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Supreme Novice Hurdle 2019

Probably worth adding some context, especially with people mentioning Elixir. EdN best Southfield Stone by 4 lengths in January carrying the same weight. Angels Breath lost by a head carrying 5lb more. EdN has Cheltenham form. But AB was only running his second race, and, if rumours to be believed, doing so only 10 days after his flu jab. If you think AB will come on for this, surely he’s still better than EdN?

Personally, I think everything is pointing to Aramon and Klassical Dream being better than the English set. FD time when he won was weak and i’m put off by his age.
 
TCH29 said:
Probably worth adding some context, especially with people mentioning Elixir. EdN best Southfield Stone by 4 lengths in January carrying the same weight. Angels Breath lost by a head carrying 5lb more. EdN has Cheltenham form. But AB was only running his second race, and, if rumours to be believed, doing so only 10 days after his flu jab. If you think AB will come on for this, surely he’s still better than EdN?

Personally, I think everything is pointing to Aramon and Klassical Dream being better than the English set. FD time when he won was weak and i’m put off by his age.
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Praying WM sees sense and sends KD here.
 
Nicky Henderson said: "Angels Breath needed the run and Nico said he just took a blow at the wrong moment. It's sharp enough around here, but nobody is despondent and I still think two miles is the right trip on a stiffer track. He's given them all 5lb and the front two have pulled clear, while he did run on.

"I'm not making excuses, but I do think there's plenty of improvement to come and he's had a proper race," he added. "I'm pleased with that and the ground was probably quick enough. There are a lot of positives, even though he got beat as he'd have learned tons today. I'd have thought we're still leaning towards the Supreme."
 
Folski said:
Praying WM sees sense and sends KD here.
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I think Aramon will beat him. Level weights. Decent ground. Sharper turn of foot. If he’s kept tucked in behind the pace setter, I think he’s got every chance.
 
Aramon will be fine on good to soft. Don't think he liked the ground at Leopardstown didn't change off his off fore up the straight.
 
TheRowebot said:
Nicky Henderson said: "Angels Breath needed the run and Nico said he just took a blow at the wrong moment. It's sharp enough around here, but nobody is despondent and I still think two miles is the right trip on a stiffer track. He's given them all 5lb and the front two have pulled clear, while he did run on.

"I'm not making excuses, but I do think there's plenty of improvement to come and he's had a proper race," he added. "I'm pleased with that and the ground was probably quick enough. There are a lot of positives, even though he got beat as he'd have learned tons today. I'd have thought we're still leaning towards the Supreme."
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The stiffer track does make sense... I wanted to say that earlier but didn't haha.

I've decided to cash out... even knowing he might come here.

Got him in a few multiples that'd soften the blow and happy with the nice amount of profit now.

Certianly not my idea of the winner, will need to digest and re-assess though as usual.
 
boopa said:
Aramon will be fine on good to soft. Don't think he liked the ground at Leopardstown didn't change off his off fore up the straight.
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Seen you mention this a couple of times.
Exactly what difference would it have made, if he's running in a straight line ?
It's surely better not to change leads when riding a finish ?
 
Kevloaf said:
The stiffer track does make sense... I wanted to say that earlier but didn't haha.

I've decided to cash out... even knowing he might come here.

Got him in a few multiples that'd soften the blow and happy with the nice amount of profit now.

Certianly not my idea of the winner, will need to digest and re-assess though as usual.
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I keep thinking what the reaction would have been like if AB had beaten Scarlet Dragon by 17l, breaking the track record.
 
Argh. Was out at football and havent seen the full race yet, just a clip on twitter of the closing stages.
Clinging to hope of the stiffer track, the interrupted prep and coming on for the run will see a better horse at chelt. A lot of hoping there.
Inclined at the minute to let all bets run (as nothing else in this gets me jiggy anyway).
Have the race to watch though and thinking to do.
 
Strangely that result has tightened my grip on this race. Have pretty much everything covered.
 
AB is a funny one for me now. He was a tough horse to assess before today with his debut over 4 hurdles, slow pace etc and is probably now even harder to assess him.

Take this race in isolation and not being 'knee-jerk' there's no major damage done. Track wouldn't have suited (RUK have also just said it was a course record if that helps/hinders?) and is a much different test to what he'll face at Cheltenham. Was only his third run and clearly connections were more focused on giving him an educational ride than just winning the race. I thought his jumping was good as whole. I certainly would be thinking Ballymore now over Supreme and with the owner having Al Dancer assumed that would now be a given but he's not without a chance at Cheltenham.

The problem is the hype and build up that lead up to this race which meant anything other than a comfortable win was deemed acceptable (and I fell into the hype).

The blunt truth though is his first 2 runs imo merely warrant him having an outside chance in either the Supreme or the Ballymore now.
I'm not ruling the horse out as there is enough promise I feel that it wouldn't shock me if he turned it around in March his current position in the betting is now correct at approx 8th in the Supreme and 6th in the Ballymore. On what we've seen so far his 2 runs don't warrant being any shorter bar I could make a case against a couple infront of him.

Henderson is still siding with the Supreme but Dai is away so will be interesting what comes out other the next few days.

A small part of me still wants to have him onside, particularly in the Ballymore but for now i'm happy to leave him be and have cashed out
 
I’n Personally of the opinion the Irish form is much the stronger here and like Aramon as we stand currently. Willie sending Klassical Dream to the Ballymore looks an interesting move and I can’t help but think he has another dart to fire at this alongside Aramon. With that in mind Fast Buck tomorrow in the first at Naas has to be of interest given he was only beat 3l by Fakir giving him a tonne of weight.
 
AnFiieLD. said:
I’n Personally of the opinion the Irish form is much the stronger here and like Aramon as we stand currently. Willie sending Klassical Dream to the Ballymore looks an interesting move and I can’t help but think he has another dart to fire at this alongside Aramon. With that in mind Fast Buck tomorrow in the first at Naas has to be of interest given he was only beat 3l by Fakir giving him a tonne of weight.
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no brainer 33-1 nrnb, everyone should be doing it who reads this.
was mentioned earlier by cod i think. possibly others too.
 
quevega said:
no brainer 33-1 nrnb, everyone should be doing it who reads this.
was mentioned earlier by cod i think. possibly others too.
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Lots of us watching the first at Naas tomorrow then! I managed to nick a bit of the 40s NRNB ew with 365.
 
quevega said:
no brainer 33-1 nrnb, everyone should be doing it who reads this.
was mentioned earlier by cod i think. possibly others too.
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Yeah, got 40's on Thursday when I made a case for it in post #2427 of this thread.

I definitely wasn't the first to mention his name but haven't seen a proper case made for him either other than the half effort I made then.

I've backed him for tomorrow, I suspect he will shorten further after tomorrow (if good enough). Already into 25's with 365, who were 40's during the week.
 
squiggsy68 said:
Lots of us watching the first at Naas tomorrow then! I managed to nick a bit of the 40s NRNB ew with 365.
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Was this today? Nice bet!
Only see 25-1 now!


edit: neverrmind I see price changed yesterday
 
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I haven’t seen the race at Kempton today but to post a time that’s beaten the course record and only lose by a head after a recent flu jab sounds very promising. I don’t quite understand the negativity. The race was never the plan but a b plan after the disruption recently so with all that in mind surely it’s a very decent prep. I’m still confident that AB will be firing on all cylinders on the 12th and think he will run in this race. He’s now 10/1 and too nice a price to discard.
 
I haven’t seen the race at Kempton today but to post a time that’s beaten the course record and only lose by a head after a recent flu jab sounds very promising. I don’t quite understand the negativity. The race was never the plan but a b plan after the disruption recently so with all that in mind surely it’s a very decent prep. I’m still confident that AB will be firing on all cylinders on the 12th and think he will run in this race. He’s now 10/1 and too nice a price to discard.
 
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