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Punchestown 2021

Kilcruit with a good win there. Patrick's record of picking the correct horse in the big bumpers must be pretty bad?
 
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charlie said:
Falak in the first @ 18/1 EW 7 places. Arrives in rude health after a couple of wins at Dundalk. Hopefully trainer does an Anna Bunina with this fella.

Telemesomethinggirl @ 13/2 - will probably be my biggest bet of the week. On the face of it this looked like a slightly odd move by HDB - 2m to 3m is a tall ask, but then I look at how she settled at Cheltenham (which was a previous issue) and how powerfully she hit the line going away, combined with her previous wins over 2m4f, and I think this is a sensible move. I am not sure what their long term ambitions are for her, but the mares allowance is invaluable and perhaps wont be around forever, so there's every chance they aim her at next years stayers hurdle and this is a sighter to see how she gets on.

Mortal @ 80/1 EW and Foxy Jacks @ 33/1 EW - 7 places. The case for an 80/1 shot will always have holes, but I quite like Mortal here. The run in the Irish Grand National was full of positives. Up with the pace, jumped well, just clearly didn't stay. I don't think he wants an inch past 2m5f. 8 months ago he was beating Robin Des Foret, Livelovelaugh and Us And Them, so he'd not devoid of ability and he's slipped 2lbs below his last winning mark to 145. I don't think he'll win, but with 7 places I'd like to think he might hit the frame at a massive price. Foxy Jacks is a complete lunatic that almost certainly doesn't want 3 miles so back in trip off a very low weight makes sense to me.

Really looking forward to the other races, its just a tough meeting to get right so only betting on 3 of the 8 races today.
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Managed to belatedly get Foxy Jacks at 28/1 today, so thanks for that tip Charlie - nice little earner for me this evening
 
Mighty said:
Managed to belatedly get Foxy Jacks at 28/1 today, so thanks for that tip Charlie - nice little earner for me this evening
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Excellent pal, me too! Traded at 60's in running after that mistake too but it was a superb ride off a low weight. Lovely winner going into day 3 cause the first two for me have been more miss than hit
 
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Ronald Pump & Pure Genius double for me tomorrow, 48/1 with 365.

No doubt I’ll have a dart or two at the other handicaps, but they be my main two for tomorrow.
 
Cracking shout on Foxy Jacks, charlie! Stings a bit for me, backed him a few times and let him go today. Need to listen to you more often, haha.
 
charlie said:
Falak in the first @ 18/1 EW 7 places. Arrives in rude health after a couple of wins at Dundalk. Hopefully trainer does an Anna Bunina with this fella.

Telemesomethinggirl @ 13/2 - will probably be my biggest bet of the week. On the face of it this looked like a slightly odd move by HDB - 2m to 3m is a tall ask, but then I look at how she settled at Cheltenham (which was a previous issue) and how powerfully she hit the line going away, combined with her previous wins over 2m4f, and I think this is a sensible move. I am not sure what their long term ambitions are for her, but the mares allowance is invaluable and perhaps wont be around forever, so there's every chance they aim her at next years stayers hurdle and this is a sighter to see how she gets on.

Mortal @ 80/1 EW and Foxy Jacks @ 33/1 EW - 7 places. The case for an 80/1 shot will always have holes, but I quite like Mortal here. The run in the Irish Grand National was full of positives. Up with the pace, jumped well, just clearly didn't stay. I don't think he wants an inch past 2m5f. 8 months ago he was beating Robin Des Foret, Livelovelaugh and Us And Them, so he'd not devoid of ability and he's slipped 2lbs below his last winning mark to 145. I don't think he'll win, but with 7 places I'd like to think he might hit the frame at a massive price. Foxy Jacks is a complete lunatic that almost certainly doesn't want 3 miles so back in trip off a very low weight makes sense to me.

Really looking forward to the other races, its just a tough meeting to get right so only betting on 3 of the 8 races today.
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Thanks charlie, lovely shout on Foxy Jacks! I jumped on after seeing this too.
 
That was taking from Grangee, readily backed up her win at the DRF.

Spending 300k on a mare after winning a Mares Bumper at Carlisle doesn't look too smart an idea.
 
charlie said:
Excellent pal, me too! Traded at 60's in running after that mistake too but it was a superb ride off a low weight. Lovely winner going into day 3 cause the first two for me have been more miss than hit
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Had an iffy day yesterday, but a GDC double with Kilcruit, Foxy Jacks, Clan and Grangee has made it a very nice day all around. Missed out on Suprise Package though which was tipped up earlier. Let me know if you’ve got any other tips!!
 
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Considering he was coming back from a 452 day break after injury I thought Eric Bloodaxe ran an encouraging race to finish a staying on 4th in the NHF race. I presume he goes novice hurdling next year? Ballymore maybe?
 
16:15 - Unexcepted @ 10/1 EW 6 places. If there is a potential future Grade 1 performer lurking in here then it could be Unexcepted. His wellbeing is a bit of question mark and factored into his price, but he smashed Entoucas readily on chase debut at Tipperary and was electric that day. Probably dangerous taking that on face value as JOB is a target trainer and Entoucas looked to be given an 'educational' ride that day, but I thought Unexcepted backed up very well at Leopardstown and was better than the bare result suggested. Willie has been dominating all well and

17:25 - Saldier @ 20/1 EW 4 places - I've been off the cliff with Saldier more than a few times so this is a a heart over head bet. There's no doubt he's a talented horse and a slick hurdler, perhaps 2 miles at a championship pace stretches him. His course form is superb and it wouldn't be the first time WPM takes a horse untried over 2m and wins a 3m race. I do love Flooring Porter and would love to see him win. I've done the Cromwell/Moore Five Helmets (first race) and Flooring Porter double @ 20/1.

18:00 - Dallas Des Pictons @ 22/1 WIN - I took an exchange price to win because he's being smashed up. 12 from 20 on Skybet. Easy to see why. Decent claimer, course form, lovely run at Cheltenham, wants better ground which he gets - loads to like about this horse. I've nibbled A Great View @ 90's on the exchange and also 40/1 with 7 places. Won this race many moons ago and he seems to save his best for Punchestown with form figures of 11347. He's an unlikely winner, but he could hit the frame at a big price, but DDP main bet here.

19.35 - Forged In Fire @ 14/1 EW - Even in the presence of poor recent form I cant let a horse that once lowered the colours of Ferny Hollow go unbacked at 14/1 in an open race like this, its a simple as that. Hasn't fired since, but could hit the frame.
 
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I’ve struggled so far at Punchestown, I’ve been backing the wrong Fav’s and just missing out on places. I can’t say I know much about the Irish horses outside of graded company or Cheltenham appearances and it’s telling.

I’ve backed all the JP McManus horses in the 4.15, if he does win the race then I’ll miss the cut and be out of action for the Friday & Saturday. I’ve also put on 2 Lucky 63’s involving mainly JP, Gigginstown and Robocor horses.
 
I’m not normally a fan of the new alternative camera angles but it was very interesting to note how steep the finish is at Punchestown yesterday, I’d never noticed it before but much more undulating than I thought and some really steep climbs so a real test and tougher course than I thought
 
Taken a chance Ronald Pump today, think he would have gone close at Cheltenham and 7/1 4 places looks OK to me...
 
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