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Queen Mother Champion Chase 2020

Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused: Wow.

You can do what you want? Do you even know what you want? :highly_amused: Is it somebody to listen?

It's more effort for you to create a new account than it is for me to ban it.

We can delete all your posts too, like you weren't here? It's just a few clicks...

No money needs to be spent, it's seconds out of my day.... we could do this for years, honestly. It doesn't affect me anywhere near as much as you hope it does.
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Thanks for dealing with it Kev.
 
This flat spot is the moment just before he hits the after burners, I can’t think of another 2 mile horse who accelerates like Altior over the final 100 yards so the flat spot is more the calm before the storm. The issue this year is if he leaves CPS too far in front or try’s to keep up with him when he makes his move and tires?? With just over 3 weeks to go I’m also not sure if Altior has had enough time after Ascot & Saturdays race to properly recover for this race.
 
Altior needs further doesn't he?




He's better than horses like Dynamite Dollars, Politilogue and Sceau Royal over 2 miles because he's just a better horse.


If he went up in trip he'd show Min his backside over and over again.





Needs further now, so gets beat by a proper 2 miler, if he ever meets one good enough.

Defi has proven he's better than Un De Sceaux at 2 miles this season.... that might not be good enough.
Chacun has beaten Mion over 2 miles this season.... that might not be good enough.


Altior would beat UDS and Min over 2 miles still - he has before and would again.



2m4f I think Altior would be unbeatable, bar Cyrname :devilish:
 
His ideal trip is probably 2m 3f, in fact I think they should create this race for the newly formed 6 day festival...
 
The King Pimm said:
This flat spot is the moment just before he hits the after burners, I can’t think of another 2 mile horse who accelerates like Altior over the final 100 yards so the flat spot is more the calm before the storm. The issue this year is if he leaves CPS too far in front or try’s to keep up with him when he makes his move and tires?? With just over 3 weeks to go I’m also not sure if Altior has had enough time after Ascot & Saturdays race to properly recover for this race.
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I think that’s the big question.

Can Altior stay within 2-3 lengths of Defi and CPS approaching the last? If he can I think he’ll win. The other two have simply not shown the turn of foot he has, at Cheltenham or anywhere. They have absolutely no form to suggest they have the turbo kick he does.

The issue is, as has always been the case, that he doesn’t seem to travel to well and always seems to struggle to keep up on the bridge between 3 out and 2 out as the pace ratchets up. That could be NdB being a little slow to react. It could be the horse’s way. It could be he simply can’t travel on the bridge as quick as others.

But he’s never been beaten to the line over 2m-2m2f over obstacles.

I completely disagree, Kev. The fact his bumper form wasn’t exceptional (lost twice to unexceptional horse’s) and his only loss over fences being at 2m5f in soft-heavy suggests to me he isn’t outstaying them at 2 miles, as was, and is, common perception. This sort of sectionals analysis backs up my view that his top speed is simply quicker than every other horse he’s encountered, and he needs a shorter distance to retain the ability to use it. The longer the race and quicker the pace, the more tired he gets.

Saturday was a classic win, and being there visually impressive, backed up by that sectional analysis. He’s last sectional is so much quicker than the others. His flat spot between 4 out and 2 out, shows him actually slowing down from before, but speeding up significantly. Over the last 200 yards he gains 5 lengths on 160 horses. He’s gained 7 lengths against Min after the last twice at Cheltenham. Last year he gained 3 inside the last 100 yards. I think Hendo is right, all evidence just suggests he’s bloody quick at full pelt. The sectionals showed his quickest one was the sprint finish. I’m sure that’s usual for him, but that isn’t outstaying them. It’s outgunning them for pace.

CPS, against an older Min, didn’t put anything like that distance between him and Min in the last 200 yards.

Defi probably showed more in his last run against UdS, but was that UdS’s true running? I’m sceptical.

It’s quite feasible CPS and Defi will gallop Altior out of it, especially at the bottom of the hill and round the bend during his flat spot. If they don’t though, I just don’t see him losing in the sprint finish. He has a gear they don’t.

Potentially great race though, especially with the added tactics. The recovery point is a good one two. Another unknown a year older.
 
Grouchy Pendil!


Nobody wants to see Altior up in trip, I'm just saying I believe he'd be at his optimum up in trip, and if therefore CPS or Defi are genuine top class 2 milers, he'll be beaten.

That's a big if though! Neither have shown it yet if you don't rate UDS.

I happen to love UDS though so I think Defi is going to beat him:love_heart:
 
TCH29 said:
I completely disagree, Kev. The fact his bumper form wasn’t exceptional (lost twice to unexceptional horse’s) and his only loss over fences being at 2m5f in soft-heavy suggests to me he isn’t outstaying them at 2 miles, as was, and is, common perception. This sort of sectionals analysis backs up my view that his top speed is simply quicker than every other horse he’s encountered, and he needs a shorter distance to retain the ability to use it. The longer the race and quicker the pace, the more tired he gets.
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I haven't said he's outstaying them at 2 miles. Don't put words in my mouth.

I specifically said he's got too much ability for anything he's faced at 2 miles. Turn of foot? Fine.
Ultimately he just runs faster than all the other horses he comes up against, whether it's outstaying them, or getting faster at the end, or getting slower, less quickly than the others.... it's the same result. He's just a superior horse.

His bumper form is not a stick you can beat him with, it's a different discipline for one! How many TOP CLASS bumper horses have ever actually gone on to be top class? I genuinly can't think of any top class horse that was winning bumpers? (I'm sure there are some, somewhere...)



You can't also say "The longer the race and quicker the pace, the more tired he gets." - it's happened ONCE and he was 2L behind the highest rated horse in training?!





I think Altior would beat Sceau Royal, Dynamite Dollars and Politilogue over 2m, 2m3f, 2m5f, 3m and 4 miles. I think he's just better than them.
 
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Kevloaf said:
I haven't said he's outstaying them at 2 miles. Don't put words in my mouth.

I specifically said he's got too much ability for anything he's faced at 2 miles.

His bumper form is not a stick you can beat him with, it's a different discipline for one! How many TOP CLASS bumper horses have ever actually gone on to be top class? I genuinly can't think of any top class horse that was winning bumpers? (I'm sure there are some, somewhere...)



You can't also say "The longer the race and quicker the pace, the more tired he gets." - it's happened ONCE and he was 2L behind the highest rated horse in training?!
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Sorry, I didn’t intend to put words in your mouth. I thought that was what you’re saying.

That last comment of mine also relates to the bumpers. Pro rata to their age they go quicker than they would over fences all the way around, so it’s more of a test of stamina.

I still maintain that evidence points to his sprint finish being his main attribute, not stamina; he speeds up at the end of 2miles quicker than the others can because he is capable of running quicker than them. I don’t think Cyrname would beat him over 2 miles, precisely for that reason, whereas at 2m5f, Cyrname outstayed him, marginally.

IF he beats CPS and Defi this year, where does that put him class wise? Still not beating good horses or better, as a 10 year old, than he was, when perhaps he was never truly stretched (or Min was underrated too)?
 
TCH29 said:
Sorry, I didn’t intend to put words in your mouth. I thought that was what you’re saying.

That last comment of mine also relates to the bumpers. Pro rata to their age they go quicker than they would over fences all the way around, so it’s more of a test of stamina.

I still maintain that evidence points to his sprint finish being his main attribute, not stamina; he speeds up at the end of 2miles quicker than the others can because he is capable of running quicker than them. I don’t think Cyrname would beat him over 2 miles, precisely for that reason, whereas at 2m5f, Cyrname outstayed him, marginally.

IF he beats CPS and Defi this year, where does that put him class wise? Still not beating good horses or better, as a 10 year old, than he was, when perhaps he was never truly stretched (or Min was underrated too)?
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Using a bumper form to judge a 2 mile chaser is just so far away from being relevant in my mind though Tom. It's completely different using your energy flinging your entire body over a fence than hacking around a field in a bumper when you're learning the game. The way they use energy and so on would be so different now. Would Henderson really have gotten Altior to be the best of his ability in bumpers? Is that really a fair way to look at how he finishes his races now? I just don't see it myself.




I think he'd have his sprint finish over the intermediate trip too.



Class wise I'm of the opinion he's always been a bit under rated (although understand why, based purely on how ratings work)... if he wins this QMCC, I'd guess it'd be his highest ever rating though if Defi and CPS are there or thereabouts... if he beats them, it's because he's top class. Whether he's top class because of the turn of foot, or because he out stays them, won't matter.

FWIW I don't want to see him up in trip at Cheltenham... but I'd love it at Aintree afterwards to see what he can do in what I think would be his optimum conditions.
 
Kevloaf said:
Using a bumper form to judge a 2 mile chaser is just so far away from being relevant in my mind though Tom. It's completely different using your energy flinging your entire body over a fence than hacking around a field in a bumper when you're learning the game. The way they use energy and so on would be so different now. Would Henderson really have gotten Altior to be the best of his ability in bumpers? Is that really a fair way to look at how he finishes his races now? I just don't see it myself.




I think he'd have his sprint finish over the intermediate trip too.



Class wise I'm of the opinion he's always been a bit under rated (although understand why, based purely on how ratings work)... if he wins this QMCC, I'd guess it'd be his highest ever rating though if Defi and CPS are there or thereabouts... if he beats them, it's because he's top class. Whether he's top class because of the turn of foot, or because he out stays them, won't matter.

FWIW I don't want to see him up in trip at Cheltenham... but I'd love it at Aintree afterwards to see what he can do in what I think would be his optimum conditions.
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I get using bumper form is questionable in any analysis. I agree it’s very different, but we can only use the evidence available. The only races that turbo finish has been missing his his career is 2 bumpers and a 2m5f Chase. But it’s a hallmark of his 2 mile obstacle form. Just think this his strength and optimum trip and that’s he been significantly underrated because of the nature of his wins. He waits and wins with his sprint finish, that no one has yet beaten at 2 miles over obstacles, not his cruising speed.

I agree that if he wins, he’ll probably get his best official mark, and probably his best RPR, but I think his first Champion Chase win and some runs that year we’re “better” runs, with “that” Altior beating this one, so to speak. Always thought that first Champion Chase win was under marked, given the conditions not suiting, how string out the field was and how much he beat Min by. Possibly overshadowed by Douvan falling, but I don’t think Douvan would have got near him either.
 
I don't think we're even disagreeing are we? :highly_amused:

Unless your adament he wouldn't be better up in trip. I'm not adament that he would be, but I definitely am not using a 2L defeat to Cyrname as the evidence.

Every other run he's had have been over 2 miles, so to single out the bumper form (which you can easily put a line through, based on the plethora of horses who don't excel in bumpers and go on to be fantastic) and the run behind Cyrname is just unfair for me because I think he'd have won at different trips if needed.

Do you think Altior wouldn't have been able to win some of the races that Min has won over the years? Or Politilogue as an even more ridiculous horse...

Politilogue has a G2 and G1 to his name at the intermediate trip.... I have little doubt that Altior could have won those races. I don't think he'd have been outstayed, and exposed as an out an out two miler.


Perhaps it's good that we never found out, as the level he's at, or been at, over 2 miles means he's one of the best we've seen in that sphere.
 
The worry for altior is that defi rides and holds on the bridle until the last fence, then BG gets to work on him, he’s almost got it down to a fine art now (after pressing too early last season against LIT).

In no way do I think defi has the turn of foot altior has though.

Defis problem is will BG be able to stay on the bridle to the last against altior and/or CPS if he’s involved in the finish.

Just really hope all 3 turn up for the race because it’s going to be a cracker if they do!
 
Simply Ned has ran against CPS, Altior and Defi in his last 3 runs. The G1 race over Christmas would have been his aim all season having won the previous 2 years but he was beaten out of site by CPS. He was alot closer to Altior and Defi. It may not have been Ned's true running but CPS looks relentless, jumps the best out of the 3 and I'm not sure Altior or Defi will be close enough jumping the last to get past him(although my heart would love an Altior win).
 
TimRiggins said:
Hope they get him in the bowl after Cheltenham, whatever happens.
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I see no other route than the tried and tested Queen Mother then Sandown, again, a bit like the Ascot race earlier this year, why try new things in the horses 6/7 season, if he was a middle distance horse then Hendo would/should have stepped him up years ago no ?
 
Kevloaf said:
I don't think we're even disagreeing are we? :highly_amused:

Unless your adament he wouldn't be better up in trip. I'm not adament that he would be, but I definitely am not using a 2L defeat to Cyrname as the evidence.

Every other run he's had have been over 2 miles, so to single out the bumper form (which you can easily put a line through, based on the plethora of horses who don't excel in bumpers and go on to be fantastic) and the run behind Cyrname is just unfair for me because I think he'd have won at different trips if needed.

Do you think Altior wouldn't have been able to win some of the races that Min has won over the years? Or Politilogue as an even more ridiculous horse...

Politilogue has a G2 and G1 to his name at the intermediate trip.... I have little doubt that Altior could have won those races. I don't think he'd have been outstayed, and exposed as an out an out two miler.


Perhaps it's good that we never found out, as the level he's at, or been at, over 2 miles means he's one of the best we've seen in that sphere.
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We’re disagreeing massively, but I do not think he would better over 2m4f. I don’t even think he would be as good. There is limited evidence either way, but what evidence there is (sections and a few races you class as referring more stamina/staying ability) says to me his strength is best deployed at 2miles.

Good point on the Simply Ned form line. That is indeed the qn, will he be close enough to CPS?? Cracking race in store!!
 
Like many i've been torn between DDS and Altior and have been rewatching various races. There are a lot of similarities in how they both position themselves and travel, both jump competently for the most part without being anything spectacular, both approach the last in a similar fashion. It's the '18 and '19 Tingle Creek that stand out though. Un De Sceaux as ever makes sure both are given plenty to think about and work for, but watch the way DDS finished and then imagine Altior on screen too. For me it's striking, my minds eye can't have anything other than an Altior winner.

The form lines are pretty easy to hold up against one another, so the key element i'm left pondering is has Altior lost that spectacular turn of foot that has set him apart? I think last Saturday answered that question satisfactorily. I just haven't seen how DDS can match it. The form with a 12 year old Un De Sceaux helps allay any ageing fears for me.

Also as an aside, both went off as soft ground (DDS win as soft, GS in places) but it's quite misleading on face value; the Altior Tingle Creek is a mudbath in comparison!
 
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