DenmanSacre
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PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL Handicap Hurdle
- Thread starter Saxon Warrior
- Start date
DenmanSacre
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Yeah. Gwennie May Boy out as well. Will Monmiral go stayers, leaving Franciscan Rock as top weight?
chunker86
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These 3 trends leave 4 Qualifiers
Thomas Mor 50/1
Bugise Seagull 33/1
Karl Des Tourelles 25/1
Win Some Lose Some 10/1
Thomas Mor and WSLS won their qualifiers so they're out
KDT is a 5 year old so he's out
Bugise Wins
AaronLad
Not going anywhere :)
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DenmanSacre
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
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DenmanSacre
Fat Jockey Patron (est. March 2021)
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Stat from Andrew Mount
Nicky Henderson with first-time cheekpieces on SP favs since 2012 = 10/17 (59%) + £12.91. Jeriko Du Reponet currently 5-1f.
Might not go off favourite anyway.
Nicky Henderson with first-time cheekpieces on SP favs since 2012 = 10/17 (59%) + £12.91. Jeriko Du Reponet currently 5-1f.
Might not go off favourite anyway.
Zachx02
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Just like the other two threads, this is what chatgpt gave me for the pertemps in its deep research mode
Key Trends from the Last 20 Pertemps Final Winners
Age of Winners: Horses aged 6 to 8 have dominated this race. In fact, 11 of the last 12 winners were ages 6–8
thewinnersenclosure.com
. The only recent exception was a 5-year-old (Delta Work in 2018). This indicates that prime-aged stayers (6–8 years old) tend to have an edge, whereas very young or older horses have been less successful (e.g. only one winner aged 5, and one aged 10 in the last two decades
gg.co.uk
).
Weight Carried: A strong trend emerges with winners carrying 11 st 4 lb or less. Eight of the last 12 winners carried 11–4 or under
thewinnersenclosure.com
, and 3 of the last 4 carried 10–12 or less. High-weighted horses can win (Fingal Bay carried top-weight 11–12 in 2014, Sire du Berlais did so in 2019 and 2020), but most recent winners were lower in the handicap. Between 2004 and 2011, 7 of 8 winners carried under 11 stone
gg.co.uk
gg.co.uk
, though in more recent years several winners have carried 11 stone or a bit above. Overall, being farther down in the weights is often a positive.
Official Rating: Pertemps Final winners typically have a mid-130s to mid-140s official rating. Nearly all recent winners were not out of place in that band – 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
thestatsdontlie.com
. In fact, a rating in the 138–148 range covers a large majority of winners in the last decade
racingpost.com
. This suggests the race is usually won by a high-class handicapper; anything with a much lower rating has historically struggled to win (e.g. winners off 134 like Mrs Milner in 2021 are rare).
Previous Race Performance: Coming into the Final with good recent form has been a common theme. 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 on their latest completed start
racingpost.com
. Many had placed in, or even won, a Pertemps Qualifier as their prep run. Notably, a significant number of winners earned their place via the Leopardstown Christmas qualifier – 7 of the last 20 winners qualified at Leopardstown’s December meeting (a popular route for Irish contenders). In general, a strong finish last time out (especially in a Pertemps qualifier within the last 2 months) is a positive trend.
Number of Season Runs: A fair bit of activity during the season seems to help. Ten of the last 12 winners had 3 or more runs in the current season before Cheltenham
thestatsdontlie.com
. This makes sense as the Pertemps series requires horses to run in qualifiers to make the Final, and being battle-hardened (but not over-raced) is ideal. Lightly raced horses (e.g. just 1–2 runs that season) have a poorer record, whereas those with a few runs to peak fitness tend to do well (though not too exposed – most winners had 6–10 total hurdle runs in their career by this point
racingpost.com
).
Trainer Patterns (UK vs. Irish): In the past decade, Irish trainers have had increasing success in this race. Irish-trained runners have won 7 of the last 9 renewals, reflecting a recent Irish dominance in what used to be a very UK-dominated race. Overall, looking at the last 20 runnings, Irish yards took 9 wins (against 11 for British yards)
olbg.com
, but notably Irish horses have won almost all recent editions (examples include Sire du Berlais twice, Mrs Milner, Good Time Jonny). Certain trainers have excellent records: Gordon Elliott (Ireland) won it three times since 2018, and before him, Pat Kelly won back-to-back (2016–17). No single British trainer has dominated recently, though Nicky Henderson and David Pipe have each won it in the last 15 years. Given the trend, an Irish-trained horse is a strong positive factor to note.
Other Common Factors: It’s worth noting many winners had previous Cheltenham experience (about half had run at Cheltenham before, though only a couple had won there). Most winners also had proven stamina – the vast majority had run at least a couple of times at ~3 miles (and about half had a win at 3m) prior to taking this Final
thewinnersenclosure.com
. A high proportion had also not been the betting favorite – only 2 favorites have won in the last 20 years
gg.co.uk
, so we’ve often seen surprise winners (including two at 50/1). However, for this analysis we’re ignoring odds as requested. The profile of a typical Pertemps Final winner is an improving, 6–8 year old, carrying a manageable weight in the low 11-stone range (or less), rated in the high 130s/low 140s, who ran well (ideally placed) in a recent qualifier, has had a few runs this season, and often hails from an Irish yard. Trends Matches for the 2025 Runners
Below is the list of declared runners for tomorrow’s Pertemps Final (2025), with how many of the above key trends each horse meets (out of 6 trends: Age 6–8, Weight ≤11–4, OR ≥138, Placed last run, ≥3 runs this season, Irish-trained). This is not a ranking of merit, just a count of trends:
sportinglife.com
sportinglife.com
. On the other hand, a horse like J’ai Froid only matches two trends (he’s a 12-year-old carrying 11–2, well under the weight trend, but is outside the age range and has had just one run this season)
sportinglife.com
sportinglife.com
. Remember that trends are not absolute rules – they are just common characteristics of past winners. There are always exceptions, but horses fitting more of these prevailing trends have profiles similar to many recent Pertemps Final winners, whereas those fitting few trends would be defying a lot of history if they were to win. Each of the above runners has its own strengths, but this trends count gives an idea of how closely they align with the profile of a typical Pertemps Final winner.
Sources: Historical winner data and trends from Racing Post and Cheltenham stats analyses
racingpost.com
thestatsdontlie.com
; 2025 runners and race information from official racecards and previews
thewinnersenclosure.com
thewinnersenclosure.com
.
Key Trends from the Last 20 Pertemps Final Winners
Age of Winners: Horses aged 6 to 8 have dominated this race. In fact, 11 of the last 12 winners were ages 6–8
thewinnersenclosure.com
. The only recent exception was a 5-year-old (Delta Work in 2018). This indicates that prime-aged stayers (6–8 years old) tend to have an edge, whereas very young or older horses have been less successful (e.g. only one winner aged 5, and one aged 10 in the last two decades
gg.co.uk
).
Weight Carried: A strong trend emerges with winners carrying 11 st 4 lb or less. Eight of the last 12 winners carried 11–4 or under
thewinnersenclosure.com
, and 3 of the last 4 carried 10–12 or less. High-weighted horses can win (Fingal Bay carried top-weight 11–12 in 2014, Sire du Berlais did so in 2019 and 2020), but most recent winners were lower in the handicap. Between 2004 and 2011, 7 of 8 winners carried under 11 stone
gg.co.uk
gg.co.uk
, though in more recent years several winners have carried 11 stone or a bit above. Overall, being farther down in the weights is often a positive.
Official Rating: Pertemps Final winners typically have a mid-130s to mid-140s official rating. Nearly all recent winners were not out of place in that band – 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
thestatsdontlie.com
. In fact, a rating in the 138–148 range covers a large majority of winners in the last decade
racingpost.com
. This suggests the race is usually won by a high-class handicapper; anything with a much lower rating has historically struggled to win (e.g. winners off 134 like Mrs Milner in 2021 are rare).
Previous Race Performance: Coming into the Final with good recent form has been a common theme. 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 on their latest completed start
racingpost.com
. Many had placed in, or even won, a Pertemps Qualifier as their prep run. Notably, a significant number of winners earned their place via the Leopardstown Christmas qualifier – 7 of the last 20 winners qualified at Leopardstown’s December meeting (a popular route for Irish contenders). In general, a strong finish last time out (especially in a Pertemps qualifier within the last 2 months) is a positive trend.
Number of Season Runs: A fair bit of activity during the season seems to help. Ten of the last 12 winners had 3 or more runs in the current season before Cheltenham
thestatsdontlie.com
. This makes sense as the Pertemps series requires horses to run in qualifiers to make the Final, and being battle-hardened (but not over-raced) is ideal. Lightly raced horses (e.g. just 1–2 runs that season) have a poorer record, whereas those with a few runs to peak fitness tend to do well (though not too exposed – most winners had 6–10 total hurdle runs in their career by this point
racingpost.com
).
Trainer Patterns (UK vs. Irish): In the past decade, Irish trainers have had increasing success in this race. Irish-trained runners have won 7 of the last 9 renewals, reflecting a recent Irish dominance in what used to be a very UK-dominated race. Overall, looking at the last 20 runnings, Irish yards took 9 wins (against 11 for British yards)
olbg.com
, but notably Irish horses have won almost all recent editions (examples include Sire du Berlais twice, Mrs Milner, Good Time Jonny). Certain trainers have excellent records: Gordon Elliott (Ireland) won it three times since 2018, and before him, Pat Kelly won back-to-back (2016–17). No single British trainer has dominated recently, though Nicky Henderson and David Pipe have each won it in the last 15 years. Given the trend, an Irish-trained horse is a strong positive factor to note.
Other Common Factors: It’s worth noting many winners had previous Cheltenham experience (about half had run at Cheltenham before, though only a couple had won there). Most winners also had proven stamina – the vast majority had run at least a couple of times at ~3 miles (and about half had a win at 3m) prior to taking this Final
thewinnersenclosure.com
. A high proportion had also not been the betting favorite – only 2 favorites have won in the last 20 years
gg.co.uk
, so we’ve often seen surprise winners (including two at 50/1). However, for this analysis we’re ignoring odds as requested. The profile of a typical Pertemps Final winner is an improving, 6–8 year old, carrying a manageable weight in the low 11-stone range (or less), rated in the high 130s/low 140s, who ran well (ideally placed) in a recent qualifier, has had a few runs this season, and often hails from an Irish yard. Trends Matches for the 2025 Runners
Below is the list of declared runners for tomorrow’s Pertemps Final (2025), with how many of the above key trends each horse meets (out of 6 trends: Age 6–8, Weight ≤11–4, OR ≥138, Placed last run, ≥3 runs this season, Irish-trained). This is not a ranking of merit, just a count of trends:
- Thomas Mor – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Karl Des Tourelles – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Bugise Seagull – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Win Some Lose Some – Matches 5 of 6 trends
- Harbour Lake – Matches 2 of 6 trends
- Supreme Gift – Matches 2 of 6 trends
- D’Art D’Art – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Feet Of A Dancer – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Lucky Lyreen – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Jeriko Du Reponet – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Patter Merchant – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Henri The Second – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Will The Wise – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- One Big Bang – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Super Survivor – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- J’ai Froid – Matches 2 of 6 trends
- Maxi Mac Gold – Matches 5 of 6 trends
- Shanagh Bob – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Doddiethegreat – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Catch Him Derry – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Guard The Moon – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- Zain Nights – Matches 4 of 6 trends
- Idem – Matches 3 of 6 trends
- American Sniper – Matches 3 of 6 trends
sportinglife.com
sportinglife.com
. On the other hand, a horse like J’ai Froid only matches two trends (he’s a 12-year-old carrying 11–2, well under the weight trend, but is outside the age range and has had just one run this season)
sportinglife.com
sportinglife.com
. Remember that trends are not absolute rules – they are just common characteristics of past winners. There are always exceptions, but horses fitting more of these prevailing trends have profiles similar to many recent Pertemps Final winners, whereas those fitting few trends would be defying a lot of history if they were to win. Each of the above runners has its own strengths, but this trends count gives an idea of how closely they align with the profile of a typical Pertemps Final winner.
Sources: Historical winner data and trends from Racing Post and Cheltenham stats analyses
racingpost.com
thestatsdontlie.com
; 2025 runners and race information from official racecards and previews
thewinnersenclosure.com
thewinnersenclosure.com
.
Zachx02
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chunker86
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Worth noting this year it's impossible to meet 6/6 of those trends.
As there is no class horses at the top of the handicap, the top rated horse is Thomas Mor on 143 and only 4 horses rated above the basement 138, so to be below the 11st4 you'd have to be rated 133 or less.
The above analysis must have been run before final decs because Win Some Lose Some is carrying 11-9.
As there is no class horses at the top of the handicap, the top rated horse is Thomas Mor on 143 and only 4 horses rated above the basement 138, so to be below the 11st4 you'd have to be rated 133 or less.
The above analysis must have been run before final decs because Win Some Lose Some is carrying 11-9.
Zachx02
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Ran it last night, must have looked at some pages which had outdated information on them given it looks at around 30+ websites to obtain the information
Exar Essay
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I really like Maxi Mac Gold in this at a price. Can't understand why he's four times the price of Will The Wise. Was beaten 2 1/2 lengths in the qualifier giving a lb to Will The Wise. Now he's 3lb better off at the weights - so a 4lb swing.
Sorry if someone else has put this up, it's not a race or thread I've taken much interest in this year.
Sorry if someone else has put this up, it's not a race or thread I've taken much interest in this year.
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
Think he was strong with the trends too. I had to back him, as a trend lover myself :highly_amused:
Can't believe I'm backing a Doctor Dino over 3m though!
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
This festival just gets better and better....not :sorrow:
Put up Doddiethegreat on here as my E/W NAP of the whole festival for the Coral Cup, last season, where he disappointed, I knew the ground was not in his favour that day, but did I back him for this race at this years festival? Did I bollocks!
Screw you Cheltenham, screw you!
Put up Doddiethegreat on here as my E/W NAP of the whole festival for the Coral Cup, last season, where he disappointed, I knew the ground was not in his favour that day, but did I back him for this race at this years festival? Did I bollocks!
Screw you Cheltenham, screw you!
FinalFurlong91
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It'll turn round for you
Just had a look at your diary and you have some very good chances for the rest of the week
Hope the winners start to flow for you
ComplyOrDie
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021) & Moderator
A lot of near misses, unfortunately I also ended up over staking in some races, which is never a good thing. It does me some of my returns have diminished somewhat.
Bad punting on my part, that.
But thanks for the positivity, mate :love_heart: