PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL Handicap Hurdle

[punterorplonker]

The most ideal ride and outcome.... There you go!

Best price now 10s

 

[Lobos]

Crazy races Pertemps Qualifiers...... wanting your horses to run well but not too well.

Impossible race imo.

 

[Killiney]

So i've run this through quickly this afternoon.

Of these already qualified i can only find 1 that meets those 3 trends of 8 or younger, rated 138+ and between 6-10 hurdle runs

Thomas Mor (50/1)

Karl Des Tourelles is very close but is rated 137 in Ireland so with some UK tax and he will qualify too. (50/1)
Supreme Gift is close but has had 12 hurdle runs (33/1)

However those that won their qualifier are 2/26 so that would knock out Thomas Mor and Supreme Gift.

At this stage on the trends Karl Des Tourelles is looking strong - Delta Work won this as a 5yo.

His qualifying form is very strong as well he was 1/2 a length down on Franciscan Rock giving him 2lb (134), that horse is now rated 147 and Desertmore House a 144 rated Chaser 2.5 lengths down getting 4lbs from Karl.

Chunker I took the liberty at looking at your analysis again as we have had a further couple of qualifiers. Using your criteria, but only if you extend the rating criteria to 137, you could add Bugisie Seagull (9 runs). At this stage Karl (on 137) will as you say need some UK tax to get in the banding as would Win Some Lose Some (135) but he won a qualifier and you would dismiss him on that ground.

Personally I think the move to guarantee places for winners might have (presumably) the desired effect and more may start winning. So I would not completely dismiss them. That would bring back in Thomas Mor and of course Win Some Lose Some.

do that would I think give us a short list of Karl/ Thomas More/ Bugisue Seagull and Win Some.

 

[Middle_Of_March]

Really like super survivor for this at the prices. 33s too big imo

 

[AaronLad]

Horse	Qualified off	Current rating
cheltenham
The wallpark	145	152 (bha p.f)
Gowel road	141	148
Zain nights	130	128
Hardy boy	126	121
Newbury (4 ran)
American sniper	120	125
Emitom	137	137
Monmiral	144	149
Henry's friend	134	135
Aintree
Harbour lake	129	137
Guard the moon	120	128
Magical king	119	125*
Willaston	126	122
Kempton (4 ran)
Pyramid place	130	136
Stones choice	130	130
Jackpot d'athou	121	114*
Dargianni	140	139
Punchestown
Franciscan Rock	134	147
Karl des tourelles	133	137
Desertmore house	127	130
Slanagaibhgoleir	120	121
Market Rasen
supreme gift	135	136*
harbour lake	already	qualified
What a johnny	118	119*
Willaston	already	qualified
sandown
Henri the second	125	134*
Up for parol	121	127
Super survivor	123	131
West to the bridge	131	127
carlisle
Shallow river	127	133
D art d art	131	136 (bha p.f)
Gwennie may boy	137	139
Gold in the rivers	125	125
wincanton
Thomas mor	138	143*
Dartmoor pirate	121	123*
Lord accord	125	124*
Long draw	127	127
leopardstown
Win some lose some	125	135
What's available	118	122
Feet of a dancer	130	132
Koori star	119	122
Huntingdon
Super survivor	Already	Qualified
Shanagh bob	129	131
Malaita	117	118
Zain nights	already	qualified
Musselburgh
Pyffo	127	133
Bugise seagull	137	139
Red risk	136	137
Idem	128	128
Exeter
Catch him derry	123
Hititi	135
Jeriko du reponet	134
Lossiemouth	134

All the current pertemps qualifiers.
48 in total, 4 twice qualified
10 irish trained 38 british trained.
​​I've added current ratings and rating which they qualified on.
for irish qualifiers qualified in irish races, these will be irish ratings.
for irish qualifiers, qualified in british races i have used the bha performance rating.

Updated table for pertemps qualifiers.
any amendments to ratings are marked with a *

 

[Eggs]

….for those that like their trends, I’ve popped some Trend Analysis for this race in post #1. These might be a bit skewed if the change in qualifying this year makes a difference.

 

[Craigy14]

Updated table for pertemps qualifiers.
any amendments to ratings are marked with a *

Starting to come round to your shout mate. Looking into Bugise Seagull, he hits a lot of the trends as well which helps back up the decision making process. Decent form over hurdles as well. His rating should have him carrying a similar weight to the winner last year, rated 139.

I wonder how many winners started over fences and reverted back, not that it matters as he seems to retain his ability over hurdles, tender qualifying ride as well carrying top weight :encouragement: as you’ve said little frustrating he was out up a couple lbs for the mussy run but hopefully doesn’t burden him.

 

[AaronLad]

Starting to come round to your shout mate. Looking into Bugise Seagull, he hits a lot of the trends as well which helps back up the decision making process. Decent form over hurdles as well. His rating should have him carrying a similar weight to the winner last year, rated 139.

I wonder how many winners started over fences and reverted back, not that it matters as he seems to retain his ability over hurdles, tender qualifying ride as well carrying top weight :encouragement: as you’ve said little frustrating he was out up a couple lbs for the mussy run but hopefully doesn’t burden him.

Yeah looks like he'll need one of the higher rated horses to come here to carry under the trends magic mark of 11 '4 but theres a fair chance it one of them does.

 

[Craigy14]

Yeah looks like he'll need one of the higher rated horses to come here to carry under the trends magic mark of 11 '4 but theres a fair chance it one of them does.

Aye I noticed that, looking at the qualifiers there could be2 or 3 higher rated ones that will carry a good few lbs more than the rest.

 

[JamieSensible]

Confused with how this actually works this year.

So assuming the horse has had its 5 hurdles runs.

It's won its Pertemps qualifier and it falls within the weights of the top qualified horse it gets first refusal as to take up their chance or not?

I'm focusing on Shanagh Bob who has a bit of the Mill Green about him, at 131 he would be down the bottom of the weights, and he only came second in the qualifier.

So the question is, with the new format, where does that leave him on the list of getting into the race?

 

[AaronLad]

Confused with how this actually works this year.

So assuming the horse has had its 5 hurdles runs.

It's won its Pertemps qualifier and it falls within the weights of the top qualified horse it gets first refusal as to take up their chance or not?

I'm focusing on Shanagh Bob who has a bit of the Mill Green about him, at 131 he would be down the bottom of the weights, and he only came second in the qualifier.

So the question is, with the new format, where does that leave him on the list of getting into the race?

He's currently sat 26th, 25 qualified have a higher rating than him.

There are 2 winners that currently have a rating lower than his, catch him derry still needs to be assessed next Tuesday however.

However if the wallpark was declared i dont think either American sniper or catch him derry would fall within the weights.

10-2 minimum and 11-12 topweight?

He'd need a couple to not be entered/declared but id have him as a likely runner on his rating.

 

[Odddog]

Updated table for pertemps qualifiers.
any amendments to ratings are marked with a *

I did the same analysis yesterday and couldn't help noticing that the qualified horses with the highest current ORs also have an entry in the stayers (The Wallpark, Monmiral, Gowel Road, Franciscan Rock) and if they all go stayers you would be looking at Thomas Mor carrying top weight with 143. Of course we still have the Chepstow qualifier to go but this could mean a much lower rating can get you in this year. I had Gwennie May Boy on my list prior to the Rendelsham yesterday - surely they have blown his mark in rather uncharacteristic Skelton fashion? I do like Emitom's chances (but I said the same thing last year and he could only manage 5th) and KDT if the British handicapper is not too harsh.

Also I think Elliott will be absolutely gutted that Minella Sixo fell yesterday at Haydock. He was entered in the Exeter qualifier (and possibly also the Warwick one which Gordon likes to target but was abandoned this year) and looked just the type to do well in the final.

 

[Eggs]

….post #1 updated with initial entries and trend analysis.

 

[Killiney]

Thanks Eggs for the entries - that was quick.

I was a bit mystified by some of the entries though as 18 of them have not qualified. Presumably they are intended entries for the two remaining qualifiers at Chepstow and Naas (if my record is correct). Even if 8 qualify and run that will only give 41 entries.

The ones not currently qualified are Anna Bunina / Brodie’s Beau/ Catos Revenge / Firestream/ Harsh / Heliko Conti/ Icare Allen / Jai Froid / Jacovec Cavern / Lucky Lyreen / Maxi Mac Gold/ Maximilian / Minella Missile / Nab Wood / Patter Merchant / Sole Solution / Staffordshire Knot / Will The Wise.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Thanks Eggs for the entries - that was quick.

I was a bit mystified by some of the entries though as 18 of them have not qualified. Presumably they are intended entries for the two remaining qualifiers at Chepstow and Naas (if my record is correct). Even if 8 qualify and run that will only give 41 entries.

The ones not currently qualified are Anna Bunina / Brodie’s Beau/ Catos Revenge / Firestream/ Harsh / Heliko Conti/ Icare Allen / Jai Froid / Jacovec Cavern / Lucky Lyreen / Maxi Mac Gold/ Maximilian / Minella Missile / Nab Wood / Patter Merchant / Sole Solution / Staffordshire Knot / Will The Wise.

I too am mystified there are horses who have gone through the qualification process and then not entered...

 

[Killiney]

I too am mystified there are horses who have gone through the qualification process and then not entered...

I can understand that more as some may have gone wrong or have rating way below what could reasonably be expected to get in but entering orders not yet qualified seems strange. Although this must be the only race at Cheltenham which allows for late qualification.

 

[Wayward Lad]

I too am mystified there are horses who have gone through the qualification process and then not entered...

To be honest I was surprised that Gwennie May Boy was entered after his weekend G2 romp and a 10lbs rating rise……

 

[Eggs]

….Skelton re Gwennie;

’I’m not sure whether he will run in the Pertemps. The Handicapper has encouraged me not to run - I think the right thing to do with him is to go the Aintree for the Grade 1.​

 

[DenmanSacre]

Skelton on Catch Him Derry

He is likely to be our main throw of the dice in the Pertemps Final. He won a qualifier at Exeter, and because he won that he will get in. Even if he is 45th on the list he will get in as it is a win and you're in qualification now.

He wasn't quite right in behind after Haydock Park and he pulled himself up a bit. At Cheltenham I don’t think he was that fit. I thought I had done loads with him, but clearly not. He improved fitness-wise from Cheltenham to Exeter. He will have a nice racing weight and if the ground is soft I could see him running a nice race.
​


Even Dan doesn't understand the qualification rules properly. Rated 129 so he'll be fine anyway as I don't think there's a horse rated high enough to put him out the weights but if he was rated a bit lower and The Wallpark turned up, he wouldn't be guaranteed a run.

 

[Rooster Booster]

I see Henry is trying once more to exploit a lower hurdle mark. Last time ended not so good (Gabbys Cross) be interesting if this works out better particularly as this fella has winning chase form at Cheltenham. Obviously wouldn’t want to be winning today though.