RSA Chase 2018

[kinloch brae]

OK, we'll look at it another way, which bit of chase form makes you believe PP is better than Jury Duty / Shattered Love over fences?

The handicap win? Or the Grade 2 where he finished behind both Jury Duty & Shattered Love?

FWIW, I'm not adament Shattered Love will win the RSA, but I feel she is massively overpriced and overlooked, and that PP is actually massively over hyped, probably because his connection can plot a handicap win, but as Scooby has said, this is a Grade 1 Novice Chase, not a handicap.

For whatever reason I think Presenting Percy didn't perform against Jury Duty and Shattered Love. Small field, lack of pace and testing ground are not his ideal. He might not have been right on the day and he is also 1/6 at Punchestown. I am only speculating I don't know the exact reason for that performance. If you want to accept it at face value that's up to you. If he were going into the Festival off the back of that run I might be concerned.

If Elliott thought Jury Duty had in fact progressed and accepted that result as a true indication why is he going for the four miler? Personally, I don't think he will stay and I think Presenting Percy is comfortably his superior over hurdles and fences.

Sorry, but Presenting Percy would almost certainly be even shorter if he were trained by Mullins or Henderson.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

For anyone doubting PP take a look at season's Pertemps again, he absolutely bolted up. Jury Duty is a good horse but not in the same class as PP imo.

I'm happily putting a line through the race in November. PP is all about a spring campaign. RSA probably followed by Irish National (as Jono pointed out).

He may not be a price to everyone's liking but he's certainly a major player in the RSA and it'll take a good one to beat him, imo.

 

[Scooby91]

For anyone doubting PP take a look at season's Pertemps again, he absolutely bolted up. Jury Duty is a good horse but not in the same class as PP imo.

I'm happily putting a line through the race in November. PP is all about a spring campaign. RSA probably followed by Irish National (as Jono pointed out).

He may not be a price to everyone's liking but he's certainly a major player in the RSA and it'll take a good one to beat him, imo.

Jury duty was not quite in the same class as pp over hurdles correct
Chasing is a different game and .
It's not dury duty in the rsa that pp has to worry about. He wont turn around the punchestown form imo.
Roll on the rsa.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Jury duty was not in the same class as pp over hurdles correct
Chasing a different game and .
It's not dury duty in the rsa that pp has to worry about.
Roll on the rsa.

We'll soon find out. Plenty of debate to be had in the meantime.

 

[jono]

Some good debate in here. I certainly don't see Presenting Percy as a banker but do see him as the mostly likely winner and the correct favourite. That said with Presenting Percy I keep thinking back to the National Hunt Chase with him...

I think the owners are working backwards from the Irish National no doubt. We've seen that race do no harm whatsoever on the prospects of future national winners (Vicente Scottish Grans National) - despite the marathon trip it's actually not as gruelling as one may think due to the slow pace they often go and then sprint up the hill. So I don't think the end goal has had much effect on the choice of race, and you could even argue the RSA is actually the harder race. Now for me, unlike here, PP would be a banker in the 4 miler. As much as I like Elegant Escape and some of the others, he is head and shoulders above the rest of that market and if they had got say Derek O'Connor or Jamie Codd to ride, then it's even more so a no contest for me.

Are they fussed with the grade 1 over a grade 2? I don't think so (again think the final aim is the National) and there's only £15k difference between the 2 races. The fact they are willing to give that up means either of the following...

A) Connections see him as a cert in either race so why not go for the RSA, and then let Mall Dini take up the 4 miler

B) they see Mall Dini as the cert in the 4 miler

C) they see PP and MD as a collective so are just viewing it as the best races for both I.e PP may win the 4 miler but MD would struggle to win another race where as MD could in the 4 miler and PP could win the RSA. Neither cents but best chances for both

D) they want to keep the Davy partnership intact and are willing to run in another race for that

Now maybe I could see the idea that putting another jockey on the horse and then back with Davy for the National could break the rhythm and partnership built up but I really don't think they'd give up a sure Festival win vs risk nothing with Davy onboard in the RSA

So the fact they are willing to run in the RSA instead for me, means they are incredibly confident of his chances and maybe he is the banker in this race that some are saying.

I've obviously made the case in the JLT for why I think Monalee should and is best suited for that race. If he did as seems likely come here I do have my doubts he would beat the favourite

 

[Greasy]

Do we think Shattered Love will run here?

 

[kinloch brae]

Some good debate in here. I certainly don't see Presenting Percy as a banker but do see him as the mostly likely winner and the correct favourite. That said with Presenting Percy I keep thinking back to the National Hunt Chase with him...

I think the owners are working backwards from the Irish National no doubt. We've seen that race do no harm whatsoever on the prospects of future national winners (Vicente Scottish Grans National) - despite the marathon trip it's actually not as gruelling as one may think due to the slow pace they often go and then sprint up the hill. So I don't think the end goal has had much effect on the choice of race, and you could even argue the RSA is actually the harder race. Now for me, unlike here, PP would be a banker in the 4 miler. As much as I like Elegant Escape and some of the others, he is head and shoulders above the rest of that market and if they had got say Derek O'Connor or Jamie Codd to ride, then it's even more so a no contest for me.

Are they fussed with the grade 1 over a grade 2? I don't think so (again think the final aim is the National) and there's only £15k difference between the 2 races. The fact they are willing to give that up means either of the following...

A) Connections see him as a cert in either race so why not go for the RSA, and then let Mall Dini take up the 4 miler

B) they see Mall Dini as the cert in the 4 miler

C) they see PP and MD as a collective so are just viewing it as the best races for both I.e PP may win the 4 miler but MD would struggle to win another race where as MD could in the 4 miler and PP could win the RSA. Neither cents but best chances for both

D) they want to keep the Davy partnership intact and are willing to run in another race for that

Now maybe I could see the idea that putting another jockey on the horse and then back with Davy for the National could break the rhythm and partnership built up but I really don't think they'd give up a sure Festival win vs risk nothing with Davy onboard in the RSA

So the fact they are willing to run in the RSA instead for me, means they are incredibly confident of his chances and maybe he is the banker in this race that some are saying.

I've obviously made the case in the JLT for why I think Monalee should and is best suited for that race. If he did as seems likely come here I do have my doubts he would beat the favourite

The difference here is Presenting Percy isn't going for the four miler whereas there may still perhaps a slim chance Monalee may go JLT.

I would hope they view Presenting Percy as next year's Gold Cup winner. I had a speculative bet for this year's renewal and will have another go at next year's. The four miler is by far the lesser option and basically he is too good for that race. The field will be made up of horses who are not considered good enough to win an RSA.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Do we think Shattered Love will run here?

According to Gordon Elliott she is coming here, yeah.

 

[kinloch brae]

I would say one of best comparisons would be with Forgive N Forget. He landed a massive gamble in the equivalent of the Pertemps. He carried less weight than Presenting Percy and probably didn't win as easily. He had a similar racing style.

Monalee sat in behind in the Albert Bartlett and went to the front seemingly travelling easily but as we know he ended up being well beaten. I really think he is best suited to making the running. That in itself might not be easy to achieve and if he did get to the front I am not sure he could go that hard knowing he had a strong stayer in behind. In a JLT I don't think it would be such a balancing act. Much more a point and fire.

Lots of people have talked up the Flogas but I find it hard to believe that there were five genuine Grade 1 horses in that race. We know the favourite didn't turn up and the second who was very, very weak in the market was pretty much outjumped by the whole field. He had previously looked as if he was going to beat Dounikos very easily so I am not sure he even reproduced that run.

It seems I wasn't as alone as I thought about the value of the Flogas. Walsh cast doubts yesterday and Tom Segal does similar in the Weekender. It is a pretty obvious point about the horses finishing in a heap but Ruby doesn't make a habit of devaluing races involving his own stable. Segal also suggested that Monalee should definitely go JLT.

 

[Scooby91]

Anthony Honeyball could let his smart novice Fountains Windfall tackle Native River in Saturday's Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury.

Already rated 158 after just two completed starts over fences, Fountains Windfall only has 2lb to find with Saphir Du Rheu, who finished fifth in the Gold Cup last year.

He also has options at Warwick, Exeter and Kempton, as well as another race at Newbury, in the coming days.

"He won his last race at Kempton easily, it became a bit of a school round in the end," Honeyball told At The Races.

"He's gone up to 158 now and while I don't know if that proves what would have happened in the Feltham, it looked like he would have won.

"I just need to try to work out the next step. We put him in the Denman as a bit of a punt and we're looking at ground and all sorts. He does have other options, but the Denman is very much in our minds.

"He doesn't know the other horses are more experienced, it will be a small field and they won't go much quicker than they did around Kempton. They are just horses, albeit very good ones.

"I just need to weigh it up and I'm not sure what Aidan Coleman is doing as I don't really want to put someone else on in what is hopefully his last run before the RSA.

"There is the Reynoldstown next week, but I've been lining up Ms Parfois for that."

 

[Robbante]

I don't really think the trip matters for Monalee. They see him as a gold cup horse so at some point he's going to need stepping up in trip, and I think the Presenting Percy vs Monalee clash is probably motivation enough for them to go RSA. The JLT is bound to be frantically run with Willoughby Court setting the fractions up front, I actually think Monalee might struggle in that as Death Duty outpaced him over 2m 4 last year.

I also don't see Al Boum Photo as a stayer. Has shown plenty of pace over the shorter distances and didn't stay for me when tried over 3 miles before. Al Boum Photo vs Monalee in the JLT I would be on Al Boum Photo to reverse the form

 

[Kevloaf]

I don't really think the trip matters for Monalee. They see him as a gold cup horse so at some point he's going to need stepping up in trip, and I think the Presenting Percy vs Monalee clash is probably motivation enough for them to go RSA. The JLT is bound to be frantically run with Willoughby Court setting the fractions up front, I actually think Monalee might struggle in that as Death Duty outpaced him over 2m 4 last year.

I also don't see Al Boum Photo as a stayer. Has shown plenty of pace over the shorter distances and didn't stay for me when tried over 3 miles before. Al Boum Photo vs Monalee in the JLT I would be on Al Boum Photo to reverse the form

Death Duty would have been a big player in the JLT though so can't really crab Monalee with that?

Al Boum is a really interesting horse for either race I think. I like him more than Invitation Only but from jockey bookings and comments it seems Walsh prefers IO!

 

[Robbante]

Death Duty would have been a big player in the JLT though so can't really crab Monalee with that?

Al Boum is a really interesting horse for either race I think. I like him more than Invitation Only but from jockey bookings and comments it seems Walsh prefers IO!

Can't crab him with that really no, and given the strength of the races if I were his connections i'd still probably think the JLT more winnable. I just think they'll look at the end game with him, which is for him to develop into a gold cup horse. The RSA I think in what is looking a strong field makes more sense to see where he stands on that front.

I think they might be edging towards IO JLT and Al Boum RSA, but that would be the wrong way around for me. I think their best chance of winning one of those two races is Al Boum JLT. Don't really give IO much chance of winning either

 

[darlojim]

PP a possible for the bobbyjo chase and possibly a clash against total recall. Would be staying well away from PP if he was to run in that with only 2 weeks or so between that and cheltenham

 

[kinloch brae]

PP a possible for the bobbyjo chase and possibly a clash against total recall. Would be staying well away from PP if he was to run in that with only 2 weeks or so between that and cheltenham

Where's this originated from? It sounds bonkers. May as well miss the Cheltenham Festival.

 

[Robbante]

Where's this originated from? It sounds bonkers. May as well miss the Cheltenham Festival.

Same racing post article as the Mall Dini stuff. This on PP -

Reynolds said: “We’re looking at running him in either the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse [February 24] or the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park on Saturday week [17] – it’s between those two races.

“The Bobbyjo would probably suit him a little better as it’s over further but the only problem is that it’s not run until the end of the month. I think that they’re the only two options for him now as we want to run him back over fences before Cheltenham.”

Asked whether stepping out of novice company again would pose any concerns, Reynolds added: “He’s already proved that he’s a quality animal and we don’t mind stepping out of novice company. I think if he’s going to be competitive in the RSA he’ll need to be competitive in a Bobbyjo or a Red Mills Chase.”

He added: “I thought Monalee was fantastic at Leopardstown over the weekend and he looks like he’s going to be serious opposition in the RSA. Al Boum Photo also ran a good race in second so it looks like it’s going to be a very hot race, which is why we want to give him another run.”

 

[kinloch brae]

Where's this originated from? It sounds bonkers. May as well miss the Cheltenham Festival.

Just found it on Racing Post.

Hasn't he noticed that most sensible operators think it is important to take a fresh horse to Cheltenham? It makes going back over hurdles look even more silly if it meant they needed to go back over fences. All the praise appears to have gone to his head. Couldn't be doing more to jeopardise the horses chances. People who have backed the opposition must be laughing.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Just found it on Racing Post.

Hasn't he noticed that most sensible operators think it is important to take a fresh horse to Cheltenham? It makes going back over hurdles look even more silly if it meant they needed to go back over fences. All the praise appears to have gone to his head. Couldn't be doing more to jeopardise the horses chances. People who have backed the opposition must be laughing.

He ran him end of Feb last season before he dotted up at Cheltenham, and as he probably knows the horse the best surely his decision can't be doubted?....until he runs and gets beat of course :highly_amused:

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just found it on Racing Post.

Hasn't he noticed that most sensible operators think it is important to take a fresh horse to Cheltenham? It makes going back over hurdles look even more silly if it meant they needed to go back over fences. All the praise appears to have gone to his head. Couldn't be doing more to jeopardise the horses chances. People who have backed the opposition must be laughing.

Maybe the Irish National is their main target this season as it's worth far more than the RSA. That would be the target if he was mine.

 

[Kevloaf]

He ran him end of Feb last season before he dotted up at Cheltenham, and as he probably knows the horse the best surely his decision can't be doubted?....until he runs and gets beat of course :highly_amused:

Yea that is a very good point... I Was livid that he'd absolutely blown his mark for no reason.... but he CLEARLY wasn't negatively affected last season by it?

I don't think we should knock a horse for running... but I think the 4 miler is easier to win so they should go for that! He'd win that far easier ... and I agree with jono's point it might not be a harder race!