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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

Kevloaf said:
:highly_amused:

What price would he be value at?
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I've left my bet on him at 16's so maybe 16's ?
But he's never really been good value in hindsight.
i'm going to give him another chance only because the bookies continue to over value him so I can't see the price drifting to a full loss. After he loses in Dublin,
If they duck Dublin and go for an easier option I might just cash anyway and take a very small profit.
 
Faugheen just won over 2m3 don't see any chance of him going to a NHC now. Didn't believe it would happen in the first place, but could see why some of you were chancing him. Look at this market on oddschecker, there's plenty with either question marks over their recent runs, or unlikely to show up. That's only looking at the top 10 or so.

If travelling, Faugheen should come here, no doubt about it.
 
quevega said:
I've left my bet on him at 16's so maybe 16's ?
But he's never really been good value in hindsight.
i'm going to give him another chance only because the bookies continue to over value him so I can't see the price drifting to a full loss. After he loses in Dublin,
If they duck Dublin and go for an easier option I might just cash anyway and take a very small profit.
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Yeah, I suppose technically because he's 'overvalued' it means he is value if you're on at the bigger price because you'd always beat SP?



I've still got loads on Samcro, not cashed anything out. My confidence in him has taken a bit of a knock from the defeat and it also took a bit of a knock when Fakir D'oudaries didn't perform particularly well next time either but I'm not in a rush to cash out either yet - like you, I'll see how the land lies when he's next declared for a race.
 
jack1092 said:
Faugheen just won over 2m3 don't see any chance of him going to a NHC now. Didn't believe it would happen in the first place, but could see why some of you were chancing him. Look at this market on oddschecker, there's plenty with either question marks over their recent runs, or unlikely to show up. That's only looking at the top 10 or so.

If travelling, Faugheen should come here, no doubt about it.
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You can never say never.:encouragement: There is a CHANCE Patrick retains the partnership and a CHANCE he'd be furthest clear on rating in the NHC so could look the easiest..... but Faugheen has only ever been a free bet or NRNB kind of bet in my opinion.


Speaking of which, he's 5/1 NRNB for the Marsh Chase, and 8/1 NRNB for the NH Chase.

I can see the merit of both to be honest....
 
Kevloaf said:
You can never say never.:encouragement: There is a CHANCE Patrick retains the partnership and a CHANCE he'd be furthest clear on rating in the NHC so could look the easiest..... but Faugheen has only ever been a free bet or NRNB kind of bet in my opinion.


Speaking of which, he's 5/1 NRNB for the Marsh Chase, and 8/1 NRNB for the NH Chase.

I can see the merit of both to be honest....
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Agree, NRNB given the horse's profile. I mean if they decided to go up in trip with Faugheen, surely they have to consider the RSA even before the NHC? Just can't see it myself, but i understand why some do.
 
I've mentioned this before, but Faugheen has to qualify for the NH chase.
And he will surely run at the Dublin festival, in which case he would have to run in the Irish Gold cup to qualify.
It would seem unlikely (beyond an early fall) that he would take in another race pre-festival.
 
quevega said:
I've mentioned this before, but Faugheen has to qualify for the NH chase.
And he will surely run at the Dublin festival, in which case he would have to run in the Irish Gold cup to qualify.
It would seem unlikely (beyond an early fall) that he would take in another race pre-festival.
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I don't think he will run there myself. I presume there's somewhere over 3miles between now + then he could go for?

Same applies with another forum NHC horse in Carefully Selected.
 
I genuinely don’t see the point of running faugheen in the marsh or rsa. It’s probably his last season at the top there’s nothing to gain by running in a marsh or rsa against progressive horses. To me you either run him in the nhc as it’s the easiest race to win or take a swing at the big one and go for the gold cup
 
jack1092 said:
I don't think he will run there myself. I presume there's somewhere over 3miles between now + then he could go for?

Same applies with another forum NHC horse in Carefully Selected.
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They've already said he will run next at Dublin.
It'd be a surprise if he doesn't.
But until he does we won't know.

Your presumption of somewhere else is a little hopeful. I think there's one race he could go for in Ireland and that's the ten up novices in middle of Feb at Navan (and that's a grade 2) so a downward step.

If they do start talking about missing dublin or going for the irish gold cup though, then the NH chase backers are in business.
 
quevega said:
They've already said he will run next at Dublin.
It'd be a surprise if he doesn't.
But until he does we won't know.

Your presumption of somewhere else is a little hopeful. I think there's one race he could go for in Ireland and that's the ten up novices in middle of Feb at Navan (and that's a grade 2) so a downward step.

If they do start talking about missing dublin or going for the irish gold cup though, then the NH chase backers are in business.
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I think i've gotten a little mixed up in what i'm saying. If they were to go NHC, i reckon they'd happily go elsewhere to get the qualification even if it's a lower grade of race.

I don't think he'll run again personally before the festival. Could be wrong as he's at an where if he's fit + well they might just run him..
 
jack1092 said:
I think i've gotten a little mixed up in what i'm saying. If they were to go NHC, i reckon they'd happily go elsewhere to get the qualification even if it's a lower grade of race.

I don't think he'll run again personally before the festival. Could be wrong as he's at an where if he's fit + well they might just run him..
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I doubt Mullins would step back in grade with him (with a penalty).

Carefully selected might run at Navan.

Allaho likely to run in Dublin also as he's still a novice and may as well contest grade ones now.
And probably Easy Game in the flogas also.

Unless ground goes all weird like last year
 
Kautostar said:
I genuinely don’t see the point of running faugheen in the marsh or rsa. It’s probably his last season at the top there’s nothing to gain by running in a marsh or rsa against progressive horses. To me you either run him in the nhc as it’s the easiest race to win or take a swing at the big one and go for the gold cup
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Surely the same appliess to the NH Chase, you're still taking on novices. I'd aim for the Gold Cup, a chance of being remembered as a true racing great.
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Surely the same appliess to the NH Chase, you're still taking on novices. I'd aim for the Gold Cup, a chance of being remembered as a true racing great.
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Yep.
I think a crack at the Irish Gold cup would be well worth a try.
You'll see where he's at, if he's decent enough he could finish in first four and qualify for NH chase (leaving them all novice chase options open), and if he wins it, then on to the Big one.
Not a lot to lose.
 
Kemboy - Townend
Bellshill - D Mullins
Faugheen - PW Mullins

someone let willie know
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
Surely the same appliess to the NH Chase, you're still taking on novices. I'd aim for the Gold Cup, a chance of being remembered as a true racing great.
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Only 10s NRNB for that - was one of the first things I looked for :)
Was hoping for a silly price.
 
Patrick should definitely keep the ride on Faugheen as far as I’m concerned wherever he goes. He seems to have a nack of getting a serious tune out of these older horses, particularly over a fence. The ride he gave UDS in the Punchestown Champion Chase was nothing short of sensational.
 
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