Ryanair 2020

[Quevega]

Been down the list on oddschecker (probably plenty not listed)

Of the genuine likely runners. best current prices.

Defi du seuil 8-1 - Solid favourite and price about right, but IMO could easily run in either of the other 2 big chases, depending on the competition and how his season pans out.

Min 12-1 - Festival regular but hasn't won one yet, but this price looks decent, just wonder if they'll target this race and not go 2 miles again (you'd think not)

Frodon 14-1 - Even as a reigning champion this doesn't look that good a price for some reason. Will only be 8 though and was transformed last season after the Wind Op. (worth noting early season form for nichols horses who've had out of season wind op's, I know magic saint has)

Duc des geneivres 14-1 - surely a poor arkle winner, but the trainer can keep improving these types so you never know, but the price looks bad to my eye.

A Plus Tard 20-1 - One race wonder ??, very hard to weigh up, 20-1 is about right.

Footpad 20-1 - Could just be another fading star so this price is not attractive just yet, surely most will want to see improved performances this year.

Road to respect 20-1 - similar to Footpad really.

Kalashnikov 20-1 - In and Out last year, but ended season with a nice win and now rated 155, 20-1 don't look attractive to me.

Janika 25-1 - Was one I was interested in for sure and has a great course record and toughs it out, but 25-1 don't quite tempt me.

Monalee 25-1 - Probably not a bad price considering this is likely destination and given everything dropping right could easily run well, but will be 9 and looks exposed enough now.

Aso 33-1 - will be 10 yrs old and surely this price will be available on the day.

Mengli Khan 33-1 - Not a good price and will most likely be campaigned for a handicap IMO. Already ran twice in the Summer with his trunks and sunglasses on.

Douvan 33-1 - If he comes back and runs anything like his best then this price will look ok. He will be 10 by then though and backing now is massive risk as he's less than those odds to retire I reckon. Would piss off Min fans if he does turn up though.

Siruh du Lac 40-1 - was getting more than a stone off Janika in brown advisory so needs to improve a fair bit

Glen Forsa 40-1 - Could improve further this year and looks likely to be in the early season 2m 5f cheltenham handicaps at the october and november meetings, off 150 will be interesting.

Might Bite 50-1 - This price was the most eyecatching to me as he may come back this season a better one than last, although he's 11 in March and this puts me off big time. Could easily be tried at this trip though this year, with front running tactics re-introduced.


My initial though was to back Might Bite at 50's until I realised he was 11. In fact I started this post with that intention, but he's 11.:highly_amused:

Can't bring myself to back Min, but 12-1 looks decent as he may well be close to favourite come the day, if Mullins places him carefully aiming at this race.

Janika is the one I'm close to backing and if B365 were 25-1 I probably would, but I'm going to hang fire for now.

If there's already a ryanair 2020 thread, apologies, as never checked.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

I have Frodon 16/1 and think there’s decent value about the reigning ‘champ’, I’m convinced he’ll be heading back for this.

Monalee had everything in his favour last year and was tanking down the hill until found little, no reason why he should improve the 8-10lb he’d need to to win this.

A Plus Tard is an interesting one, could well be a one race wonder but limit of his ability is unknown so could well turn out to be a live contender here.

Defi a worthy fav but I’m happy staying faithful to Frodon at double the price...

 

[Quevega]

Yep, It might be just his style of victories that leaves him a bit underestimated, and 14-1 is probably fair on reflection.
And I backed him at 20-1 to win this last year when they were considering the Gold cup instead.
So I ought to like him a bit more but I don't !

Obviously I left out CPS and Cyrname out, and one or two others (cadmium) as they look unlikely at this stage, but if they did rack up here they'd be serious contenders.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

With CPS and probably Altior in the CC, I’d be campaigning Defi at this if I were Hobbs.

Worthy favourite.

 

[Kevloaf]

Frodon probably is a fair price there isn't he.

Target certain? I'd assume so but then again at 8, nothing to lose in the big one?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

They have Top of the Game and Clan des Obeaux for the Gold Cup so I wouldn’t expect them to be earmarking that race for Frodon, though an injury or two might change that.
Cyrname is the curve ball....

 

[Kevloaf]

Did Clan Des Obeaux stay?

He could end up here. I'd probably really fancy him if he did.

The other Nicholls horses probably won't affect him, he's got a retained jockey after all.



I think he'll try and defend his crown, its just a niggle that would stop me backing him at the current price but I may sway. I do think it's borderline between a good bet and the right price.

Backing previous winners as a blind rule does pay

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I prefer Min @ 12/1 than Defi Du Seuil @ 8/1. I think Min has been waiting for this step up in trip (at the festival) for some time now.

Will wait for more bookmakers to price up Voix Du Reve for the race too, as this is his trip. He didn't get the chance to prove it fully at the festival last season as he unseated Ruby (after making a bit of headway), but he sure as hell made up for it at Fairyhouse when hammering Real Steel (who he likely would have finished ahead of in the JLT anyway), Winter Escape (who many fancied on here for the JLT), and Mengli Khan (who only finished 9 1/4 lengths behind Defi @ Cheltenham).

I'm not sure why he was mostly campaigned at 2m last season (I did make this point last season), and although managing to win a Grade 2 it was never going to be ideal for him in the long term.

Of the others I agree with a couple of you, who have already stated Janika. Looks a fair bet that one.

 

[Native River]

Certainly agree with Janika, he hasn't got too much to find in terms of ratings to be up there, and with him only being 6YO there is some scope for that improvement, and you would imagine this will be his target with him now being 162, one I'll be keeping a close eye on for sure!

 

[archie]

Interesting to look at the official ratings:

162 Defi Du Seuil
171 Min
169 Frodon
162 Duc Des Genievres
160 A Plus Tard
165 Footpad
166 Road To Respect
155 Kalashnikov
162 Janika
164 Monalee
168 Aso
154 Mengli Khan
167? Douvan
150 Siruh Du Lac
150 Glen Forsa
167 Might Bite

Everyone will have their own opinion on what progression/regression any individual horse might show. Others that you might consider are:
168 Ballyoisin
165 Balko Des Flos
160 Le Richebourg
158 Voix Du Reve
155 Darasso
and, of course,
162 Cadmium

Tinkering with Cadmium's diet and exercise regime seemed to bring about improvement at Aintree so he too doesn't have to find much to be a contender. I'd certainly be hopeful that he could again take care of Janika and his form in the Drinmore has worked out nicely. He'll be tried on the graded route and I've already mentioned to those in charge that he and Kemboy have raced at the same meeting 3 times with a 100% win record in the 6 races. 25/1 any race looks fair.

 

[Quevega]

Tinkering with his diet sounds fishy to me
But on a serious note
I’m sure you’ve answered this previously but remind me why cadmium hasn’t been to Cheltenham before

 

[Quevega]

I prefer Min @ 12/1 than Defi Du Seuil @ 8/1. I think Min has been waiting for this step up in trip (at the festival) for some time now.

Will wait for more bookmakers to price up Voix Du Reve for the race too, as this is his trip. He didn't get the chance to prove it fully at the festival last season as he unseated Ruby (after making a bit of headway), but he sure as hell made up for it at Fairyhouse when hammering Real Steel (who he likely would have finished ahead of in the JLT anyway), Winter Escape (who many fancied on here for the JLT), and Mengli Khan (who only finished 9 1/4 lengths behind Defi @ Cheltenham).

I'm not sure why he was mostly campaigned at 2m last season (I did make this point last season), and although managing to win a Grade 2 it was never going to be ideal for him in the long term.

Of the others

Still in the voix du reve fanclub I see cod
Was about to come back with a clever reply then checked his age and he’s only 7 ??
Surely this must be checked
He seems to have been around for ages.
Good on his day though int he ?

 

[archie]

Tinkering with his diet sounds fishy to me
But on a serious note
I’m sure you’ve answered this previously but remind me why cadmium hasn’t been to Cheltenham before

His novice season started late (which is why he was eligible for the Drinmore last season) and he just wasn't ready in March. Last season he was set for the Grand Annual but they felt that he had too much weight in the softening ground.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Thanks archie.

Eight of those in that list will be second season chasers, so would assume they are most likely to improve more than the more experienced horses, some of whom may have already peaked and had their day!

Interesting that DDS & DDG are rated the same, yet there was some 16 lengths between them at Punchestown, and many alluded to the fact that the Arkle wasn't exactly a spectacle in terms of competition.

Tough race at the moment, I'm sure one or two of the second season horses will improve a fair bit, and then to weigh up against the best of the current crop, in this case Min.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Still in the voix du reve fanclub I see cod
Was about to come back with a clever reply then checked his age and he’s only 7 ??
Surely this must be checked
He seems to have been around for ages.
Good on his day though int he ?

I was massively gutted when he unseated at the festival, genuinely believe he would have got competitive. He proved his well being by beating the field at Fairyhouse next time out, and so he should have if I believed he was going to be there or thereabouts at Cheltenham the race before.

As I said before, I'm not sure what the 2m races were about in his campaign last season, though I'm not sure on the number of races around the 2m 4f mark that he could have contested in Ireland, so maybe this is the reason why.

I don't think he's a superstar, but I think he can be a player, more so last season when he was a novice, just got to wait and see if he can improve enough for his second season as a chaser now, a bit like with them all.

 

[taylorch1990]

At the moment for me the 2 I like at the prices are A Plus Tard and Janika. A Plus Tard was the most impressive winner at the festival though time will tell whether the race was any good or not. He's only 5 and has raced 6 times so must be open to a lot of improvement too. Janika is just tough as anything and always runs his race and as others have said doesn't need to improve much at the weights. I think Defi is a fair favourite and Frodon is probably overpriced but not one I can get on board with. However I don't fancy Min at all I think he's an overrated horse and wouldn't back him at any price.

 

[Saxon Warrior]

At the moment for me the 2 I like at the prices are A Plus Tard and Janika. A Plus Tard was the most impressive winner at the festival though time will tell whether the race was any good or not. He's only 5 and has raced 6 times so must be open to a lot of improvement too. Janika is just tough as anything and always runs his race and as others have said doesn't need to improve much at the weights. I think Defi is a fair favourite and Frodon is probably overpriced but not one I can get on board with. However I don't fancy Min at all I think he's an overrated horse and wouldn't back him at any price.

You must be a mind-reader. This is the way that I view the race, at this early stage.

 

[archie]

You'd have to respect the Cheltenham run of A Plus Tard but it seems to be over a stone better than anything he's done before or since albeit in a small sample size. More evidence required.

Janika has improved his rating from 145 to 162 without winning in 4 races. It may just be a case of Nicky getting to know him but he did have quite a lot of races in France so further improvement isn't a given.

 

[jack1092]

You'd have to respect the Cheltenham run of A Plus Tard but it seems to be over a stone better than anything he's done before or since albeit in a small sample size. More evidence required.

Janika has improved his rating from 145 to 162 without winning in 4 races. It may just be a case of Nicky getting to know him but he did have quite a lot of races in France so further improvement isn't a given.

Couldn't agree more on A Plus Tard Archie.

Min, Ballyosisin and Darasso would be the 3 i like from your list at an early stage.....Last two still have a bit to prove.

 

[Kevloaf]

At the moment for me the 2 I like at the prices are A Plus Tard and Janika. A Plus Tard was the most impressive winner at the festival though time will tell whether the race was any good or not. He's only 5 and has raced 6 times so must be open to a lot of improvement too. Janika is just tough as anything and always runs his race and as others have said doesn't need to improve much at the weights. I think Defi is a fair favourite and Frodon is probably overpriced but not one I can get on board with. However I don't fancy Min at all I think he's an overrated horse and wouldn't back him at any price.

A 20 length grade 1 win, over a grade 1 winner in Politilogue, in the race they finished together in the year before.

That race in my eyes proves Min is a class act on his best form.

He used to be over rated ... now he's the best horse in the race (officially) and isn't shortest price ... that's under-estimating him, is it not?

** I appreciate he may well not end up being the "best horse in the race" but you should get my drift.



If you wouldn't back Min at 1000/1 you're an oddity anyone who says they wouldn't back a horse at any price can have no idea on value at all