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PERTEMPS NETWORK FINAL Handicap Hurdle

chunker86 said:
When you apply the post above - "Looked at the trends last night, 8 or younger, rated 138+, between 6 and 10 hurdle runs."

It doesn't leave that many!!
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So i've run this through quickly this afternoon.

Of these already qualified i can only find 1 that meets those 3 trends of 8 or younger, rated 138+ and between 6-10 hurdle runs

Thomas Mor (50/1)

Karl Des Tourelles is very close but is rated 137 in Ireland so with some UK tax and he will qualify too. (50/1)
Supreme Gift is close but has had 12 hurdle runs (33/1)

However those that won their qualifier are 2/26 so that would knock out Thomas Mor and Supreme Gift.

At this stage on the trends Karl Des Tourelles is looking strong - Delta Work won this as a 5yo.

His qualifying form is very strong as well he was 1/2 a length down on Franciscan Rock giving him 2lb (134), that horse is now rated 147 and Desertmore House a 144 rated Chaser 2.5 lengths down getting 4lbs from Karl.
 
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chunker86 said:
So i've run this through quickly this afternoon.

Of these already qualified i can only find 1 that meets those 3 trends of 8 or younger, rated 138+ and between 6-10 hurdle runs

Thomas Mor (50/1)

Karl Des Tourelles is very close but is rated 137 in Ireland so with some UK tax and he will qualify too. (50/1)
Supreme Gift is close but has had 12 hurdle runs (33/1)

However those that won their qualifier are 2/26 so that would knock out Thomas Mor and Supreme Gift.

At this stage on the trends Karl Des Tourelles is looking strong - Delta Work won this as a 5yo.

His qualifying form is very strong as well he was 1/2 a length down on Franciscan Rock giving him 2lb (134), that horse is now rated 147 and Desertmore House a 144 rated Chaser 2.5 lengths down getting 4lbs from Karl.
Click to expand...

One Forum member has already selected Karl Des Tourelles in their One Horse One Race list……just saying :barbershop_quartet_member:
 
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Stats are there for a reason and that reason should always be teased out before going in blindly.

With a race where qualifying conditions have changed markedly in the last few years, I'd suggest that stats are just historical data.
 
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I've said I have a smasher for the pertemps and I do but after going through those already qualified and having been through all the qualifying races there's a glaringly obvious one that I've had a small play on, race like the pertemps it's good to have a couple isn't it?

So the cheltenham qualifier in October, front 3 of the wallpark, gowel road and Zain nights.
zain nights(130) finished 3rd 7 lengths behind the wallpark(145).
If they were to re-oppose in the pertemps zain nights would currently be running off 128 and the wallpark likely 152 (bha p.f for both british runs) a 9lb swing in the Weights.
He'd have the same swing with 2nd place Gowel road if he came here.
Zain nights is 50/1 and the wallpark 7/1.

Admittedly it would appear his better form is on better ground, but he does have form on soft and even heavy on the flat.
And there is always the possibility of nice spring ground (good to soft)

Only two British trained winners of the pertemps in the last 7 years, both of them with ratings lower than their qualifying ones, i think this is quite significant, i wouldnt want a british trained horse to have a higher rating.
Is 128 too low to win it, it hasn't happened for a while, but I think he's a fair enough price to take a chance.
I'd say he's a great chance of getting in anyway.

Id also give an honourable mention to hardy boy who was 4th in that race off 126, now rated 121, he'd be best of the front 4 at the Weights if they all re-opposed and he managed to sneak in, he'd be no 100/1 shot I'm sure, you can't back them all though, and he's unlikely to get in.
 
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I think Thomas Mor at 40s could be alright here. Great performance at cheltenham, then wasnt a great jumps performance. Surely will revert back to hurdles after hacking up after a long break after winner the pert qualifier. Hobbs won with fingal a fear years ago now.
 
punterorplonker said:
I think Thomas Mor at 40s could be alright here. Great performance at cheltenham, then wasnt a great jumps performance. Surely will revert back to hurdles after hacking up after a long break after winner the pert qualifier. Hobbs won with fingal a fear years ago now.
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I actually don't mind him, and backed him this morning, without NRNB @ 55/1 (boosted price).

He's 3 from 4 over hurdles over 3m and 4 from 6 over hurdles in general. The two times he's been beat was in the Challow Hurdle over 2m4f where he was PU and in the 2023 Albert Bartlett where he finished 5th to Stay Away Fay.

Looks a nice E/W shot, for sure.
 
punterorplonker said:
Could jericko du ruponet at 15s look quite big come 3.35
​pm today?
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No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.

If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
 
AaronLad said:
No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.

If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
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….80-1 TWAF Hills.
 
AaronLad said:
Not sure wtaf offers are beneficial for the pertemps. Unless you're a bookie
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Back to lay the only option really

As you mentioned above, they ironically cut the price of the winners despite that harming their chance

I agree though in principle, TWAF rarely works for any handicap, especially the Pertemps
 
Kevloaf said:
Back to lay the only option really

As you mentioned above, they ironically cut the price of the winners despite that harming their chance

I agree though in principle, TWAF rarely works for any handicap, especially the Pertemps
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Back to lay is an option but then you're hoping he wins, which is unlikely considering connections?
They'll not be wanting a win right?
 
AaronLad said:
Back to lay is an option but then you're hoping he wins, which is unlikely considering connections?
They'll not be wanting a win right?
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I wouldn't have thought so

Not one on my radar anyway, was just saying in general that'd be the only way to do it - althoug not sure would be able to actually lay off yet on Betfair, in fact certainly not they don't have the market yet do they

So in short, no​
 
I suppose it all depends on how you look at things.
last weekend my pertemps fancy was offered 20/1 nrmb, I opted to play the place for the qualifier at 9/4, a very good price. Not something that is available for jeriko.
My fancy was then available at 25/1 nrmb after finishing 2nd.
I ultimately have a potential 100pt return playing it that way for free?
 
AaronLad said:
I suppose it all depends on how you look at things.
last weekend my pertemps fancy was offered 20/1 nrmb, I opted to play the place for the qualifier at 9/4, a very good price. Not something that is available for jeriko.
My fancy was then available at 25/1 nrmb after finishing 2nd.
I ultimately have a potential 100pt return playing it that way for free?
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Yep, that sounds sensible

It seems to be the only angle that we have an advantage over the bookies, or where they are doing it the wrong way around

Horses that run in handicaps pre Cheltenhan, don't win and get pushed out NRNB, versus the winners who get cut

Jagwar a couple of weeks back stands out
 
What I'm essentially saying is either now or for future reference, if you're looking to play a horse declared, do it the way I've explained above, never take the price before they even qualified, for the pertemps,
 
AaronLad said:
No, not really.
The price already offered is on the assumption they qualify.
To be cut from current prices, you'd imagine he'd need to win impressively. With which his chance probably goes
He only needs to place top 4 to qualify, so the likelihood of him placing and being cut is unlikely.

If you like him for the final the best way to play would be a place bet today rolled on to potentially bigger odds
Click to expand...

Normally I’d agree but I’m not sure this horse is typical though. If they have had his trip wrong all this time he could be very well handicapped. James Bowen gave his supreme backers the jitters in a post race interview when he said he felt he was a staying novice type. With all the stuff since including the trainers form last year, his debacle of a chase debut etc. it may have been masking what he has really needed all along. I’d say IF he wins snuggly today folks holding an 80 -1 ticket will be in good shape as if this turns out to be his trip a few extra pounds may well not stop him. Another way of looking at it. If he wins today it will be because they think they have the leeway to take this en route which would be a tip in itself perhaps. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out shortly.
 
Rooster Booster said:
Normally I’d agree but I’m not sure this horse is typical though. If they have had his trip wrong all this time he could be very well handicapped. James Bowen gave his supreme backers the jitters in a post race interview when he said he felt he was a staying novice type. With all the stuff since including the trainers form last year, his debacle of a chase debut etc. it may have been masking what he has really needed all along. I’d say IF he wins snuggly today folks holding an 80 -1 ticket will be in good shape as if this turns out to be his trip a few extra pounds may well not stop him. Another way of looking at it. If he wins today it will be because they think they have the leeway to take this en route which would be a tip in itself perhaps. Will be fascinating to see how it pans out shortly.
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Looking at it like this I'd agree.
But id still be sceptical whether they'd risk winning.
It could however turn out just like you say
 
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