Champion Hurdle 2018

[Faugheen_Machine]

Faugheen and BD are miles clear of the rest in this race. I think you are just eating into your profit by backing all these other horses, unless you lay off nearer the time.

 

[Scooby91]

Faugheen and BD are miles clear of the rest in this race. I think you are just eating into your profit by backing all these other horses, unless you lay off nearer the time.

Id agree with that in this race.
Iv backed 1 cover. If faugheens was out. Who runs?
MIN 260.0 takes up about 0.3% of my book.

 

[Kevloaf]

Faugheen and BD are miles clear of the rest in this race. I think you are just eating into your profit by backing all these other horses, unless you lay off nearer the time.

Definitely planning to lay off nearer the time for stake back as a minimum....

If BVD or Faugheen were to be non runners, the latter especially, then I'd want these bigger prices. Feel like I can wait until about 5th March to adjust

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Hi chaps, back from the desert, looks like Faugheens race this to me, that's providing the recent run was all it seemed. I think BD is a good horse but not a great horse, Willie has been banging on about him all year and he rarely gets it wrong, I managed to get some of the 6's but I think the current 6/4 could look massive in March, providing all goes well, still just one opinion and it's still a horse race, but a hell of a banker for Tuesday Yankees to me, just need 3 more, Let's Dance once targets are confirmed I reckon

 

[cwright23]

Personally think it's a straight match between the top 2, with neither value at current odds.. right in saying the faugheen of 3 years ago was pretty much unbeatable but a lot of water has gone under the bridge, Annie power has fallen at the last in the mares, won the champion hurdle and given birth to a pup by Camelot.. he might not be as good as he once was and he's probably not as easy to keep sound.. 6/4 is skinny, and BD would be great value at 7/2 if the machine wasn't getting in the way

 

[Kevloaf]

Hi chaps, back from the desert, looks like Faugheens race this to me, that's providing the recent run was all it seemed. I think BD is a good horse but not a great horse, Willie has been banging on about him all year and he rarely gets it wrong, I managed to get some of the 6's but I think the current 6/4 could look massive in March, providing all goes well, still just one opinion and it's still a horse race, but a hell of a banker for Tuesday Yankees to me, just need 3 more, Let's Dance once targets are confirmed I reckon

Let's Dance is going to the Mares race by all comments so far.... but she bumps in to the ACTUAL banker of the day at 6/4 in Apple's Jade

Welcome back :encouragement:

 

[Kevloaf]

Personally think it's a straight match between the top 2, with neither value at current odds.. right in saying the faugheen of 3 years ago was pretty much unbeatable but a lot of water has gone under the bridge, Annie power has fallen at the last in the mares, won the champion hurdle and given birth to a pup by Camelot.. he might not be as good as he once was and he's probably not as easy to keep sound.. 6/4 is skinny, and BD would be great value at 7/2 if the machine wasn't getting in the way

If Faugheen doesn't make it the prices ranging between 5/1 and 7/2 that have been available for BVD are ridiculously good. Boring comment and obvious but if you HAD to back one now, it couldn't be Faugheen.

On the day, different matter.

 

[MrMcGoldrick]

Let's Dance is going to the Mares race by all comments so far.... but she bumps in to the ACTUAL banker of the day at 6/4 in Apple's Jade

Welcome back :encouragement:

Cheers Kev
Do you not think AJ could go Champ with the way that race has cut up, must be a consideration

 

[Scooby91]

Cheers Kev
Do you not think AJ could go Champ with the way that race has cut up, must be a consideration

Sorry to but in but 1% chance. She'd get beat convincingly.
75% mares
24% stayers.

 

[Kevloaf]

Cheers Kev
Do you not think AJ could go Champ with the way that race has cut up, must be a consideration

Sorry to but in but 1% chance. She'd get beat convincingly.
75% mares
24% stayers.

Somewhere between the two ...

Faugheen and BVD would have to not run for AJ to go here for me.

Stayers a possibility but only if AJ looks vastly better than she does over 2m4f.

She'll be in the most winnable race which is 99% likely to be the mares race.... IMO

 

[Kevloaf]

Melon is entered up for the International Hurdle .... shocked me a little although makes LOADS of sense to see where melon is vs MTOY and if he can't beat TNO I'll be expecting him in the Arkle haha

 

[doctorwu]

Kev,
I was most impressed with Melons debut this season. He looked a lot more powerful in his frame. He could be an interesting CH play this year. As I'm a stats man I won't be having faugheen, so that leaves BD and Melon.

 

[SAMCRO]

Could limini come over for the christmas hurdle, little mullins sighter on Buveur D'air

 

[Scooby91]

Could limini come over for the christmas hurdle, little mullins sighter on Buveur D'air

Would be a big ask and a tough race for her going in fresh. Poss cilaos emery, then his mark could go down a little if they were lucky. Not sure if Wicklow brave is being campaigned ober hurdles again id assume so, whether he's had a long enough break I don't know.

 

[SAMCRO]

Would be a big ask and a tough race for her going in fresh. Poss cilaos emery, then his mark could go down a little if they were lucky. Not sure if Wicklow brave is being campaigned ober hurdles again id assume so, whether he's had a long enough break I don't know.

True, Limini does seem to go well fresh though. Cilaos Emery is entered in a handicap at ascot on the 23rd.

 

[Scooby91]

True, Limini does seem to go well fresh though. Cilaos Emery is entered in a handicap at ascot on the 23rd.

I seen that . Whether he goes there or for a graded race I wouldn't have a clue.

 

[Kevloaf]

Kev,
I was most impressed with Melons debut this season. He looked a lot more powerful in his frame. He could be an interesting CH play this year. As I'm a stats man I won't be having faugheen, so that leaves BD and Melon.

I agree he is interesting. I thought when DDS was 8/1 3rd fav that Melon was a much better e/w play at 25/1 and I also backed win only at 16/1.

It would only take the fragile Faugheen to be ruled out in January and Melon could be a very clear 2nd fav and would be an each way bet to nothing... I think he'd end up going off on the day 3/1 if Ruby rode.

I'd need to see him perform really well in the international for me to think this is a 3 horse race, rather than a two horse race though.... but price is everything, and even at 14/1 now I can see an arguement for that being a backable each way price.

 

[Scooby91]

I agree he is interesting. I thought when DDS was 8/1 3rd fav that Melon was a much better e/w play at 25/1 and I also backed win only at 16/1.

It would only take the fragile Faugheen to be ruled out in January and Melon could be a very clear 2nd fav and would be an each way bet to nothing... I think he'd end up going off on the day 3/1 if Ruby rode.

I'd need to see him perform really well in the international for me to think this is a 3 horse race, rather than a two horse race though.... but price is everything, and even at 14/1 now I can see an arguement for that being a backable each way price.

One thing I have learned form the past is if faugheen was to be ruled out. Melon wouldn't be the 1st choice. Min/ yorkhill would be ruled in.

 

[Kevloaf]

One thing I have learned form the past is if faugheen was to be ruled out. Melon wouldn't be the 1st choice. Min/ yorkhill would be ruled in.

I am inclined to agree, but think it would depend on how late in the season it is..... I feel like Yorkhill/Min whoever, would need at least 1 spin over hurdles.
Also, if Melon comes on a tonne from his debut he might be there on merit?

It would stop me getting too serious now at 14/1 - but I also wouldn't stop anyone backing it as I can't be sure others would be re-routed?

 

[archie]

One thing I have learned form the past is if faugheen was to be ruled out. Melon wouldn't be the 1st choice. Min/ yorkhill would be ruled in.

Can't agree with that. In September they were very excited by Melon's prospects and last month they were delighted with his win.