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Ryanair 2020

Personally don't believe any of the 'hard race' nonsense.

It's not that it's nonsense that horses won't be affected by particular races in the short to medium term (mentally and/or physically). This of course could be True.

It's just nonsense to 'guess' that subsequent poor performances can be attributed to any previous race exertions, as it's almost impossible to know. It's guesswork.

There are just as many horses that run well after hard races as the opposite, if not more.
 
Quevega said:
Personally don't believe any of the 'hard race' nonsense.

It's not that it's nonsense that horses won't be affected by particular races in the short to medium term (mentally and/or physically). This of course could be True.

It's just nonsense to 'guess' that subsequent poor performances can be attributed to any previous race exertions, as it's almost impossible to know. It's guesswork.

There are just as many horses that run well after hard races as the opposite, if not more.
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You don't believe it, or you don't want to believe it? :devilish:

It's certainly not nonsense IMO. I appreciate there will be some exceptions, but generally speaking a grueling race 26 days before Cheltenham is far from ideal for most horses. I personally don't think connections would have sent him if they had known it would be that tough. Nigel even said afterwards that ‘we thought we would come a good second and win £35,000 and go home very happy’.

Absolute sea of blue today on him though so perhaps Nigel has reported he has come out the race well.
 
Quevega said:
Personally don't believe any of the 'hard race' nonsense.

It's not that it's nonsense that horses won't be affected by particular races in the short to medium term (mentally and/or physically). This of course could be True.

It's just nonsense to 'guess' that subsequent poor performances can be attributed to any previous race exertions, as it's almost impossible to know. It's guesswork.

There are just as many horses that run well after hard races as the opposite, if not more.
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I genuinely believe his chances in the Ryanair have shortened significantly after that race. It was tough and he turned it on quite early in the race. Great win but I think it's A Plus Tard v Min now.
 
It's nothing to do with my bets.
I try not to talk through my bets and I'm more successful than most at remaining objective.
It's nonsense.:highly_amused:

The comment I made was in relation to the conversation people were having regarding Altior and Cyrname and the differing fortunes both have had since the race when they met.
 
Kevloaf said:
On that, does going too fast and having no energy left at the end mean it was a good performance?


Whichever way you carve it, it's not a 5 pt win bet kind of performance :p
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Make a note, and we'll come back to it :encouragement:
 
Quevega said:
Make a note, and we'll come back to it :encouragement:
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Ignore the fishing and answer the question.


It doesn't prove he can run at a sustained gallop?
It proves he can go as fast as a horse going to fast and not get home?

That won't help him up das hill?



I'll get round to reading the article in a bit :encouragement:
 
Kevloaf said:
Ignore the fishing and answer the question.


It doesn't prove he can run at a sustained gallop?
It proves he can go as fast as a horse going to fast and not get home?

That won't help him up das hill?



I'll get round to reading the article in a bit :encouragement:
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If you run a 400m race and run the first 100m at 400m average pace, then the next 200m at 200m pace, you're gonna slow down in the last 400m (probably going 800m pace).

Whereas the one that stays on the 400m pace is probably going to win (or at least catch up) as they've ran more efficiently.
I also think the Irish Champion hurdle was similar.

This race was the horserace example of this. Or at least how I perceived it. Could be wrong, but I liked what i saw.

If you simply go TOO quick for a crucial period in any race, it's impossible to sustain it, you'll suffer at some point.

You are correct though, that he'll need to run more efficiently next time to produce a better performance.
 
Read the article now. Bit preachy.

Side note - Is his tipping record actually that good? For the "king of the sectionals" which he seems to be, he doesn't exactly bang in winners from the fleeting glances I see.



If Traffic Fluide had stayed up, what price would Riders Onthe Storm have been pushed out to?
Maybe only 10s, but I reckon it'd have held for a lot longer.
If that had happened, and it was proven he didn't run effeciently, how keen would you be for him?
I'm just struggling to take the positives from the run... all he proved was he can go too fast :highly_amused:
 
“A Plus Tard in great form and I think we’re pretty much going for the Ryanair. We’ve left him in the Champion Chase and maybe if it came up bottomless you’d start to think about it, but I think we’re pretty much going for the Ryanair.





Not a big surprise to anyone :encouragement:


Jesus, 5/2 favourite though?



If I was starting this race from scratch it'd take me about 10 seconds to decide I was taking him on at that price... fortunately, I'm not :highly_amused:
 
How shite is this race actually...

5/2 A Plus Tard
7/2 Min
13/2 Frodon
8/1 Riders Onthe Storm
20/1 bar!


Un De Sceaux 20/1
Saint Kevisboss 25/1
Aso 33/1

All have an each way squeak?
 
Kevloaf said:
Read the article now. Bit preachy.

Side note - Is his tipping record actually that good? For the "king of the sectionals" which he seems to be, he doesn't exactly bang in winners from the fleeting glances I see.



If Traffic Fluide had stayed up, what price would Riders Onthe Storm have been pushed out to?
Maybe only 10s, but I reckon it'd have held for a lot longer.
If that had happened, and it was proven he didn't run efficiently, how keen would you be for him?
I'm just struggling to take the positives from the run... all he proved was he can go too fast :highly_amused:
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I think sectionals in National Hunt are something to dip in and out of as the variances in track, surface and everything else is simply too much.

But you can sometimes get clues and part explanations of some results. It can help to upgrade some defeats and/or victories, and also excuse some defeats or lesser performances.

I was particularly impressed how he went with and outlasted the highest rated horse in training on his own patch.
However, It's entirely possible he wasn't at his best, and Cyrname definitely didn't run efficiently.

I don't follow his tips and I'm not obsessed with sectionals after the event, as it does not provide any clue as to how the next race will be run in terms of pace. But pace and efficient running is 100% crucial to optimum performance.
 
To add to that.

I had my biggest bet outside of the Prestbury cup and Quevega bets, when I had 28pts on Don Cossack for his Gold cup (aftertime but relevant, and he was favourite anyway so I won't be the only one)

But it was based on the timings and running of the King George where he supposedly fell because he was tired.
Cue Card and Vautour had definitely gone too fast that day too.
 
Kevloaf said:
How shite is this race actually...

5/2 A Plus Tard
7/2 Min
13/2 Frodon
8/1 Riders Onthe Storm
20/1 bar!


Un De Sceaux 20/1
Saint Kevisboss 25/1
Aso 33/1

All have an each way squeak?
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Has Un De Sceaux been confirmed to be going for this? As much as he likes heavy ground I don't think he wants heavy ground in the Ryanair as he doesn't stay. But soft or better 20-1 is too big he must go off much shorter.
 
taylorch1990 said:
Has Un De Sceaux been confirmed to be going for this? As much as he likes heavy ground I don't think he wants heavy ground in the Ryanair as he doesn't stay. But soft or better 20-1 is too big he must go off much shorter.
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When I wrote the post I did put something about that being a freaking stupid price and then deleted it as I didn't want to swear and then never put it back in.


He's 12/1 NRNB, 20/1 available without and 25/1 on the exchange.

I'd love to see him in the QMCC though, and the NRNB prices aren't juicy enough with that being on my mind
 
I dont want to get into another discussion about Min but Un De Sceaux has raced against him twice and beaten him both times. Granted they were over 2 miles and Min may be a better horse for further and Un De Sceaux is 12 but he doesnt seem to be on the decline yet and I've had a bit on him EW as that seems real value to me.
 
Luckily managed to cash out for full stake on Un De Sceaux that bet literally last 12 hours.
 
Kevloaf said:
How shite is this race actually...

5/2 A Plus Tard
7/2 Min
13/2 Frodon
8/1 Riders Onthe Storm
20/1 bar!


Un De Sceaux 20/1
Saint Kevisboss 25/1
Aso 33/1

All have an each way squeak?
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Agree totally, this race looks a pile of shite.

Have only backed A Plus Tard at 16-1 in here, i wouldnt go anywhere near it at 5-2.

I think we may have a decent priced winner here, just cant nail down which one to pin my colours too
 
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