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Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

Brillliant thread Charlie. Absolutely superb info. Cheers.

Would you be able to do Gigginstown if you got the chance. There’s a couple of things I think they have in the handicaps that I’m interested to see if the trends agree with.
 
Middle_Of_March said:
Brillliant thread Charlie. Absolutely superb info. Cheers.

Would you be able to do Gigginstown if you got the chance. There’s a couple of things I think they have in the handicaps that I’m interested to see if the trends agree with.
Click to expand...

No worries pal. Sure. Henderson, Gigginstown, Mullins on the cards. Il do a trainer analysis alongside the Gigginstown one
 
charlie said:
No worries pal. Sure. Henderson, Gigginstown, Mullins on the cards. Il do a trainer analysis alongside the Gigginstown one
Click to expand...

Brilliant - thanks again. One of my favourite threads of the year without a doubt.
 
Gigginstown House Stud Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Ultima
2 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
6 / 0 / 0 / 0

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Rivage D’Or 16/1

Coral Cup
7 / 0 / 1 / 1

Pertemps
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2018 – Delta Work 6/1

Brown Advisory
4 / 2 / 0 / 1
2017 - Road To Respect 14/1
2016 - Empire Of Dirt 16/1

Kim Muir
3 / 0 / 0 / 1

Martin Pipe
10 / 4 / 1 / 2
2018 – Blow By Blow 11/1
2017 – Champagne Classic 12/1
2014 – Don Poli 12/1
2011 - Sir Des Champs 9/2f

County Hurdle
8 / 0 / 0 / 0

Grand Annual
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2014 – Savello 16/1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 50
Winners: 9 (18%)
Placed: 5 (9.6%)

A £10 level stake across all Gigginstown horses would leave you up £665

Trainer / Runners / Winners / Place / Beat Fav

G Elliott / 22 / 3 / 4 /2
W P Mullins / 9 / 2 / 1 / 1
A J Martin 5 / 2 / 0 / 0
N Meade 3 / 1 / 0 / 0
C A Murphy 1 / 1 / 0 / 0

Gordon wins or places 31% of all handicaps

Races

Obviously their record in the Martin Pipe is phenomenal, with 4 of their 10 runners winning the race.

One winning favourite in Sir Des Champs. The average price of their other 8 winners is 11/1, hence why the return off £10 level stakes is so high.

Never won the Ultima, Close Brothers, Coral Cup, Kim Muir or County Hurdle.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland)

2018 – 2 – 5 - 940
2017 – 2 – 8 - 877
2016 – 1 – 3 - 653
2015 – 1 – 7 - 660
2014 – 2 – 3 - 608
2013 – 0 – 9 - 504
2012 – 0 – 6 - 439
2011 – 1 – 6 - 442
2010 – 0 – 0 - 318
2009 – 0 – 2 - 300
2008 – 0 – 1 – 241

Conclusion

We all know the regard Michael O'Leary holds for handicaps at Cheltenham, but even still, their record is superb. I always think of Gigginstown as mob handed at Cheltenham but they have never sent more than 10 horses handicapping at the festival in one year which I found quite surprising. To put that into perspective, JP McManus sent 155 more horses to handicaps over the last decade than Gigginstown. It is particularly noticeable when you look at the number of horses in Gigginstown's ownership and the number of runners they have each season in Ireland.

Their win to run ratio in the last 5 years is very good, to put it lightly. Gordon Elliot now trains 44% of all their entries. Willie had a better strike rate than Gordon (22%) but that's now irrelevant after the fallout over training fees.

Have run 3 or less runners in the Ultima (2) and Kim Muir (3), so little interest. Have won the Pertemps (4) and Cross Country (2) once, with 4 or less runners. Again, little interest.

Their record in the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory is superb, having sent 14 runners and won 6 times at an average price of 11/1. I'l be keeping a keen eye out on their horses in these races.

Henderson up next
 
Great work again Charlie.
Have to say I'm surprised at the Giggs M Pipe record, never really consider them as an outfit targeting handicap hurdles but 4 winners in last 8 years is staggering.

Will be very useful to see the data compressed into a single bullet point summary sheet, could be invaluable...
 
Good stuff again Charlie.

That Brown Advisory is made for Blow By Blow, and their record in it is very good!
 
Totally agree - Great stuff Charlie. On the Gigginstown subject , a quick look through,
And i see - Brown plate - Mortal @ 16-1.
Blow by Blow @ 20-1.

Martin pipe - Dallas des pictons @10-1.
C. of fleet @10-1.
Monbeg W.wide @ 20-1.
Felix Desjy @ 20-1.
Blow by blow @ 20-1.
Choungaya @ 66-1.
 
BigChaang said:
Totally agree - Great stuff Charlie. On the Gigginstown subject , a quick look through,
And i see - Brown plate - Mortal @ 16-1.
Blow by Blow @ 20-1.

Martin pipe - Dallas des pictons @10-1.
C. of fleet @10-1.
Monbeg W.wide @ 20-1.
Felix Desjy @ 20-1.
Blow by blow @ 20-1.
Choungaya @ 66-1.
Click to expand...

Great stuff, thanks BigChaang
 
charlie said:
Gigginstown House Stud Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Ultima
2 / 0 / 0 / 0

Close Brothers
6 / 0 / 0 / 0

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Rivage D’Or 16/1

Coral Cup
7 / 0 / 1 / 1

Pertemps
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2018 – Delta Work 6/1

Brown Advisory
4 / 2 / 0 / 1
2017 - Road To Respect 14/1
2016 - Empire Of Dirt 16/1

Kim Muir
3 / 0 / 0 / 1

Martin Pipe
10 / 4 / 1 / 2
2018 – Blow By Blow 11/1
2017 – Champagne Classic 12/1
2014 – Don Poli 12/1
2011 - Sir Des Champs 9/2f

County Hurdle
8 / 0 / 0 / 0

Grand Annual
4 / 1 / 0 / 0
2014 – Savello 16/1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 50
Winners: 9 (18%)
Placed: 5 (9.6%)

A £10 level stake across all Gigginstown horses would leave you up £665

Trainer / Runners / Winners / Place / Beat Fav

G Elliott / 22 / 3 / 4 /2
W P Mullins / 9 / 2 / 1 / 1
A J Martin 5 / 2 / 0 / 0
N Meade 3 / 1 / 0 / 0
C A Murphy 1 / 1 / 0 / 0

Gordon wins or places 31% of all handicaps

Races

Obviously their record in the Martin Pipe is phenomenal, with 4 of their 10 runners winning the race.

One winning favourite in Sir Des Champs. The average price of their other 8 winners is 11/1, hence why the return off £10 level stakes is so high.

Never won the Ultima, Close Brothers, Coral Cup, Kim Muir or County Hurdle.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners (Ireland)

2018 – 2 – 5 - 940
2017 – 2 – 8 - 877
2016 – 1 – 3 - 653
2015 – 1 – 7 - 660
2014 – 2 – 3 - 608
2013 – 0 – 9 - 504
2012 – 0 – 6 - 439
2011 – 1 – 6 - 442
2010 – 0 – 0 - 318
2009 – 0 – 2 - 300
2008 – 0 – 1 – 241

Conclusion

We all know the regard Michael O'Leary holds for handicaps at Cheltenham, but even still, their record is superb. I always think of Gigginstown as mob handed at Cheltenham but they have never sent more than 10 horses handicapping at the festival in one year which I found quite surprising. To put that into perspective, JP McManus sent 155 more horses to handicaps over the last decade than Gigginstown. It is particularly noticeable when you look at the number of horses in Gigginstown's ownership and the number of runners they have each season in Ireland.

Their win to run ratio in the last 5 years is very good, to put it lightly. Gordon Elliot now trains 44% of all their entries. Willie had a better strike rate than Gordon (22%) but that's now irrelevant after the fallout over training fees.

Have run 3 or less runners in the Ultima (2) and Kim Muir (3), so little interest. Have won the Pertemps (4) and Cross Country (2) once, with 4 or less runners. Again, little interest.

Their record in the Martin Pipe and Brown Advisory is superb, having sent 14 runners and won 6 times at an average price of 11/1. I'l be keeping a keen eye out on their horses in these races.

Henderson up next
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Cheers Charlie.

I knew their MP record was excellent and that DDP is a bet for that race with their record.

But I didn’t realise the Plate record is also very good.
 
I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out
 
Hurricane fly said:
I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out
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Nob handed definitely the best FJF typo :highly_amused:
 
Hurricane fly said:
I also read today how GE only ever runs one horse in each graded race

So while I also see them as nob handed because of Irish racing it’s clear when Giggi/Gordon come to Cheltenham none of their runners are there for the day out
Click to expand...

Really?!

I had never ever noticed that!

Can that be true?!

You got a link?
 
Slightly misread, could just be one for Giggi

2djeamv.jpg
 
Nicky Henderson Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Runners / Winners / Losing Fav / Placed 1-3

Ultima
13 / 0 / 1 / 2

Close Brothers
21 / 1 / 1 / 5
2013 - Rajdhani Express 16/1

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
0 / 0 / 0 / 0

Fred Winter
14 / 1 / 2 / 2
2012 – Une Artiste 40/1

Coral Cup
32 / 2 / 2 / 1
2014 – Whisper 14/1
2010 – Spirit River 14/1

Pertemps
15 / 1 / 0 / 0
2015 – Call The Cops 9/1

Brown Advisory
19 / 0 / 0 / 0

Kim Muir
13 / 0 / 0 / 2

Martin Pipe
25 / 1 / 1 / 3
2009 – Andytown 25/1

County Hurdle
17 / 0 / 1 / 1

Grand Annual
29 / 1 / 3 / 6
2012 – Bellvano 20/1

Summary

Total Handicap Runners: 198
Winners: 7 (3.5%)
Placed: 24 (12.4%)

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £530, and that’s keeping in mind 4 of his 7 winners won at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

Season / Cheltenham Winners / Handicap Entries / Total NH Runners

2018 – 0 – 19 - 524
2017 – 0 – 16 - 618
2016 – 0 – 14 - 414
2015 – 1 – 15 - 499
2014 – 1 – 22 - 514
2013 – 1 – 19 - 509
2012 – 2 – 23 - 627
2011 – 0 – 22 - 612
2010 – 1 – 20 - 511
2009 – 1 – 19 - 499
2008 – 0 – 9 - 377

Races

Never won the County Hurdle, Kim Muir, Brown Advisory or Ultima, having tried with 62 runners, 5 of which placed. In the Brown Advisory Nicky sends an average of 2 runners per year and has never once placed. Other than Call The Cops in 2015, Nicky has never placed in 34 attempts in the Pertemps and Brown Advisory

Never sent a runner cross country.

44% of all his runners go Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and Grand Annual. 6/11 losing favorites comes from these races.

It’s quite difficult to draw any meaningful trends/conclusions as 6/7 winners have come from different races spread across a number of years.

Conclusions

I love Nicky Henderson. His record in graded races at the Cheltenham Festival is second to none and should be applauded by all, but this success does not spill over into the handicaps (I doubt he gives one single shit when you look at his record on the Champion Hurdle, RSA, Champion Chase etc).

In the last 10 years 11/198 Nicky Henderson handicap entries have gone off favorite. None have won at the Cheltenham Festival.

His 7/198 winners have won with an average SP of 20/1, with 6/7 being won in different races.

Comparing to a trainer of similar size (stable wise :)), Paul Nicholls has trained 5 more handicap winners than Nicky with 40 less attempts over the last 10 years, and posts a positive ROI of +£130 across all his runners, vs
- £530 for backing all of Nicky’s. Were it not for some big priced winners you would have done your absolute bollocks following Nicky Henderson over the last decade in handicaps at Cheltenham.

Nicky hasn’t won a handicap since 2015 at Cheltenham despite averaging 1 a year since 2008.

Paul and Nicky have had 1/22 winning favs between them at Cheltenham over the last 10 years.

Like I said at the start, Nicky will be dreaming about BVD and Altior doing the business and not whether or not he can land the Ultima for the first time, but I thought it made for interesting reading for us punters nonetheless
 
Great work that Charlie.
I always knew his record in handicaps wasn't great but had no idea it was that poor, your analysis has certainly given some clarity there.

This thread is a must read on Monday 11th March....
 
Great stuff Charlie. Why am I not surprised the Irish do well in the handicaps. You'll be putting a few more on that list after this seasons fez Imo.
 
Another graveyard race at the festival for Henderson & Nicholls is the 4 Miler. Neither has won the race, remember that when you sit with a some AP tickets.
 
doctorwu said:
Another graveyard race at the festival for Henderson & Nicholls is the 4 Miler. Neither has won the race, remember that when you sit with a some AP tickets.
Click to expand...

Only a silly billy would factor that stat into their thought process.

I changed the silly billy bit:)
 
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