Doesn't that take overlook the chunks of improvement Willie finds in some of these French recruits?
Isn't the mockery Vauban made of his 101 mark at Ascot and his subsequent easy win off 114 supporting evidence that he's improved significantly more than 14lbs?
Why is he done improving? He's not 7 or 8, he's 5 so there's every chance he gets better/stronger and not regressing.
Is a NH rating of 160 a true reflection of Vauban's ability given he races far too keenly and doesn't always jump hurdles fluently?
Given he's flat bred wouldn't switching back to the flat with no obstacles unlock more of his upside?
Reasonable questions so I'll try to give reasonable answers.
The overall response is that there is no fixed rule for how an individual horse will improve and when it will stop improving. All the arguments and counter arguments put forward about Vauban are based on opinion rather than fact because we simply don't have enough facts to be definite. Had Vauban run on the flat as a 4yo it would be much clearer so we tend to side with our prejudices.
Individual responses would be:
1. Sure, Willie finds improvement in some French recruits. Likewise, he doesn't with others and they quietly exit stage left.
2. The handicapper thought his Ascot run was worth 114 and I wouldn't be arguing with that. I'd echo the earlier comment that you can't consider the listed race as 'being won off 114' because it was weight for age. Going by the direct form of the horses that he beat, you'd say that he didn't run to 114, mainly because he didn't have to. This view is endorsed by both RPRs and the handicapper.
3. He may be still improving but, again, different horses improve at different times and rates and assuming that he has another stone in the tank may just be wishful thinking. My own instinct is than early starting French breds are mature earlier that their UK and Irish counterparts which is why I'm uncertain how much more there will be to come.
4. I'm happy enough to take the handicapper's hurdle rating of 160. Last season, he ran 4 times behind State Man and each time they were separated by between 3 and 6 lengths with Vauban's RPR between 156 and 161. I think that's a large enough sample size to give 160 the thumbs up and, again, it's an open question about how much more he could find.
5. I think it's far too early to say that he's flat bred given how new Galiway is to the stallion ranks. Certainly, Willie has been busy at the store sales buying more of his progeny which would be an indication of how he's thinking.
Overall, there may well be 4 or 5lb extra in him in November but in a race like this that is not certain to be enough. It's mainly on price grounds that I think it's a poor bet at 4/1. Of course, most UK and Irish punters will latch on to him because it's local evidence. Maybe you have to have been there on race day to fully understand but it's a very patriotic/nationalistic occasion and most of the punters on course and around Australia will be going with the local favourites and doing so on the tote with all that implies. Even the ante post prices are quite a bit longer over there so it's not hard to assume that the tote odds on the day will be even better if you're a Vauban backer.
