. Getaway Trump adds strength to the Betfair form, he’s already powered up the hill against horses who have subsequently franked the form and his early season form has also been boosted. I can understand you not wanting to take a short price, but can’t agree that we don’t know how good he is... as compared to the best of the English at the least.

I wouldn't trust Lisp ran his race in the re-arranged Betfair Hurdle is the easiest answer to that.

If he did, then yeah... but that's a big statement to say Lisp is a reliable yardstick, especially as we don't know how being a week after affected each horse for the Betfair Hurdle.

I think there is enough doubt about using Lisp to say we don't know that Al Dancer is as good as his rating suggests.

and Getaway Trump was beaten by Magic Dancer and Blu Cavalier, only giving him 7lbs rated 140 so if that is his true running, Champ is a complete fraud and would have no chance in the Ballymore... it's more reasonable to suggest Getaway Trump ran better in the Challow than he did in the Betfair Hurdle...

 

[delsie777]

Doesn't this more likely mean none of them are all that? Compared to the Irish?

 

[Kevloaf]

Doesn't this more likely mean none of them are all that? Compared to the Irish?

Impossible to know isn't it.

To be fair, could you say the same about Klasscial Dream, Aramon, Vision D'honneur, Quick Grabim, Easy Game?

Which of the Irish Supreme candidates has beaten all the others?

They don't seem all that to me either? It's the same arguement...

Just Fakir D'oudaries, who's beaten 4yo's that are being aimed at the Fred Winter?

 

[TC2]

I wouldn't trust Lisp ran his race in the re-arranged Betfair Hurdle is the easiest answer to that.

If he did, then yeah... but that's a big statement to say Lisp is a reliable yardstick, especially as we don't know how being a week after affected each horse for the Betfair Hurdle.

I think there is enough doubt about using Lisp to say we don't know that Al Dancer is as good as his rating suggests.

and Getaway Trump was beaten by Magic Dancer and Blu Cavalier, only giving him 7lbs rated 140 so if that is his true running, Champ is a complete fraud and would have no chance in the Ballymore... it's more reasonable to suggest Getaway Trump ran better in the Challow than he did in the Betfair Hurdle...

ive got lisp clocking a very similar time as he did in the ladbroke. Waiting to back him going up in trip. The betfair is probably viewed as being poor by some due to the rags filling out the places

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Impossible to know isn't it.

To be fair, could you say the same about Klasscial Dream, Aramon, Vision D'honneur, Quick Grabim, Easy Game?

Which of the Irish Supreme candidates has beaten all the others?

They don't seem all that to me either? It's the same arguement...

Just Fakir D'oudaries, who's beaten 4yo's that are being aimed at the Fred Winter?

Klassical Dream, of the ones he's been allowed to race against. Open to further improvement.

On Lisp, he had to carry top weight in soft conditions, and stumbled 3 out, that was the end of him and jockey didn't bother a great deal after that, wouldn't use that race as a basis of an argument for Al Dancer myself, not as a 125 rated horse got to within 3 3/4 lengths of Al Dancer.

 

[Kevloaf]

Klassical Dream, of the ones he's been allowed to race against. Open to further improvement.

...but doesn't look like he's coming here...

I said in my first bit, he's one of my main fancies... but you can't say he's got a lot in hand over Aramon can you.

 

[Kevloaf]

ive got lisp clocking a very similar time as he did in the ladbroke. Waiting to back him going up in trip. The betfair is probably viewed as being poor by some due to the rags filling out the places

I wouldn't care about times on different tracks TC2?
I'd give it no credibility at all to be honest - without wanting to be disrespectful of course.


The race was prety poor, doesn't mean that I don't think Al Dancer could blow the Supreme apart, BUT you are taking that chance at 11/4 (in terms of this debate)

 

[Quevega]

ive got lisp clocking a very similar time as he did in the ladbroke. Waiting to back him going up in trip. The betfair is probably viewed as being poor by some due to the rags filling out the places

It was poor.
That's a fact.
Worst ever renewal.

Don't mean Al Dancer can't win here though.

One way to look at it.
Imagine all the other contenders for the supreme running in the betfair off 141.
Would they have won that race in a similar fashion ?

 

[Folski]

...but doesn't look like he's coming here...

I said in my first bit, he's one of my main fancies... but you can't say he's got a lot in hand over Aramon can you.

If both Aramon & KD run in this I would see the same result as Tent and Fever. Aramon will be last off the bridle but won't get to KD.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

...but doesn't look like he's coming here...

I said in my first bit, he's one of my main fancies... but you can't say he's got a lot in hand over Aramon can you.

We won't know what improvement Willie has left to work with though? He might have a stone (unlikely) in hand come the day, but overall you are correct, looks as though he may go Ballymore now, bit annoying that!

 

[TC2]

It was poor.
That's a fact.
Worst ever renewal.

Don't mean Al Dancer can't win here though.

One way to look at it.
Imagine all the other contenders for the supreme running in the betfair off 141.
Would they have won that race in a similar fashion ?

Why is that a fact? I'm interested in times, and its very easy to compare it to the ladbroke.