Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

[Lobos]

Still hoping Laurina rocks up here as looks weaker race now. Depends on whether she gets back in time and fit and where Faugheen ends up.

 

[Quevega]

Still hoping Laurina rocks up here as looks weaker race now. Depends on whether she gets back in time and fit and where Faugheen ends up.

Yep, 14's might look massive come the day.

 

[Kevloaf]

Probably be a fair price nrnb

 

[Big Chac]

CC is pencilled in for the National Hunt.

Very small chance they give BOD and Samcro a swap and try them over shorter/longer distances respectively. At this stage they'll have to try and do something to get Samcro firing.

At the moment I think CC is going for the national hunt but if they can’t get Samcro back then they tend to favour this and the RSA over the 4 miler.....I can see them brining one of their better one’s here if that happens. It’s just something I’m keeping in mind

I do hope Samcro gets back to his best though.

 

[Pendil]

As a Samcro and angles breath fan, I’m left with nothing in the race but I can’t help but think there must be some value at bigger prices but I can t seem to find it lol.
Any ideas, itchy feet, allaho, master tommytucker, birchdale.....
Also if Samcro doesn’t come here who do giggy route here instead? Champagne classic?

Against perceived wisdom I have backed BOD 22/1 for this and CC 33/1 for the RSA based on their run over Christmas. I am leaving Samcro out of the equation for now

 

[Scooby91]

CC is pencilled in for the National Hunt.

Very small chance they give BOD and Samcro a swap and try them over shorter/longer distances respectively. At this stage they'll have to try and do something to get Samcro firing.

Hardly desperate measures. He was beaten fair and square by a better horse on the day. Any horse in this market would have had the same done to them. Some of the horses being mentioned and backed on here would have been tailed off behind the pair.

Many times faugheen has done the same and put In a performance like that earlier season on heavy, then bombed next time.

I wouldn't listen to o'Leary literally, he loves to play the game
Hes well aware he was beaten fair and square, but also that not all hope is lost.

If they match up again, in reasonable conditions, I wouldnt be suprised if its overturned. But If faugheen does the same again, then he should be a hell of alot shorter than he is now. As the likes of mister Fisher, reserve tank, itchy feet, wouldnt have got near samcro, let alone faugheen last time.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Hardly desperate measures. He was beaten fair and square by a better horse on the day. Any horse in this market would have had the same done to them. Some of the horses being mentioned and backed on here would have been tailed off behind the pair.

Many times faugheen has done the same and put In a performance like that earlier season on heavy, then bombed next time.

I wouldn't listen to o'Leary literally, he loves to play the game
Hes well aware he was beaten fair and square, but also that not all hope is lost.

If they match up again, in reasonable conditions, I wouldnt be suprised if its overturned. But If faugheen does the same again, then he should be a hell of alot shorter than he is now. As the likes of mister Fisher, reserve tank, itchy feet, wouldnt have got near samcro, let alone faugheen last time.

It does feel like there has been a bit of an over reaction both by the likes of O'Leary and the bookies. While it's hard to be overly enthused by the way Samcro was beaten, there currently looks to be so little top quality opposition (especially with Angel's Breath out for the season and Laurina lto) in this particular race that I was surprised he was pushed out as big as 12s

 

[The Don]

Samcro needs a trip... proper bridle horse. Won his point and should be aimed at the RSA

 

[Quevega]

Samcro clearly has a problem, either mental or physical or both (but more likely mental)

My ears pricked up when Ruby Walsh was at pains to talk about how he pulled up so quickly after the line in his beginners chase win, basically saying he wanted the horse to be hard to pull up.

Over in Ireland, there has clearly been talk about this horse, and whilst they eventually found something last season, it was clear they were not convinced themselves, and the not scoping right thing is most likely fibs, as they said nothing of the sort last year and he was fit as a flea on many occasions.

He has consistently travelled well and not seen out his race now for the last few races, even though he has been beaten by very good horses once or twice too.

It's a big leap of faith for this horse to rock back up, and whilst Faugheen's performance could have been one of his special ones, it might not have been either.

I have him at 16's and am very close to bailing. I just cannot visualise him beating a good level of opposition at cheltenham (even a weaker division)

I'd like to see it, but Gordon must be close to running out of ideas and patience now. He has other horses to spend time on.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I also think all that is fair Q and duly noted you were right to question the way he sees out his races, when I thought it was probably more down to the trip last season. I have a sneaky suspicion if I come back as a racehorse I would be quite similar to Samcro...Haha....think I just need to see him beat one more time in the manner he was last time and I'll be fully on board with you

 

[Quevega]

I also think all that is fair Q and duly noted you were right to question the way he sees out his races, when I thought it was probably more down to the trip last season. I have a sneaky suspicion if I come back as a racehorse I would be quite similar to Samcro...Haha....think I just need to see him beat one more time in the manner he was last time and I'll be fully on board with you

If you're the type that gives up when it starts hurting you'd be one step ahead of me.
I'd weigh it up beforehand and not even set off.

 

[JackieMoon33]

If you're the type that gives up when it starts hurting you'd be one step ahead of me.
I'd weigh it up beforehand and not even set off.

I’d be unraced, retired to stud.

 

[Big Chac]

Hardly desperate measures. He was beaten fair and square by a better horse on the day. Any horse in this market would have had the same done to them. Some of the horses being mentioned and backed on here would have been tailed off behind the pair.

Many times faugheen has done the same and put In a performance like that earlier season on heavy, then bombed next time.

I wouldn't listen to o'Leary literally, he loves to play the game
Hes well aware he was beaten fair and square, but also that not all hope is lost.

If they match up again, in reasonable conditions, I wouldnt be suprised if its overturned. But If faugheen does the same again, then he should be a hell of alot shorter than he is now. As the likes of mister Fisher, reserve tank, itchy feet, wouldnt have got near samcro, let alone faugheen last time.

I get that but would you still be confident that he would have beat fakir if he stood up....I was before hand but now I’m not so sure and I don’t see fakir as a world beater albeit he is a very good horse.

 

[Pendil]

I’d be unraced, retired to stud.

Ouch gelding, but good luck

 

[Altior]

In my opinion there's clearly something up with the horse. The nebuliser constantly, the special stable, the wind operation, the scoping badly. I fail to write off Samcro because he's one of my favourite horses and at times has looked every bit a superstar but they are starting to become memories rather than flashbacks.

 

[The King Pimm]

Hopefully we’ll find out in March if Samcro and Faugheen make the Festival and line up in this race but I do think the 3 British horses you mentioned will be near the front come the last furlong. Faugheen was incredibly impressive but GBB and MF are on an upward curve and better than expected. I’d be gutted if they turned out to be this seasons Saint Calvados and Lalor as they have looked very good so far
(I know they were Arkle horses but can’t think of any British JLT horses from last season or the season that were that hyped and bombed)

 

[Scooby91]

I get that but would you still be confident that he would have beat fakir if he stood up....I was before hand but now I’m not so sure and I don’t see fakir as a world beater albeit he is a very good horse.

I dont see the 2 races as alike myself. I think theres a big difference in the performance of what faugheen put up on the day, of that what fakir put up.

I cant relate the 2 like the majority. I just think he was beaten fair and square by a brilliant faugheen performance.

Put him against an itchy feet, a mister fisher, and imo he wouldn't even come off the bridle, I dont see it as him cutting out, and consequently would have done the same against fakir. I see it as a straight up loss. Against a performance that nothing else could put up. Maybe not even faugheen again next time.

 

[Quevega]

I dont see the 2 races as alike myself. I think theres a big difference in the performance of what faugheen put up on the day, of that what fakir put up.

I cant relate the 2 like the majority. I just think he was beaten fair and square by a brilliant faugheen performance.

Put him against an itchy feet, a mister fisher, and imo he wouldn't even come off the bridle, I dont see it as him cutting out, and consequently would have done the same against fakir. I see it as a straight up loss. Against a performance that nothing else could put up. Maybe not even faugheen again next time.

I'd be happy to go along with that myself.
But I'd also have to take his losses last season as straight up losses, which puts him as a decent high 150's horse and not looking like improving much.
Faugheen cannot be improving, and even on his best going day he cannot be capable of running at the peak of his powers.
Although in novice chase company he is clearly down in class.

 

[Scooby91]

I'd be happy to go along with that myself.
But I'd also have to take his losses last season as straight up losses, which puts him as a decent high 150's horse and not looking like improving much.
Faugheen cannot be improving, and even on his best going day he cannot be capable of running at the peak of his powers.
Although in novice chase company he is clearly down in class.

I wouldnt disagree, I had no excuse for samcro last year myself. He was beaten fair and square by a very good horse in BD.
In the same way he was just beaten by faugheen.

He then disappointed and ran even worse ina 2m hurdle back in open company. This time he has the option of finding a lesser race, either way the proof will be in his next step back up.

If they go for the likes of the drinmore, bar faugheen managing to do the same ( which his previous says he dosent back up a performance like that, but I'll give the benefit of doubt) I'd be expecting samcro to beat the rest of the field. Which will likely include some well fancied horses, ie possibly allaho, fakit, easy game, battleoverdoyen, .......

 

[Humble Pie]

I wouldnt disagree, I had no excuse for samcro last year myself. He was beaten fair and square by a very good horse in BD.
In the same way he was just beaten by faugheen.

He then disappointed and ran even worse ina 2m hurdle back in open company. This time he has the option of finding a lesser race, either way the proof will be in his next step back up.

If they go for the likes of the drinmore, bar faugheen managing to do the same ( which his previous says he dosent back up a performance like that, but I'll give the benefit of doubt) I'd be expecting samcro to beat the rest of the field. Which will likely include some well fancied horses, ie possibly allaho, fakit, easy game, battleoverdoyen, .......

Really want to see Samcro back to the best he can be .
We don’t know what that is now do we?
Supposition , positivity and doubts

Don’t think I “ expect “ anything tbh Scooby , you’re braver and more optimistic than me at this stage .

The jury as they say “ is out” atm IMO