Ryanair 2020

[Quevega]

A 20 length grade 1 win, over a grade 1 winner in Politilogue, in the race they finished together in the year before.

That race in my eyes proves Min is a class act on his best form.

He used to be over rated ... now he's the best horse in the race (officially) and isn't shortest price ... that's under-estimating him, is it not?

** I appreciate he may well not end up being the "best horse in the race" but you should get my drift.



If you wouldn't back Min at 1000/1 you're an oddity anyone who says they wouldn't back a horse at any price can have no idea on value at all

Knew taylor's last sentence would bring out one of the Min squad.
If there are no curve balls in this race and one of the lively unlikely types doesn't turn up.
It's quite possible you end up with Frodon and Min Jt Fav's under 5-1 or thereabouts.
They both look likely to be aimed here.
It's the second season chasers that might threaten these, as it's hard to imagine they'll all end up Gold Cuppers.

 

[taylorch1990]

A 20 length grade 1 win, over a grade 1 winner in Politilogue, in the race they finished together in the year before.

That race in my eyes proves Min is a class act on his best form.

He used to be over rated ... now he's the best horse in the race (officially) and isn't shortest price ... that's under-estimating him, is it not?

** I appreciate he may well not end up being the "best horse in the race" but you should get my drift.



If you wouldn't back Min at 1000/1 you're an oddity anyone who says they wouldn't back a horse at any price can have no idea on value at all

The Aintree win was impressive but he's also underwhelmed in enough races like the Champion Chase this year and both his runs at the Punchestown Festival for me to have enough doubts about how good he really is. He's a horse I wouldn't trust to show that Aintree form again. But that's the point of this forum for us to have differing opinions.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

The Aintree win was impressive but he's also underwhelmed in enough races like the Champion Chase this year and both his runs at the Punchestown Festival for me to have enough doubts about how good he really is. He's a horse I wouldn't trust to show that Aintree form again. But that's the point of this forum for us to have differing opinions.

2m isn't his trip, that's why, although he was classy enough to win over that trip in easier races.

They should have stepped him up last season IMO.

Massive Min fan here, end up defending him pretty much every season :highly_amused:

 

[Kevloaf]

The Aintree win was impressive but he's also underwhelmed in enough races like the Champion Chase this year and both his runs at the Punchestown Festival for me to have enough doubts about how good he really is. He's a horse I wouldn't trust to show that Aintree form again. But that's the point of this forum for us to have differing opinions.

Whereas Janika has done nothing but impress in his 4/4 defeats in handicap company?

Absolutely about different opinions, but ultimately it's about whether they're right or wrong .... I'm certain it's wrong to say you wouldn't back Min at any price.

I wouldn't back Janika at the price he is for this, yet two decent judges in yourself and hamptonfox fancy him....

Money where our mouths are ...

 

[taylorch1990]

2m isn't his trip, that's why, although he was classy enough to win over that trip in easier races.

They should have stepped him up last season IMO.

Massive Min fan here, end up defending him pretty much every season :highly_amused:

The step up in trip might be the answer and I guess we'll see this season but until he backs up that Aintree performance there's enough to put me off him.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

2m isn't his trip, that's why, although he was classy enough to win over that trip in easier races.

They should have stepped him up last season IMO.

Massive Min fan here, end up defending him pretty much every season :highly_amused:

WPM was kicking himself after the Champion Chase for deciding to drop Min in behind rather than put it up to Altior. He didn't run his race and it would have been a golden opportunity to beat Altior.

I'm not a massive fan of Min but I'd be getting involved if he were to drift a couple of points. 12/1 seems fair enough at this stage to me.

 

[Salubrious Chin]

Firmly in the Min camp here, with CPS 2nd favourite for the Champion Chase if he stays sound then surely no question Min ends up here.

Whilst his Cheltenham run this year was extremely poor (9L to Politologue), at the middle distance trip he won by 20L against the same opponent.

It looks a competitive race next year but Hills are standout price @ 12/1 (13/1 boosted). 2-3pts higher than any other bookie. Assuming the John Durkan in December is his first start again, if he performs well and early talk of his Festival target is the Ryanair then I wouldn't be surprised to see around 6-1

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Great hearing all the opinions but I’m struggling to see the interest in Janika.
I appreciate there are better prices out there but I’m limited to Sky for AP bets and they have Janika 14/1 with Frodon 10/1, seems nonsensical to me they should be so close in the market.
For me Janika should be closer 40/1...

 

[Hurricane fly]

Firmly in the Min camp here, with CPS 2nd favourite for the Champion Chase if he stays sound then surely no question Min ends up here.

Whilst his Cheltenham run this year was extremely poor (9L to Politologue), at the middle distance trip he won by 20L against the same opponent.

It looks a competitive race next year but Hills are standout price @ 12/1 (13/1 boosted). 2-3pts higher than any other bookie. Assuming the John Durkan in December is his first start again, if he performs well and early talk of his Festival target is the Ryanair then I wouldn't be surprised to see around 6-1

Even if CPS gets injured there is no way that Min should be in the CC, WPM would still have the arkle winner and Cilaos Emery to fireat it

Min belongs in the Ryanair. I’ve got a double rolling into him but he is on my list to back more, however there will come a point when he isn’t value, and that probably comes after each Frodon victory. The public will pile into him and Mins price will hold (imo).

 

[Kevloaf]

He is 6 going on 7, and been 2nd from top weight at Cheltenham twice is the main case I think.

But as a French horse, (stereotypically more forward st a younger age) I'm inclined to think his progression will be limited.

25/1, best price I really don't think is a good bet.

I don't see why he'd step up to be grade 1 class?

 

[jono]

From what I've seen of Janika I'd be wary about him in a battle. Not sure it was just the weight that had him at a disadvantage last season myself

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Janika has clearly been handicapped on his runs against Siruh du Luc, but he was beaten (on UK debut) at Ascot by Hells Kitchen who went up to mid 150s and was beaten an aggregate of 100l from his 3 subsequent runs.
Makes me question the ratings to both Janika and SDL and certainly, as others have mentioned, does not point to a G1 campaign...

 

[TCH29]

I like Janika, and he’s only 6. Big season for him. Frodon started last year’s campaign off 158 having finished 13 of 16 in the previous Ryanair. You know Janika handles Cheltenham after his two runs, he jumps well and travels smoothly. His rating of 162 may be too high, but it wouldn’t take much improvement, at an age where improvement is rife, to be right there with a shout.

 

[Kevloaf]

I like Janika, and he’s only 6. Big season for him. Frodon started last year’s campaign off 158 having finished 13 of 16 in the previous Ryanair. You know Janika handles Cheltenham after his two runs, he jumps well and travels smoothly. His rating of 162 may be too high, but it wouldn’t take much improvement, at an age where improvement is rife, to be right there with a shout.

Do you think having a French profile means he may not improve as much?

 

[Kautostar]

I think last years ryanair was an awful renewal....aso finished 2nd!! The entire field will struggle to win a race between them this season imo. Min and defi look solid this time with a plus tard and janika the potential improvers who may or may not be good enough. Cyrname is the wild card if connections decide to chance him going left handed

 

[Kevloaf]

I think last years ryanair was an awful renewal....aso finished 2nd!! The entire field will struggle to win a race between them this season imo. Min and defi look solid this time with a plus tard and janika the potential improvers who may or may not be good enough. Cyrname is the wild card if connections decide to chance him going left handed

Aso, in his defense, with cut in the ground, is a pretty decent animal...

The Ryanair is always poor though, and as much as people protest and think it'll be different, it'll always be the same bar the possibility of Mullins shuffling his pack (especially with the Gold Cup monkey off his back).

 

[Kautostar]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

 

[Kevloaf]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

We're they just exploring his relative experience last year aiming at the JLT?

He was a king George bet for me this year but I've cashed it.

Im not sure we'll see him on these shores again

 

[TCH29]

Do you think having a French profile means he may not improve as much?

Good question, Kev. Very possibly. His runs weren’t progressive on the face of it last year; he just looked to be “at his level”. But then Hendo campaigned him terribly on the face of things. If I was M&S I would be furious with him. How many places giving away a stone to the field did he have?! With better planning he could have won a big pot.

He may not improve, but 162 would put him as a 20/1 shot or shorter on race day in the Ryanair. Any improvement to say 167, and he’s going off at 5s. Most of the contenders were rated around 163-169 last year. Monalee went off 5/1 off 163.

I know that’s more of a trading mindset, but at this stage of the season i’m looking for horses who ran well last year at Cheltenham, have a likely target, but who are 25s+. I don’t think Janika can stay handicapping through March 2020 at 162 today; it would be a waste. So you’d think Ryanair the target. If so, just a small improvement and he’s a principle candidate in the market. Say he wins his first half decent grades race over 2m 5f somewhere, you’d think 25/1 would go very quickly, even if he was the fav and expected to win.

 

[TCH29]

Master Dino would be another I’m interested in but I’ve no idea how bad his injury was and if he’ll even run this season?

Yes, loved the look of Master Dino, but have the same fear and I don’t think the price is juicy enough given all the unknowns. Also worth pointing out he’s a 5 yr old rated 157...compared to Janika at 6yrs and 162, who we’ve all seen handle Cheltenham, and is twice the price.