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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

Does Bapaume have a confirmed target yet? Would like to see him end up here. Jumped well last time. He had an entry a few days ago but didn’t take it up, assuming we’ll see him at the DRF?
 
Stormez said:
Does Bapaume have a confirmed target yet? Would like to see him end up here. Jumped well last time. He had an entry a few days ago but didn’t take it up, assuming we’ll see him at the DRF?
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Target a long way from being confirmed but it looks like they'll give him the chance to become an Arkle horse.
 
I think it would make more sense to come here with Bapaume. He’d be staying on nicely over the trip. Two nice runs at the fez too.
 
I agree, I won’t make any excuses for him but he put in a nice performance the next time. Running well at Cheltenham in the past is always a big plus for me though
 
I've just seen Ruby tearing into Samcro :hopelessness:

He properly isn't keen is he....

Don't remember him being that bullish when he was flapping around on Next Destination down the back straight.





Faugheen is gonna wallop him.




I'm going to end up with loads on Faugheen I can just sense it.
 
Stormy Antarctic said:
I think it would make more sense to come here with Bapaume. He’d be staying on nicely over the trip. Two nice runs at the fez too.
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A strongly run Arkle would be ideal. He has the residual class and would be one of the highest rated hurdlers in the race. In fact he would maybe be the highest!
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
A strongly run Arkle would be ideal. He has the residual class and would be one of the highest rated hurdlers in the race. In fact he would maybe be the highest!
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He’s 20/1 for both this and t’other. He’s 16s any race with Hills. I don’t think they’ll have decided where to go yet. I don’t build a book like most of you guys but like to have a few antepost. He’ll be one of them I’m sure
 
Faugheen_Machine said:
A strongly run Arkle would be ideal. He has the residual class and would be one of the highest rated hurdlers in the race. In fact he would maybe be the highest!
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That rating wouldnt have been achieved over 2m though, for me hes one paced, and has no change of gear.
 
Scooby91 said:
That rating wouldnt have been achieved over 2m though, for me hes one paced, and has no change of gear.
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He will see out the Arkle trip really well. I don't necessarily think he will need a change of gear, just outstay them up the hill.

That highest rated hurdler stat used to be banded around everywhere. Would he be the highest rated of those in the betting? Can't be far off.
 
Has anyone heard any news recently on Windsor Avenue?

His last run seemed too bad to be true and surely if connections feel that way the JLT is still firmly on their mind. He’s 50/1 didn’t realise there was such a reaction after his defeat to Sam Spinner. Also 50/1 RSA but I’d probably prefer to back for this.
 
I think 50/1 is a ridiculously generous price for him in the JLT, which is the race he should run in anyway. Just want Ellison to confirm it, and then I’ll nibble more, as already have had a few bites.
 
I completely agree regarding the price and imo there had to be an issue post race for him to be walloped that far, although can’t remember if anything was mentioned?

I may have a stab at that price, he’s as big a price as he has ever been after one bad run after 2 very taking performances.
 
You'd probably be able to get on after the comments.... if any come...

He's not high profile enough for bookies to latch on to immediately...


50/1 is a big price if he bounced back.... my original opinion was that his best chance would be a handicap though :devilish:




Love "walloped" as a verb too

[h=1]wallop[/h]
[ wol-uhp ]


<section class="entry-headword css-0 e1rg2mtf0" id="top-definitions-section">
</section>[h=3]verb[/h]1. to beat soundly; thrash.
 
Craigy14 said:
I completely agree regarding the price and imo there had to be an issue post race for him to be walloped that far, although can’t remember if anything was mentioned?

I may have a stab at that price, he’s as big a price as he has ever been after one bad run after 2 very taking performances.
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Pretty sure they said he scoped badly, but he may well have not stayed either. From his earlier novice chases, a stiff 2m 5f would be perfect in my opinion.
 
Kevloaf said:
You'd probably be able to get on after the comments.... if any come...

He's not high profile enough for bookies to latch on to immediately...


50/1 is a big price if he bounced back.... my original opinion was that his best chance would be a handicap though :devilish:




Love "walloped" as a verb too

[h=1]wallop[/h]
[ wol-uhp ]


<section class="entry-headword css-0 e1rg2mtf0" id="top-definitions-section">
</section>[h=3]verb[/h]1. to beat soundly; thrash.
Click to expand...

Aye might be worth keeping 365 open in running as they might not be to quick to suspend him, as you say given he’s probably not high profile enough for them to worry about.

If he puts up another good performance in a graded race handicaps may be out the question, definitely worth keeping an eye on for sure.
 
Craigy14 said:
Has anyone heard any news recently on Windsor Avenue?

His last run seemed too bad to be true and surely if connections feel that way the JLT is still firmly on their mind. He’s 50/1 didn’t realise there was such a reaction after his defeat to Sam Spinner. Also 50/1 RSA but I’d probably prefer to back for this.
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Not heard anything but I really like him think he very talented , if he was trained by a Nicholls or a Henderson id say he be a lot shorter in betting.
 
PP are now shorter for Melon for the Marsh Chase than they are for him for the Arkle.

They're joint biggest price Arkle at 14/1

Shortest for the Arkle at 12/1


Patrick Mullins sais he cannot wait to see him over 2 and a half miles over fences on RTC today.

He's going for the JP Moriarty Chase next (Flogas) over 2m5f



In terms of solid rivals in the Marsh Chase who do we have?

Faugheen is fav 9/1 - fair enough. Better horse. Fragile though and target not certain.

Samcro 12/1 - they weren't scared to take him on previously, and on the evidence of Samcro finishing out his races maybe the complete dog Melon can even outstay him

Fakir D'oudaries 14/1 - Already met, with the weight swing they'd be closer and you can definitely make the case for Melon

Mister Fisher 14/1 - I like him but Cheltenham form alone makes Melon more appeaking at 16/1 than him at 14/1 right?

Champ is 14/1 - trainer says he goes RSA

Laurina 14/1 - Bled LTO, might not even run?

Black Op 14/1 - Don't know where he'd run - likeable but not really that scary an opponent.

Slate House goes RSA
Baupaume apparently goes Arkle - same for Brewin'upastorm we guess.
BOD 20/1 won't run....
Reserve Tank 20/1 but he's got holes.







Can kick him out of the 3, at 16/1?

Decent enough bet, if the targets right?

Regarding bets...... help me here.... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15338-Kevloaf-Cheltenham-2020-Ante-Post-Diary/page33

It's the post under the eurovision song ;)
 
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