Excellent summary and useful first post. I am going to be doing quite a few more write ups on trainers/owners/jockeys, but i'l do a final summary with all findings on the Monday 11th.
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Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018
- Thread starter charlie
- Start date
Excellent summary and useful first post. I am going to be doing quite a few more write ups on trainers/owners/jockeys, but i'l do a final summary with all findings on the Monday 11th.
Humble Pie
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jono
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This really is superb stuff charlie. Can't imagine it was a quick thing to run through either.
Brilliant :encouragement:
Faugheen_Machine
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BigChaang
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I Agree , Thankyou Charlie , Hope you get some due reward for your effort this Festival.
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Thank you Charlie for that information, amazing analyse and something I wish I had read thoroughly before committing so many ante post accumulators. A massive help and very much appreciated.
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Without getting too needy and greedy would you guys who clearly know your melons from your lemons be kind enough to post some horse selections that fit the criteria to compliment Charlie’s analysis?? I generally struggle with the big field handicap hurdles at the Festival so any horses that you think are worth backing based on analysis would be a big help. I appreciate we don’t know which jockeys will definitely be riding which horses especially Davy Russell but any horses to back a month before??
The King Pimm
Fat Jockey Patron (est. Jan 2021)
Without getting too needy and greedy would you guys who clearly know your melons from your lemons be kind enough to post some horse selections that fit the criteria to compliment Charlie’s analysis?? I generally struggle with the big field handicap hurdles at the Festival so any horses that you think are worth backing based on analysis would be a big help. I appreciate we don’t know which jockeys will definitely be riding which horses especially Davy Russell but any horses to back a month before??
I'l add a 'with a view to Cheltenham' to the final summary, looking at potential runners. Will summarize everything on Monday 11th as well
The King Pimm
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Aldie1988
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Been a while since I've posted chaps I've been busy as hell. Great insight from all involved.
Charlie all of this analysis is invaluable mate. Top man
How early do you think Russell will be jocked up, so we can claim some decent prices before the raceday gambles?
Charlie all of this analysis is invaluable mate. Top man
How early do you think Russell will be jocked up, so we can claim some decent prices before the raceday gambles?
Venetia Williams Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018
Nick, Ian and Evan made this far more time consuming than it had to be
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
15 / 0 / 0 / 0
Close Brothers
10 / 0 / 0 / 0
Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Coral Cup
6 / 0 / 0 / 0
Fred Winter
8 / 0 / 0 / 0
Pertemps
7 / 1 / 0 / 0
2009 - Kayf Aramis 16/1
Brown Advisory
20 / 2 / 1 / 2
2013 – Carrickboy 50/1
2009 - Something Wells 33/1
Kim Muir
9 / 0 / 0 / 1
Martin Pipe
8 / 0 / 0 / 1
County Hurdle
5 / 0 / 0 / 0
Grand Annual
13 / 0 / 0 / 1
Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 101
Winners: 3
Placed: 3
A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10
Has never placed in the County Hurdle, Fred Winter, Coral Cup, Close Brothers or Ultima.
This is actually a really straightforward one to sum up. Open your Racing Post each morning during the festival, turn to the Cheltenham cards, take a pen and unless you see ‘Brown Advisory’ listed as the race in question, put a line through every one of VW runners and move on.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 5 - 305
2017 – 0 – 9 - 312
2016 – 0 – 8 - 419
2015 – 0 – 9 - 441
2014 – 0 – 10 - 574
2013 – 1 – 14 - 533
2012 – 0 – 11 - 401
2011 – 0 – 9 - 372
2010 – 0 – 7 - 404
2009 – 2 – 13 - 424
2008 – 0 – 6 - 465
Conclusion with a view to Cheltenham
Ignore every runner VW sends to the Cheltenham festival unless it runs in the Brown Advisory. I love it when trainers target a handicap and VW sends more horses down the Brown Advisory route than any other race.
I have backed Cepage 14/1 EW NRNB Brown Advisory.
With Frodon now Gold Cup bound that form in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is looking solid, as is beating BetVictor Gold Cup winner Baron Alco 17 lengths and Guitar Pete 15 lengths last time out (albeit receiving weight). Baron Alco was 2nd in the Brown Advisory in 2017 and Guitar Pete was 6th in the Brown Advisory last year.
If you watch the Caspian Caviar back (link below) Cepage jumps well, wings the 3rd last and as he comes down the hill Charlie Deutsch gives him a few reminders then realises quite quickly he had enough left to come up to Frodon. Was then pushed up the hill to mount a challenge, jumped the last 3 lengths down before rallying well to lose by a length. The way he rallied was eye catching, as was the improvement in his jumping in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup vs his previous run at Cheltenham. He is still relatively young and there’s no reason to think there isn’t improvement in him
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-racing/race
replays/2018/12/15/#caspian_caviar_gold_cup_handicap_chase_grade_3
Venetia is having a brilliant season too. She’s already approaching last season’s prize-money total and there are just under 3 months of the season still left to go. Charlie Deutsch has been absolutely flying since his return and Venetia says "He’s so good from the front and it makes sense that he often goes there - you haven’t got horses intimidating you, you can get into a rhythm and you have a nice view of the fences”. Given Cepage had no problem following a strong pace set by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar, I think they will jump Cepage out prominently and try and win it from the front. The engine and desire to chase Frodon up that hill and is exactly what I want to be seeing from a horse over C&D before backing them for the Brown Advisory
Nick, Ian and Evan made this far more time consuming than it had to be
Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3
Ultima
15 / 0 / 0 / 0
Close Brothers
10 / 0 / 0 / 0
Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0
Coral Cup
6 / 0 / 0 / 0
Fred Winter
8 / 0 / 0 / 0
Pertemps
7 / 1 / 0 / 0
2009 - Kayf Aramis 16/1
Brown Advisory
20 / 2 / 1 / 2
2013 – Carrickboy 50/1
2009 - Something Wells 33/1
Kim Muir
9 / 0 / 0 / 1
Martin Pipe
8 / 0 / 0 / 1
County Hurdle
5 / 0 / 0 / 0
Grand Annual
13 / 0 / 0 / 1
Summary
Total Handicap Runners: 101
Winners: 3
Placed: 3
A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10
Has never placed in the County Hurdle, Fred Winter, Coral Cup, Close Brothers or Ultima.
This is actually a really straightforward one to sum up. Open your Racing Post each morning during the festival, turn to the Cheltenham cards, take a pen and unless you see ‘Brown Advisory’ listed as the race in question, put a line through every one of VW runners and move on.
Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners
2018 – 0 – 5 - 305
2017 – 0 – 9 - 312
2016 – 0 – 8 - 419
2015 – 0 – 9 - 441
2014 – 0 – 10 - 574
2013 – 1 – 14 - 533
2012 – 0 – 11 - 401
2011 – 0 – 9 - 372
2010 – 0 – 7 - 404
2009 – 2 – 13 - 424
2008 – 0 – 6 - 465
Conclusion with a view to Cheltenham
Ignore every runner VW sends to the Cheltenham festival unless it runs in the Brown Advisory. I love it when trainers target a handicap and VW sends more horses down the Brown Advisory route than any other race.
I have backed Cepage 14/1 EW NRNB Brown Advisory.
With Frodon now Gold Cup bound that form in Caspian Caviar Gold Cup is looking solid, as is beating BetVictor Gold Cup winner Baron Alco 17 lengths and Guitar Pete 15 lengths last time out (albeit receiving weight). Baron Alco was 2nd in the Brown Advisory in 2017 and Guitar Pete was 6th in the Brown Advisory last year.
If you watch the Caspian Caviar back (link below) Cepage jumps well, wings the 3rd last and as he comes down the hill Charlie Deutsch gives him a few reminders then realises quite quickly he had enough left to come up to Frodon. Was then pushed up the hill to mount a challenge, jumped the last 3 lengths down before rallying well to lose by a length. The way he rallied was eye catching, as was the improvement in his jumping in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup vs his previous run at Cheltenham. He is still relatively young and there’s no reason to think there isn’t improvement in him
https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-racing/race
replays/2018/12/15/#caspian_caviar_gold_cup_handicap_chase_grade_3
Venetia is having a brilliant season too. She’s already approaching last season’s prize-money total and there are just under 3 months of the season still left to go. Charlie Deutsch has been absolutely flying since his return and Venetia says "He’s so good from the front and it makes sense that he often goes there - you haven’t got horses intimidating you, you can get into a rhythm and you have a nice view of the fences”. Given Cepage had no problem following a strong pace set by Frodon in the Caspian Caviar, I think they will jump Cepage out prominently and try and win it from the front. The engine and desire to chase Frodon up that hill and is exactly what I want to be seeing from a horse over C&D before backing them for the Brown Advisory
It is worth pointing out that P Townend was originally jocked up for Bleu Berry but had to switch to Max Dynamite after Ruby got injured.
Also out of the 'Davy Hcap' stats I see 2 Chris Jones horses ( Noble Endeavor 3rd ; Tiger Cry 5th and 1st ). Not bad without having to dig too deep.
Excellent stats etc btw. Thanks.
Also out of the 'Davy Hcap' stats I see 2 Chris Jones horses ( Noble Endeavor 3rd ; Tiger Cry 5th and 1st ). Not bad without having to dig too deep.
Excellent stats etc btw. Thanks.
Rhinestone_Cowboy
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Yeh Il be doing a summary on Monday 11th with conclusions to a view to each handicap
BigChaang
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