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National Hunt Chase (4 miler) 2018

Scooby91 said:
Pretty sure monbeg notorious goes for the Irish national alongside mossback

To be fair they haven't said dounikos deffinately goes here yet.
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Yes heard them mention the Irish National for MN and the exchanges suggest that he wont be running at the Festival... just think its an odd one to miss the Festival with a horse of his quality. Will definitely backing him for Fairyhouse if he doesn't come here.
 
doctorwu said:
Having gone through this race with the 5 strongest trends these are the following horses that come out on top.

28/32 1st or 2nd last 2 runs
14/15 age 6,7,8
last 6 winners at least 143
19/20 1st or 2nd in 3m chase
30/33 at least 4 runs
No winners this century were beaten fav last time out
Its not surprising at all that they feature at the top of the betting.

Elegant Escape
Jury Duty
Monbeg Notorious
Mossback
Moulin a Vent
Keeper Hill
Presenting Perc

The last 2 on the list are doubtful.
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With the non runners that leaves Elegant Escape, Jury Duty, Moulin a Vent, and possibly Keeper Hill(has other engagements).

If a decent jockey booking is done for EE he is my strongest bet on the 1st day. I can't have Jury Duty, and the other 2????
 
doctorwu said:
With the non runners that leaves Elegant Escape, Jury Duty, Moulin a Vent, and possibly Keeper Hill(has other engagements).

If a decent jockey booking is done for EE he is my strongest bet on the 1st day. I can't have Jury Duty, and the other 2????
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EE is still likely rsa imo.
 
doctorwu said:
Scooby,
Surely that Tizzard talk of no jockey was his way of putting it out there that they need to call him........no?
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Who's going to call him? . They're all jocked up through Gordon Imo. Not long until we will see.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Yes heard them mention the Irish National for MN and the exchanges suggest that he wont be running at the Festival... just think its an odd one to miss the Festival with a horse of his quality. Will definitely backing him for Fairyhouse if he doesn't come here.
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Be gutted if neither MN or Mossback turned up. Would be guaranteed a good amateur jockey on their back such as Lisa O'Neill but given the importance of Irish GN for trainer's championship I'm pessimistic we'll see wither at Cheltenham
 
twitter
Lisa O'Neil not booked up on anything thus far.
 
mall dini has to be going for this. been given the same mark of 11-10 as it was in last years kim muir so can see it swerving that race. was gaining on them last year up the hill in that race as well so 4 miles should do the trick
 
doctorwu said:
Scooby,
Surely that Tizzard talk of no jockey was his way of putting it out there that they need to call him........no?
Click to expand...

I thought he may have already sounded one out, but after what happened with DOC, didn't want to say much publically.

Like yourself, I'm hoping he comes here, too.
 
Roadtorespect said:
mall dini has to be going for this. been given the same mark of 11-10 as it was in last years kim muir so can see it swerving that race. was gaining on them last year up the hill in that race as well so 4 miles should do the trick
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HAve their been any comments or movement in the market on that?

I'd say off the same weight, finishing 5th only beaten 3L they'd be in line to give that another crack knowing they don't have a lot to find?
 
TimRiggins said:
I thought he may have already sounded one out, but after what happened with DOC, didn't want to say much publically.

Like yourself, I'm hoping he comes here, too.
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Tim,
I love you really.:very_drunk:
 
Kevloaf said:
HAve their been any comments or movement in the market on that?

I'd say off the same weight, finishing 5th only beaten 3L they'd be in line to give that another crack knowing they don't have a lot to find?
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think he's 8-1 for both races with 365. id say they were hoping for a nicer weight. it hasnt won a race since the pertemps in 2016 and surely that should warrant a drop. id prefer to see him in the 4 miler. economical jumper who'd slowly creep up on them and would be sure enough of staying.
 
Ive been told Mall Dini to the Kim Muir as posted on that thread. I will try and check that out.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I can't believe the price of Dounikos. Madness to my eyes and agree there isn't anything to give you confidence that this trip is what he needs.
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After the quotes from Elliott tonight at the preview

"want to run Dounikos in the 4 miler but the owners wanted to run in the RSA. Still to be decided"
and
"Jamie Codd booked to ride Jury Duty but might save him for the Irish national if Dounikos shows up here"



Kevloaf said:
It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. Everything everyone is saying looks true, so Elliott must be really confident he will get the trip which must be worth consideration?
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I haven't backed Dounikos YET... but It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. is lighting up with a million light bulbs

Can't Catch Me said:
Obviously GE has forgotten more than I know, so should go with his view. But I personally thought Monbeg Notorious would be the Gigg first string. By Milan out of a Presenting mare, he screams stamina to me. I know Dounikos beat him but that was MN's seasonal debut whereas Dounikos was race fit. MN was 2/1 that day and Dounikos 28/1 which suggests they thought MN a vastly superior animal at that time.

They've clearly both progressed as the season has gone on, but Id fancy MN strongly to reverse the form over 4m at Chelts myself. His win in the Thystes was really impressive.
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That just can't be the case anymore can it? I can't see Elliott beliving Monbeg Notorious has a better chance of winning this race than Dounikos

Scooby91 said:
Pretty sure monbeg notorious goes for the Irish national alongside mossback

To be fair they haven't said dounikos deffinately goes here yet.
Click to expand...

I think it is on record that Monbeg and Mossback NEED cut in the ground to be at their best, so while you're right and it hasn't been confirmed Dounikos comes here... it isn't because of any other runners.


It is a little bit like when Mullins wanted Don Poli in the 4 miler, believing he'd win that... and got made to put him in the RSA and obviously he did win that.... I'd LOVE that to be the case with DOunikos, as I've got 40/1 for the RSA and NOTHING for this race.

I am just overwhelmed by Elliott's bullishness. To even suggest the ride Jamie Codd is booked for, would be re-routed because of Dounikos also speaks volumes. Jury Dity is 3rd fav in this market generally and that has Presenting Percy in it. Clearly has a decent chance.
 
Kevloaf said:
After the quotes from Elliott tonight at the preview

"want to run Dounikos in the 4 miler but the owners wanted to run in the RSA. Still to be decided"
and
"Jamie Codd booked to ride Jury Duty but might save him for the Irish national if Dounikos shows up here"





I haven't backed Dounikos YET... but It's the persistence of Elliott to get him here for me that I'm finding appealing. is lighting up with a million light bulbs



That just can't be the case anymore can it? I can't see Elliott beliving Monbeg Notorious has a better chance of winning this race than Dounikos



I think it is on record that Monbeg and Mossback NEED cut in the ground to be at their best, so while you're right and it hasn't been confirmed Dounikos comes here... it isn't because of any other runners.


It is a little bit like when Mullins wanted Don Poli in the 4 miler, believing he'd win that... and got made to put him in the RSA and obviously he did win that.... I'd LOVE that to be the case with DOunikos, as I've got 40/1 for the RSA and NOTHING for this race.

I am just overwhelmed by Elliott's bullishness. To even suggest the ride Jamie Codd is booked for, would be re-routed because of Dounikos also speaks volumes. Jury Dity is 3rd fav in this market generally and that has Presenting Percy in it. Clearly has a decent chance.
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There's no doubt dounikos and al boum photo should go rsa and I believe both will.

Should be monalee 5/2
Alboum photo 4/1
Dounikos 9/2

10/1 bar
But I believe they have the beating of monalee in the rsa. And he's the only one to beat.


If monalee switched jlt
They should be 5/2 and 100/30 respectively. And thats generous imo.

I'm on both at huge prices and followed them both all the way down ew nrnb. I'm certain the market is all wrong.
 
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Scooby91 said:
There's no doubt dounikos and al boum photo should go rsa and I believe both will.

Should be monalee 5/2
Alboum photo 4/1
Dounikos 9/2

10/1 bar
But I believe they have the beating of monalee in the rsa. And he's the only one to beat.


If monalee switched jlt
They should be 5/2 and 100/30 respectively. And thats generous imo.

I'm on both at huge prices and followed them both all the way down ew nrnb. I'm certain the market is all wrong.
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Scooby,with that betting,are you thinking Presenting Percy does not go RSA ?
 
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