RSA Chase 2018

[Scooby91]

However PP best form is in handicaps while rated at 145/146 meanwhile Monalees is in graded company and has beaten PP straight up over 3m


Will end up being an on the day pick for me

No doubt,
handicaps are no where near what presenting percy is about to encounter.

If that was the case might asell make monbeg notorious and fountains windfall co favs alomg side and disregard all the graded races.

 

[cpfcpatriot]

Points 1 4 and 5 are absolute nonsense kev the last line in point 4 answers itself.
In a 2 horse race only a fall or an act of god could save you.

I’m pretty sure Russell has a retainer to ride the Kelly/Reynolds horses, which would render point 1 as a moot one.

 

[kinloch brae]

No doubt,
handicaps are no where near what presenting percy is about to encounter.

If that was the case might asell make monbeg notorious and fountains windfall co favs alomg side and disregard all the graded races.

I would say the jury is very much out as to how good last year's Albert Bartlett and that's probably being kind.

Given that they might both have been over the top it might not be the wisest idea to draw definite conclusion about the Punchestown meeting.

No, the RSA is not handicap but that doesn't mean what Presenting Percy has done in handicaps isn't good enough to win it. He looks a very good jumper and a strong stayer. Ideally, I think he wants a strong pace to run at which you are far more likely to get at Cheltenham than in small field Graded races elsewhere.

I think Presenting Percy could have shaken them up in the Gold Cup this year so I will be very disappointed if he can't take care of Monalee should he oppose him in the RSA. I would be far more concerned about his run style as a hold up horse will always need that bit of luck in running.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

There is only 1 over priced horse left in this race now for me and I've mentioned her enough already.

As for the market principles I think PP would beat Monalee in this race, but now I don't believe Monalee will end up here anyway.

 

[Scooby91]

I would say the jury is very much out as to how good last year's Albert Bartlett and that's probably being kind.

Given that they might both have been over the top it might not be the wisest idea to draw definite conclusion about the Punchestown meeting.

No, the RSA is not handicap but that doesn't mean what Presenting Percy has done in handicaps isn't good enough to win it. He looks a very good jumper and a strong stayer. Ideally, I think he wants a strong pace to run at which you are far more likely to get at Cheltenham than in small field Graded races elsewhere.

I think Presenting Percy could have shaken them up in the Gold Cup this year so I will be very disappointed if he can't take care of Monalee should he oppose him in the RSA. I would be far more concerned about his run style as a hold up horse will always need that bit of luck in running.

Not long left now until we find out who wins. I'll be personally shocked if fountains windfall won. And suprised if presenting percy wins. The one thing in the latter's favour like kev said he gets the trip very well. However I don't believe he can go the clip and jump well enough while doing it. He was tenderly handled after he was beaten by shattered love and jury duty but there was a reason for him not being able to win in the first place, before davy gave up trying and saved him for another day. The same reason i believe that will come out in the rsa. Yanworth I believe has a bigger engine and can get away with it to an extent. But it may well find him out also.

Dounikos
Invitation only
Monalee
Yanworth
Alboum photo.
Which ever ones get split rsa , one will win rsa one will win the jlt. IMO

 

[kinloch brae]

Whatever happens I don't think it will be a massive surprise if next year Presenting Percy is in the Gold Cup and Monalee is in the Ryanair.

 

[Kevloaf]

Haha well that post caused some healthy debate. I think its quite easy to knock Percys claims too in all honesty, but i don't agree that it isn't significant that Davy is on PP. He might get it wrong BUT there is no way he couldn't have picked to ride Monalee if he wanted to.

I also don't understand how point 4 isn't relevant scooby. Monalee hasn't put in his best performances over further, PP has ... So one is faster than the other.

Don Poli and Lord Windemere won RSAs so I am not worried about PP being "taken off his feet" ... Monalee isn't good enough to do that, for all that he won the Flogas he's hardly destroyed the field

 

[Scooby91]

Haha well that post caused some healthy debate. I think its quite easy to knock Percys claims too in all honesty, but i don't agree that it isn't significant that Davy is on PP. He might get it wrong BUT there is no way he couldn't have picked to ride Monalee if he wanted to.

I also don't understand how point 4 isn't relevant scooby. Monalee hasn't put in his best performances over further, PP has ... So one is faster than the other.

Don Poli and Lord Windemere won RSAs so I am not worried about PP being "taken off his feet" ... Monalee isn't good enough to do that, for all that he won the Flogas he's hardly destroyed the field

Point 4. Monalee finished infront of pp over 3 miles on decent ground. Iv said before near the start of the season and I still think now that monalee and alboum photo uphold that form for me. Presenting percy has side stepped the the best graded chases the trainer and owner have said that themselves.

He dosent magically become better to me because he won a 3m4 handicap chase against the same horses beaten in the thyestes which in turn was won easily by another novice who himself has been beaten easily by the graded ran horses.

Don't get me wrong id love to own PP. he's a very nice horse going to take you to the Saturday races. But he's not going to be winning at the very highest level off level weights for me.

 

[SeanRock]

As was mentioned earlier Davy Russell is on a retainer for PP's owners he doesn't really have a choice to make. He's only ridden Monalee twice anyway. I'm expecting Monalee to come on again for Cheltenham. I can't imagine he had a great prep for the Flogas after his well documented fall at Christmas. Should be more to come.

 

[Kevloaf]

As was mentioned earlier Davy Russell is on a retainer for PP's owners he doesn't really have a choice to make. He's only ridden Monalee twice anyway. I'm expecting Monalee to come on again for Cheltenham. I can't imagine he had a great prep for the Flogas after his well documented fall at Christmas. Should be more to come.

He also is retained by other owners ... So you can't say he didn't have a choice?

Monalee connections have quite clearly stated that Danny couldn't commit to THEIR horse, which implies it was an option.

How much relevance it has to the chances can be debated ...


Monalee didn't win that race against PP either so when that harms I wouldn't take it too literally.

PP certainly has to prove it in graded company I appreciate that, I'm just now if the opinion he will. I much prefer his profile for the race. If prefer him to peak in March again than in Feb which Monalee might have just done ...? He might not though

 

[Folski]

All the hate for PP seems to be stemming from his 2nd novice chase start over 2m6f in heavy heavy ground in a small field where they didn't go a gallop. Holywell won the pertemps off 140 and a lot less impressively than PP did off 146. Holywell was 4th in a gold cup when the ground went against him.

 

[Scooby91]

All the hate for PP seems to be stemming from his 2nd novice chase start over 2m6f in heavy heavy ground in a small field where they didn't go a gallop. Holywell won the pertemps off 140 and a lot less impressively than PP did off 146. Holywell was 4th in a gold cup when the ground went against him.

Theres no hate just reality of him being far too short for what he's accomplished.

Apple's jade and buveur dair are short but they're almost certs. PP is in an open race where his form just dosent standout and his price makes no sense what so ever to me .
Nothing for me to continue moaning about as that's very often a big positive when 2 i complete disregard are in the top 3 of the betting. Ok at 14/1 PP I poss may take an ew chance as part of a book. But at 10/1 I honestly wouldn't. Amd at this price leaves me im disbelief

It's completely price related. PP and fountains windfall are the ones you should be able to take a risk on at decent prices imo. I in hope that they can come good at the top level.

They're priced like they've won the flogas and kauto star for me

 

[Robbante]

Presenting Percy one i'll be taking on as well. The way he's getting smashed up and the talk coming from Ireland would have you think he's unbeatable. He's held on all known hurdle form by a couple of the other contenders, and on chase form I wouldn't say he's improved a great deal. Beat De Plotting Shed 3 lengths first up all out, before getting hammered by Jury Duty and Shattered Love. Very impressive then over 3m 5 (suggesting longer trips are the way to go with him), and you can strike a line through his run over hurdles last time. It showed his well being but beating Augusta Kate 5 lengths is nothing to shout about.

You could argue he hasn't had his ground yet this year, that there are excuses for his under par runs. But he's yet to show that he's more than a very good handicapper, until he does (and it might be that he does just that in March) then i'll oppose at 3/1. I'm sure he won't be far away but for me he's a 10/12s price

 

[Folski]

He's 3/1 NRNB, the other 2 are well odds on, I don't think you can compare his price to their prices right now.

Has festival form, stays over further. Fair enough he probably hasn't beaten that yardstick yet to show he's an out and out grade 1 horse but every other horse in the race has more question marks than PP, in my opinion.

Monalee - led over 3m at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year and didn't see it out.
Fountains Windfall - Flat track bully?
Yanworth - Jumping an issue, Kings recent festival record.
Al Bum Photo - no form over 3m
Invitation Only - apparently outstayed in Flogas.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

He's 3/1 NRNB, the other 2 are well odds on, I don't think you can compare his price to their prices right now.

Has festival form, stays over further. Fair enough he probably hasn't beaten that yardstick yet to show he's an out and out grade 1 horse but every other horse in the race has more question marks than PP, in my opinion.

Monalee - led over 3m at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year and didn't see it out.
Fountains Windfall - Flat track bully?
Yanworth - Jumping an issue, Kings recent festival record.
Al Bum Photo - no form over 3m
Invitation Only - apparently outstayed in Flogas.

Any thoughts on Shattered Love, as she is continuously overlooked by many, and is 20/1 (not NRNB) with this the confirmed target according to Gordon Elliott, and has finished ahead of PP already this season. I don't live by excuses, so I have none for PP being beat by her?

 

[Robbante]

He's 3/1 NRNB, the other 2 are well odds on, I don't think you can compare his price to their prices right now.

Has festival form, stays over further. Fair enough he probably hasn't beaten that yardstick yet to show he's an out and out grade 1 horse but every other horse in the race has more question marks than PP, in my opinion.

Monalee - led over 3m at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year and didn't see it out.
Fountains Windfall - Flat track bully?
Yanworth - Jumping an issue, Kings recent festival record.
Al Bum Photo - no form over 3m
Invitation Only - apparently outstayed in Flogas.

Can look at the Monalee not staying angle from the other side - if ridden quietly and coming from off the pace (rather than forcing it) then would surely have more speed than PP down the stretch. I've long said that i'd want to make Yanworth my biggest winner in this race (albeit have Fountains at 40s so will have to go some) if he's confirmed. His jumping and Kings record don't put me off, have always seen the horse as a battler and a stayer (who does nothing when in front) and his one go at 3 miles would back that up

 

[Scooby91]

He's 3/1 NRNB, the other 2 are well odds on, I don't think you can compare his price to their prices right now.

Has festival form, stays over further. Fair enough he probably hasn't beaten that yardstick yet to show he's an out and out grade 1 horse but every other horse in the race has more question marks than PP, in my opinion.

Monalee - led over 3m at Cheltenham and Punchestown last year and didn't see it out.
Fountains Windfall - Flat track bully?
Yanworth - Jumping an issue, Kings recent festival record.
Al Bum Photo - no form over 3m
Invitation Only - apparently outstayed in Flogas.

Completely different scenarios but one that always stuck in the front of my mind in regards to invitation only and duty jury.
Is that native river and deffinately red looked like non stayers behind blaklion when he won he trial before the rsa. They just so happened to run in to the rsa winner blaklion.

Probably makes no sense lol. But I always think of it when I'm looking at horses being beat in what I believe to be very strong races. Theres always context to each race and you can certainly run in to one that makes you look more ungenuine than you are

 

[Scooby91]

Any thoughts on Shattered Love, as she is continuously overlooked by many, and is 20/1 (not NRNB) with this the confirmed target according to Gordon Elliott, and has finished ahead of PP already this season. I don't live by excuses, so I have none for PP being beat by her?

I have no excuses for pp myself. She's a good solid horse jury duty and her are smashing horses. Just think the flogas was the next level up.
Nothing against her at all I would have liked her is she was a price in the 4 miler. Where she obviously isn't running.

 

[kinloch brae]

All the hate for PP seems to be stemming from his 2nd novice chase start over 2m6f in heavy heavy ground in a small field where they didn't go a gallop. Holywell won the pertemps off 140 and a lot less impressively than PP did off 146. Holywell was 4th in a gold cup when the ground went against him.

I would say one of best comparisons would be with Forgive N Forget. He landed a massive gamble in the equivalent of the Pertemps. He carried less weight than Presenting Percy and probably didn't win as easily. He had a similar racing style.

Monalee sat in behind in the Albert Bartlett and went to the front seemingly travelling easily but as we know he ended up being well beaten. I really think he is best suited to making the running. That in itself might not be easy to achieve and if he did get to the front I am not sure he could go that hard knowing he had a strong stayer in behind. In a JLT I don't think it would be such a balancing act. Much more a point and fire.

Lots of people have talked up the Flogas but I find it hard to believe that there were five genuine Grade 1 horses in that race. We know the favourite didn't turn up and the second who was very, very weak in the market was pretty much outjumped by the whole field. He had previously looked as if he was going to beat Dounikos very easily so I am not sure he even reproduced that run.

 

[Scooby91]

I would say one of best comparisons would be with Forgive N Forget. He landed a massive gamble in the equivalent of the Pertemps. He carried less weight than Presenting Percy and probably didn't win as easily. He had a similar racing style.

Monalee sat in behind in the Albert Bartlett and went to the front seemingly travelling easily but as we know he ended up being well beaten. I really think he is best suited to making the running. That in itself might not be easy to achieve and if he did get to the front I am not sure he could go that hard knowing he had a strong stayer in behind. In a JLT I don't think it would be such a balancing act. Much more a point and fire.

Lots of people have talked up the Flogas but I find it hard to believe that there were five genuine Grade 1 horses in that race. We know the favourite didn't turn up and the second who was very, very weak in the market was pretty much outjumped by the whole field. He had previously looked as if he was going to beat Dounikos very easily so I am not sure he even reproduced that run.

The flogas was the best renewal I have ever seen in my life time. Packed with quality due to no choice of getting a proper test elsewhere. and each trainer believing there's is the one.

Over the coming months and years we will see how it plays out .