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National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase

quevega said:
Patrick quite clearly said the horse needs two more runs ideally as he thinks the NH chase is a rough race like a handicap.
He pretty much said a run tomorrow then the Ten up Novices chase next.

Obviously it's a risky way of doing it, in case of mishaps. But they quite clearly have it in mind.


That's quite clearly as opposed to pretty clear.
Click to expand...

Didn't see this Q interesting.
 
quevega said:
Patrick quite clearly said the horse needs two more runs ideally as he thinks the NH chase is a rough race like a handicap.
He pretty much said a run tomorrow then the Ten up Novices chase next.

Obviously it's a risky way of doing it, in case of mishaps. But they quite clearly have it in mind.


That's quite clearly as opposed to pretty clear.
Click to expand...
+1 agreed. Clear plan on the road to running here.
 
quevega said:
Patrick quite clearly said the horse needs two more runs ideally as he thinks the NH chase is a rough race like a handicap.
He pretty much said a run tomorrow then the Ten up Novices chase next.

Obviously it's a risky way of doing it, in case of mishaps. But they quite clearly have it in mind.


That's quite clearly as opposed to pretty clear.
Click to expand...

Real squeeky bum time for any backers. Let's hope it pays off.
 
Lobos said:
Real squeeky bum time for any backers. Let's hope it pays off.
Click to expand...

Yep.
I also think Patrick's handicap comparison might not be correct for this years race as I'm still convinced that there'll be few 145+ horses that qualify.
If the number of runners are high then I can see several being around the low 130's.
Certainly lower than average years in terms of quality (especially the gap)
 
I think the top 2 for this race are going to go off very short.
Unless someone throws a grenade in.
 
quevega said:
Yep.
I also think Patrick's handicap comparison might not be correct for this years race as I'm still convinced that there'll be few 145+ horses that qualify.
If the number of runners are high then I can see several being around the low 130's.
Certainly lower than average years in terms of quality (especially the gap)
Click to expand...

Plus, if CS wins well at the weekend he could easily be RSA bound imo as Mullins doesn't have a clear horse for that currently. Very interesting. Could go either way.
 
A NRNB lump job on champagne classic for me, hopefully NRNB before the ten up.
Unless like i said previous, something better is on the horizon.

even though I have it backed already any race and have CS for this and RSA.
 
quevega said:
A NRNB lump job on champagne classic for me, hopefully NRNB before the ten up.
Unless like i said previous, something better is on the horizon.

even though I have it backed already any race and have CS for this and RSA.
Click to expand...

A good shout.
 
Yeah CS is a tricky one really, he could go to either regardless.

He has the form for this and is very unexposed.

Agree Q, it would be a high class renewal with these 2 involved. Set a huge standard.
 
quevega said:
Yep.
I also think Patrick's handicap comparison might not be correct for this years race as I'm still convinced that there'll be few 145+ horses that qualify.
If the number of runners are high then I can see several being around the low 130's.
Certainly lower than average years in terms of quality (especially the gap)
Click to expand...

I think the new qualification rules will put a lot of trainers off. Given the distance and how tough this race is I think they’ll struggle to attract more than 12 horses this Festival
 
Interesting market this, nothing but positive noises coming from Champagne Classic's corner but the price on Carefully Selected has been holding up all year, and although I may be reading too much into this Oli Bell gave CS (in this race) as his 2020 ante post bet of the year.
May well mean nothing but as a leading figure/face you'd expect him to know more than most...
 
quevega said:
I think the top 2 for this race are going to go off very short.
Unless someone throws a grenade in.
Click to expand...

The one that could leap up the page and shake up the top 2 is Early Doors.

Target isn't assured but I'm amazed he's still 33/1. There wouldn't be many in the race rated higher over hurdles, he won the MP off 145 - a race renowned for producing stayers. He's the most likely JP candidate at this stage and, what's more, he's actually qualified! Festival form of 3rd-1st, guaranteed a decent pilot, there's a lot to like at that price.
 
Viking Flagship said:
The one that could leap up the page and shake up the top 2 is Early Doors.

Target isn't assured but I'm amazed he's still 33/1. There wouldn't be many in the race rated higher over hurdles, he won the MP off 145 - a race renowned for producing stayers. He's the most likely JP candidate at this stage and, what's more, he's actually qualified! Festival form of 3rd-1st, guaranteed a decent pilot, there's a lot to like at that price.
Click to expand...

He's the value play without question.
 
Viking Flagship said:
The one that could leap up the page and shake up the top 2 is Early Doors.

Target isn't assured but I'm amazed he's still 33/1. There wouldn't be many in the race rated higher over hurdles, he won the MP off 145 - a race renowned for producing stayers. He's the most likely JP candidate at this stage and, what's more, he's actually qualified! Festival form of 3rd-1st, guaranteed a decent pilot, there's a lot to like at that price.
Click to expand...

Definitely, I think a lot are already on.
Just the worry they fancy his mark in a handicap.
But there is no other JP horse at the moment that looks more likely.
Unless he buys something that runs this weekend at warwick.
 
quevega said:
A NRNB lump job on champagne classic for me, hopefully NRNB before the ten up.
Unless like i said previous, something better is on the horizon.

even though I have it backed already any race and have CS for this and RSA.
Click to expand...

What price are you hoping for?
What price are you expecting?


Historically a great race for NRNB
 
Kevloaf said:
What price are you hoping for?
What price are you expecting?


Historically a great race for NRNB
Click to expand...

Be happy with 4-1.
Would put more on anything higher.
 
The fact Patrick said on the show he schooled CS at Punchestown at NYs leads me to think this is definitely the plan then.
 
jack1092 said:
The fact Patrick said on the show he schooled CS at Punchestown at NYs leads me to think this is definitely the plan then.
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From what Willie has said in RP, just getting a run into him today is more important than the distance. So I wouldn't expect too many fireworks from him today, he could get beat but experience is more important .
 
jack1092 said:
The fact Patrick said on the show he schooled CS at Punchestown at NYs leads me to think this is definitely the plan then.
Click to expand...

I would imagine Patrick would school most of willies horses at some point
This race has had it’s fair share of incidents and controversy recently
Willie and Patrick lost a good young horse in it last year
It may temper their enthusiasm and owners of good horses may shy away from it
I know they have shortened the distance but only four finished last year with a number of jockeys banned
The fact they are running carefully selected over 2.5 miles today when he has not yet qualified would be a concern
Especially if he runs well,could be an RSA horse
 
Yeah i know he'd school a fair few of them, but thought it was telling he was one of them tbh. I think he should be in an RSA myself
 
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