• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Owner / Trainer Handicap Analysis - 2008 - 2018

Richard Johnson Handicap Performance 2008 – 2018

Year / Position / Horse / Price / Trainer

Wins in bold
Placed 2-4 in italics

Ultima
2017 / 10th / A Good Skin / 14/1 / T R George
2016 / 5th / Kruzhlinin / 9/1 / P J Hobbs
2015 / PU / Lamb Or Cod / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 7th / Ackertac / 20/1 / Tim Vaughan
2013 / 11th / Planet of Sound / 40/1 / P J Hobbs
2009 / 6th / Lacdoudal / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2008 / PU / Monkerhostin / 8/1 / P J Hobbs

Close Brothers
2018 / 7th / Kayf Adventure / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2016 / 14th / Killala Quay / 12/1 / C E Longsdon
2015 / 4th / Horizontal Speed / 12/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 6th / Persian Snow / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2013 / 8th / Vulcanite / 16/1 / C E Longsdon
2012 / 14th / Saint Are / 33/1 / Tim Vaughan
2011 / PU / Rougham / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2010 / 1st / Copper Bleu / 11/1 / P J Hobbs
2009 / 7th / Pancake / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2008 / 13th / Gold Medallist / 12/1 / P J Hobbs

Cross Country (Handicap from 2008 – 2015)
2015 / 8th / Duke Of Lucca / 5/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 1st / Balthazar King / 4/1 / P J Hobbs
2012 / 1st / Balthazar King / 11/2 / P J Hobbs
2010 / 14th / Monkerhostin / 11/1 / P J Hobbs

Coral Cup
2018 / 19th / Springtown Lake / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2016 / 22nd / Rock The Kasbah / 15/2F / P J Hobbs
2015 / 15th / Mijhaar / 25/1 / J P Ferguson
2014 / 14th / Clondaw Kaempfer / 14/1 / D McCain Jnr
2013 / PU / Sadler's Risk / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2010 / 14th / Good Old Thyme / 40/1 / Dr R D P Newland
2008 / 11th / County Zen / 11/2F / P J Hobbs

Fred Winter
2018 / PU / Oxford Blu / 14/1 / Olly Murphy
2017 / 1st / Flying Tiger / 33/1 / Nick Williams
2016 / 13th / Pillard / 25/1 / Jonjo O'Neill
2015 / F / Golden Doyen / 14/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 19th / Le Fin Bois / 25/1 / Tim Vaughan
2013 / PU / Pistol / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2011 / 9th / Paintball / 15/2 / C E Longsdon
2010 / 23rd / Diktalina / 28/1 / Mrs A M Thorpe
2009 / 21st / Bruslini / 20/1 / P J Hobbs

Pertemps
2018 / 12th / Louis' Vac Pouch / 10/1 / P J Hobbs
2017 / 9th / For Good Measure / 10/1 / P J Hobbs
2016 / 3rd / If In Doubt / 10/1 / P J Hobbs
2015 / 12th / Big Easy / 11/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 1st / Fingal Bay / 9/2F / / P J Hobbs
2013 / 14th / Fair Along / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2011 / 18th / Duke Of Lucca / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2009 / 16th / Mister Gloss / 33/1 / P J Hobbs

Brown Advisory
2018 / 15th / Village Vic / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2017 / 11th / Village Vic / 16/1 / P J Hobbs
2016 / PU / Fingal Bay / 8/1 / P J Hobbs
2015 / 19th / Filbert / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2013 / 3rd / Tartak / 20/1 / Tim Vaughan
2010 / 3rd / From Dawn To Dusk / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2009 / PU / Oceanos des Obeaux / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2008 / 6th / Boychuk / 25/1 / P J Hobbs

County Hurdle
2018 / 10th / Sternrubin / 40/1 / P J Hobbs
2017 / 9th / Wait For Me / 10/1 / P J Hobbs
2017 / 4th / Wait For Me / 7/1F / P J Hobbs
2016 / 8th / Cheltenian / 7/1F / P J Hobbs
2015 / PU / Cheltenian / 5/1F / P J Hobbs
2013 / PU / Caravel / 100/1 / Tim Vaughan
2011 / 4th / Cockney Trucker/ 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2010 / 13th / Oldrik / 8/1 / P J Hobbs
2009 / 3rd / Cockney Trucker/ 17/2 / P J Hobbs
2008 / 3rd / French Saulaie / 40/1 / P J Hobbs

Grand Annual
2018 / 13th / Garde La Victoire / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2017 / 12th / Bold Henry / 33/1 / P J Hobbs
2016 / F / Bold Henry / 40/1 / P J Hobbs
2015 / 14th / Bold Henry / 25/1 / P J Hobbs
2014 / 4th / Next Sensation / 7/1 / M Scudamore
2011 / 10th / Keki Buku / 20/1 / P J Hobbs
2010 / PU / Fighting Chance/ 10/1 / R Lee
2008 / PU / Lord Henry / 25/1 / P J Hobbs

Summary

Total Rides: 71 (53 Philip Hobbs)
Wins: 5 (7%)
2nds: 0
3rds: 5
4ths: 4
Losing Fav: 5
PU: 12
F: 2

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£90.

Were it not for Flying Tiger you would be down -£430

53 rides for Philip Hobbs. Setting aside his 5 winners, 4 placed 2nd or 3rd.
20% of his rides PU or F
10th or worse in 60% of his rides at Cheltenham (Davy Russel is 40%)
4 out of his 5 winners came between 2010 – 2014
Never won the Ultima, Coral Cup, Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Brown Advisory
Never placed top 4 in the Ultima or Coral Cup.
Placed top 4 in the County more than any other race
Other than winning on Fingal Bay, his record on favorites is – 22nd, 11th, PU, 8th and 4th.
Other than winning the Fred Winter in 2017, its his race with the worse average finishing position

It’s hard not to be underwhelmed. He did well in 2012 & 2014 with Balthazar King, and winning the Fred Winter which is historically is a race with his worst finishing position. He obviously rides mostly for Philip Hobbs in the Handicaps and generally comes in for quite a lot of support. Hobbs ridden horses between 10/1 – 12/1 (usually towards the top of the betting) have finished 13th, 14th, PU, 4th, 12th, 9th, 3rd, 12th, 1st, 9th, PU.
 
Last edited:
Thought I'd refresh this thread , as it was lurking on page 3 ....... might come in useful on wed,thurs ,fri .
if Tues has gone badly ...:highly_amused:
 
On my to-do list to read this properly today! (again)

Did you say you we're doing some more Charlie? Or a summary?

I'm sure your legion of followers are looking forward to it ;)
 
Final Summary

I would have liked to have done more of these but started relatively late this year but rest assured, going to do loads more next year with more time.

There's nothing particularly new in each of these, but it puts them all in one place with some key stats and horses to look out for.

Owner - JP
Trainer – David Pipe
Trainer - Paul Nicholls
Trainer - Jonjo O'Neill
Owner - Gigginstown House Stud
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Davy Russell
Trainer - Venetia Williams
Jockey - Barry Geraghty
Jockey – Richard Johnson

JP Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

KEY STAT: Whilst the JP plot doesn’t exist, 3 horses accounted for 43% of all his placed runners over a decade, so look out for these three:

BOUVREUIL
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

LE PREZIEN
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

NO COMMENT
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16

David Pipe Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£220

Total Handicap Runners: 139
Winners: 10 (7%)
Placed: 12 (9.3%)

David Pipe places horses with festival form very well but the plot, similar to JP MacManus owned horses, is a myth. 9% of Pipe runners go off favourite in handicaps with only 2 of those going on to win. Pipe appears to have little interest in the Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Close Brothers and Cross Country. 46% of all his runners over the last decade have gone to the Kim Muir, Pertemps and Ultima

Paul Nicholls Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up £130

Total Handicap Runners: 158
Winners: 12 (7.5% strike rate)
Placed: 15 (10%)

KEY STAT: 10 (83%) of his winners have come from the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.

He is consistently poor in the Ultima, Kim Muir, Cross Country, Pertemps and Brown Advisory, and consistently strong in the Fred Winter, Martin Pipe, County Hurdle and Grand Annual.

KEY STAT: 83% of his handicap winners in the last decade have come from these 4 races where he has won 10/73. 75% of his handicap winners have gone off double figure prices so don’t be put off by larger prices.

Jonjo O’Neill Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£385

Total Handicap Runners: 104
Winners: 5 (4.8%)
Placed: 10 (10%)
Losing Favourites: 6 (5.7%)

KEY STAT: 3 out of 5 of his winners have been in the Ultima – MINELLA ROCCO

63% of his 104 handicap entries have been owned by JP MacManus, with 5/6 of his losing favourites being owned by JP MacManus. I’d say they are more heavily punted than most.

Gigginstown House Stud Summary

A £10 level stake across all Gigginstown horses would leave you up £665

Total Handicap Runners: 50
Winners: 9 (18%)
Placed: 5 (9.6%)


KEY STAT: Their record in the Martin Pipe is phenomenal, with 4 of their 10 runners winning the race.

One winning favourite in Sir Des Champs. The average price of their other 8 winners is 11/1, hence why the return off £10 level stakes is so high.

Never won the Ultima, Close Brothers, Coral Cup, Kim Muir or County Hurdle.

Nicky Henderson Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £530, and that’s keeping in mind 4 of his 7 winners won at 40/1, 25/1, 20/1 and 16/1.

Total Handicap Runners: 198
Winners: 7 (3.5%)
Placed: 24 (12.4%)

KEY STAT: Never won the County Hurdle, Kim Muir, Brown Advisory or Ultima, having tried with 62 runners, 5 of which placed.

In the Brown Advisory Nicky sends an average of 2 runners per year and has never once placed. Other than Call The Cops in 2015, Nicky has never placed in 34 attempts in the Pertemps and Brown Advisory

44% of all his runners go Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and Grand Annual. 6/11 losing favorites comes from these races.

Willie Mullins Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£145

Total Handicap Runners: 112
Winners: 8 (7%)
Placed: 8 (7.6%)

22 (20%) of his horses have run in the Close Brothers, Pertemps, Brown Advisory, Kim Muir and Grand Annual. He has never won those 6 races, or the Fred Winter and Cross Country.

KEY STAT 100% of Willie Mullins handicap winners over the last decade have come from the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle. 71 (63%) of all Willies runners go to the Coral Cup, Martin Pipe and County Hurdle.

KEY STAT: P Townend is his most successful handicap jockey having won twice and been third twice.

Average priced winner is 14/1. He has 1 winning favourite, 8 losing favourites.

Davy Russell Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you up +£735.

Total Rides: 47
Wins: 10 (21%)

2nds: 3 (6%)
3rds: 4 (8%)
4ths: 2 (4%)

The average SP of Davy’s winner’s is 10/1.

KEY STAT: Assuming you are paid 1-4 on a place, Davy has won or placed in 17/47 handicaps at Cheltenham, a strike rate of 40%.

His best strike rates are in the Pertemps 3/5, and Coral Cup 3/9
Never finished outside the top 5 in the Grand Annual.
Never finished inside the top 10 in the County Hurdle
Placed 1/7 in Close Brothers
He has placed in 3/5 Ultima’s NOBLE ENDEAVOR

His record for Pat Kelly is 2/2
His record for Arthur Moore from 5 runs is 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
His record for A J Martin 2 wins from 5 runs. Rivage D’or & Savello
He has won 4 times for Gordon from 14 rides

Basically whatever Davy rides in a handicap, bet on it.

Venetia Williams Summary

A £10 level stake across all her handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£10

Total Handicap Runners: 101
Winners: 3
Placed: 3

KEY STAT: 2 wins Brown Advisory at huge prices so watch what she runs.

Barry Geraghty Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£435

Total Rides: 66 (44 for Nicky Henderson)
Wins: 4 (6%)
2nds: 3
3rds: 0
4ths: 1
Losing Fav: 7
PU: 16
F: 2

BG is 13th or worse 37/66 times, 25/66 have PU, F or lost as favourite - doesn't make for great reading

KEY STAT: 66% of his rides for Nicky Henderson but 75% of his winners with other trainers (P F Nicholls, N P Mulholland, T J Taaffe)


Richard Johnson Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down -£90.

Total Rides: 71 (53 Philip Hobbs)
Wins: 5 (7%)
2nds: 0
3rds: 5
4ths: 4
Losing Fav: 5
PU: 12
F: 2

53 rides for Philip Hobbs. Setting aside his 5 winners, 4 placed 2nd or 3rd.

KEY STAT: 10th or worse in 65% of his rides at Cheltenham

Never won the Ultima, Coral Cup, Grand Annual, County Hurdle, Brown Advisory

Never placed top 4 in the Ultima or Coral Cup.
 
Last edited:
Absolutely fabulous effort here Charlie! Thank you very much for taking the time
 
Minella Rocco
Noble Endeavor
Cubomania

All positives :)
 
Cracking effort from you Charlie, thanks for all of these this season.
 
Awesome work Charlie, thank you. It’s people like you that make this forum the best.
 
Cheers for the kind words people. Hopefully steer us towards the odd winner
 
A big thank you Charlie, I wasn’t aware of many of those trends before reading your analysis and hopefully saved a few quid by steering away from a few of those Trainers & Jockeys over the next few days.
 
Think this body of work is worth a big bump. @charlie you've really excelled here and it would be a shame to see this lie forgotten - if there are updates that have significant import then great! If not, what a useful reference we have here for nearer the time.
 
Top Man Charlie!! Unreal work that
 
It’s a brilliant piece of analysis and work isn’t it and takes some of the hot air out of a few Festival betting myths especially JP McManus & Willie Mullins.
 
Bump.

Charlie isn't that active at the moment but did he do this including 2019 can anyone remember?



Gutted that Gordon Elliott isn't covered, means I've gotta do it myself :dejection:
 
charlie said:
Final Summary

I would have liked to have done more of these but started relatively late this year but rest assured, going to do loads more next year with more time.

There's nothing particularly new in each of these, but it puts them all in one place with some key stats and horses to look out for.

Owner - JP
Trainer – David Pipe
Trainer - Paul Nicholls
Trainer - Jonjo O'Neill
Owner - Gigginstown House Stud
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Davy Russell
Trainer - Venetia Williams
Jockey - Barry Geraghty
Jockey – Richard Johnson

JP Summary

A £10 level stake across all his handicap runners from 2008-2018 would leave you down - £860.

Total Handicap Runners: 205
Winners: 10 (4.8% strike rate)
Placed: 26 (12% strike rate)

KEY STAT: Whilst the JP plot doesn’t exist, 3 horses accounted for 43% of all his placed runners over a decade, so look out for these three:

BOUVREUIL
2015 - Fred Winter – 2/22
2016 - Close Brothers – 2/20
2017 - Brown Advisory – 3/24
2018 - Grand Annual – BD

LE PREZIEN
2017 - Grand Annual – 8/24
2018 - Grand Annual – 1/22

NO COMMENT
2017 - Martin Pipe – 7/23
2018 - National Hunt Chase – 6/16
Click to expand...

I would be interested to add the last 2 years in here.
and see how it affect's the overall stat's , Especially after this.
Years festival results.:encouragement:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom