Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

[Middle_Of_March]

PP are now shorter for Melon for the Marsh Chase than they are for him for the Arkle.

They're joint biggest price Arkle at 14/1

Shortest for the Arkle at 12/1


Patrick Mullins sais he cannot wait to see him over 2 and a half miles over fences on RTC today.

He's going for the JP Moriarty Chase next (Flogas) over 2m5f



In terms of solid rivals in the Marsh Chase who do we have?

Faugheen is fav 9/1 - fair enough. Better horse. Fragile though and target not certain.

Samcro 12/1 - they weren't scared to take him on previously, and on the evidence of Samcro finishing out his races maybe the complete dog Melon can even outstay him

Fakir D'oudaries 14/1 - Already met, with the weight swing they'd be closer and you can definitely make the case for Melon

Mister Fisher 14/1 - I like him but Cheltenham form alone makes Melon more appeaking at 16/1 than him at 14/1 right?

Champ is 14/1 - trainer says he goes RSA

Laurina 14/1 - Bled LTO, might not even run?

Black Op 14/1 - Don't know where he'd run - likeable but not really that scary an opponent.

Slate House goes RSA
Baupaume apparently goes Arkle - same for Brewin'upastorm we guess.
BOD 20/1 won't run....
Reserve Tank 20/1 but he's got holes.







Can kick him out of the 3, at 16/1?

Decent enough bet, if the targets right?

Regarding bets...... help me here.... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15338-Kevloaf-Cheltenham-2020-Ante-Post-Diary/page33

It's the post under the eurovision song

I haven’t actually backed him yet but I do quite like the look of Mister Fisher for this.

He impressed me last time over c & d.

Already on Samcro. Realistically, there’s no way I won’t allow myself to have a few quid on Faugheen either.

Edit - As for melon, he’s never been one for me. I can’t take to the horse. His win percentage is appalling for a horse with as much talk about him as he gets.

 

[Scooby91]

PP are now shorter for Melon for the Marsh Chase than they are for him for the Arkle.

They're joint biggest price Arkle at 14/1

Shortest for the Arkle at 12/1


Patrick Mullins sais he cannot wait to see him over 2 and a half miles over fences on RTC today.

He's going for the JP Moriarty Chase next (Flogas) over 2m5f



In terms of solid rivals in the Marsh Chase who do we have?

Faugheen is fav 9/1 - fair enough. Better horse. Fragile though and target not certain.

Samcro 12/1 - they weren't scared to take him on previously, and on the evidence of Samcro finishing out his races maybe the complete dog Melon can even outstay him

Fakir D'oudaries 14/1 - Already met, with the weight swing they'd be closer and you can definitely make the case for Melon

Mister Fisher 14/1 - I like him but Cheltenham form alone makes Melon more appeaking at 16/1 than him at 14/1 right?

Champ is 14/1 - trainer says he goes RSA

Laurina 14/1 - Bled LTO, might not even run?

Black Op 14/1 - Don't know where he'd run - likeable but not really that scary an opponent.

Slate House goes RSA
Baupaume apparently goes Arkle - same for Brewin'upastorm we guess.
BOD 20/1 won't run....
Reserve Tank 20/1 but he's got holes.







Can kick him out of the 3, at 16/1?

Decent enough bet, if the targets right?

Regarding bets...... help me here.... http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?15338-Kevloaf-Cheltenham-2020-Ante-Post-Diary/page33

It's the post under the eurovision song

I dont mind where he goes particularly. But it's easy for Patrick to have an educated idea BEFORE there next runs.


Through process of elimination. Imo bapaume is one paced, he has no change of gear at all, and imo would get swamped in the arkle. If notebook and fakir are actually that good, they should go past him like hes not there in the irish arkle. Once it gets to the business end of the race.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

PP are now shorter for Melon for the Marsh Chase than they are for him for the Arkle.

They're joint biggest price Arkle at 14/1

Shortest for the Arkle at 12/1


Patrick Mullins sais he cannot wait to see him over 2 and a half miles over fences on RTC today.

He's going for the JP Moriarty Chase next (Flogas) over 2m5f



In terms of solid rivals in the Marsh Chase who do we have?

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Wish I had gone with my initial instinct about him needing a trip, I knew he would, just cast doubts after listening to a couple on here. Luckily I still went 'any race' and just cashed the Arkle bets today to go in on him for this race.

 

[The King Pimm]

I still think Good Boy Bobby is overpriced for this race. Not sure if he will run due to the owners dislike of Cheltenham but he’s has all the skills to win this and improving with every race

 

[Quevega]

Wish I had gone with my initial instinct about him needing a trip, I knew he would, just cast doubts after listening to a couple on here. Luckily I still went 'any race' and just cashed the Arkle bets today to go in on him for this race.

And if he flops in the Flogas ??
Which I'd say is long odds on.
And Bapaume or Cash Back disappoint in the Irish arkle
Which I'd say is also long odds on (that one of them does)

Where to then ?
Even though I've backed for both, I still think he'll end up in the arkle.

All gone quiet on Laurina.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

And if he flops in the Flogas ??
Which I'd say is long odds on.
And Bapaume or Cash Back disappoint in the Irish arkle
Which I'd say is also long odds on (that one of them does)

Where to then ?
Even though I've backed for both, I still think he'll end up in the arkle.

All gone quiet on Laurina.

There are obviously these scenarios. I don't think he'll flop in the Flogas, but at the same time I don't think he'll probably win it, if he does then he'll be ridiculously short for the JLT I suspect.

Arkle is still an option, but more my point that I wish I had stuck to my guns, glad I went 'any race' on the most part anyway.

Laurina was a profitable cash out and the word about her going chasing wasn't wrong, but based on that last performance she can't win either. If the excuse of her bleeding is correct then she could still go to the JLT with a fair chance. I am waiting on an entry for her but now I think we are just as likely to see her back over hurdles as we are fences tbh.

 

[Scooby91]

I'd think melon will more likely go for the irish arkle and step up if hes soundly beaten.

Patrick and willie wouldnt always be on the same page. And theres very few novice chasers whose target is nailed on at this stage.

 

[Quevega]

I'd think melon will more likely go for the irish arkle and step up if hes soundly beaten.

Patrick and willie wouldnt always be on the same page. And theres very few novice chasers whose target is nailed on at this stage.

I think this also.
After willie's comments when Melon won the last day, I'd say Irish arkle makes more sense and then change tack if required.

 

[Quevega]

Basically I think he'll probably run shit in Dublin and end up in the opposite race distance as a result

 

[Lobos]

Melon will run in Arkle. He must be well clear of anything else on his 2m hurdles rating and has proven grade 1 form at Cheltenham in March. His win last time was plenty good enough and didn't suggest at all that a step up in trip was required. He's never won beyond 2m from memory? so why try him now? Arkle it is.

 

[charlie]

Melon will run in Arkle. He must be well clear of anything else on his 2m hurdles rating and has proven grade 1 form at Cheltenham in March. His win last time was plenty good enough and didn't suggest at all that a step up in trip was required. He's never won beyond 2m from memory? so why try him now? Arkle it is.

How many times do you have to be certain, then wrong, to abandon being certain anymore?

For what it's worth I hope your bang on but these definitive statements are a bit yawn, even more so when it was only yesterday Patrick said they'd be going up in trip.

 

[Silverbirch]

Black op has got to be a good e/w for this? Although odds are poor. And also might not go here but I don't see him being destroyed, a faller and he's got a chance

 

[Quevega]

Black op has got to be a good e/w for this? Although odds are poor. And also might not go here but I don't see him being destroyed, a faller and he's got a chance

I think he's probably a bit better than relying on fallers myself, especially at this trip.
But to win, he would need a few things go his way for sure.
Positive rides in races like these can put pressure on others, and some jockeys will panic if their horses rhythm isn't great.
I think he'd be one to benefit from front running.
I can't see many in this (front runners), unless Fakir runs.
Faugheen might ?

 

[AnFiieLD.]

Melon will run in Arkle. He must be well clear of anything else on his 2m hurdles rating and has proven grade 1 form at Cheltenham in March. His win last time was plenty good enough and didn't suggest at all that a step up in trip was required. He's never won beyond 2m from memory? so why try him now? Arkle it is.

So you think Patrick and also Ruby saying he’s likely to benefit from a step up in trip in the last week or so are wrong? I don’t think Melon will run in this unless Bapaume runs an absolute stinker in Dublin. Cash Back a guaranteed runner.

 

[jack1092]

Wish I had gone with my initial instinct about him needing a trip, I knew he would, just cast doubts after listening to a couple on here. Luckily I still went 'any race' and just cashed the Arkle bets today to go in on him for this race.

Taking Patrick's word as gospel wouldn't be advised. It's like taking Rubys from the same show. Willie doesn't make his mind up on the 09/1/2020. I know you know this, but i wouldn't have been making decisions on those quotes.

 

[Viking Flagship]

Black op has got to be a good e/w for this? Although odds are poor. And also might not go here but I don't see him being destroyed, a faller and he's got a chance

I backed him for this ages ago and sort of keep forgetting I have. I think that means I'm not overly excited by him - he's just solid without looking like the MOST likely winner. I think it reminds me a bit of how I felt when I had Willoughby Court backed for this race from a really early stage in the season. I was never that adamant he was going to win the race but the more time went on, and the more fickle everything else looked, the more favourable he started to look. By the time he got pulled through injury I was absolutely convinced he was the winner in waiting.

 

[Scooby91]

Black op has got to be a good e/w for this? Although odds are poor. And also might not go here but I don't see him being destroyed, a faller and he's got a chance

Pretty sure they want to go RSA

 

[Lobos]

So you think Patrick and also Ruby saying he’s likely to benefit from a step up in trip in the last week or so are wrong? I don’t think Melon will run in this unless Bapaume runs an absolute stinker in Dublin. Cash Back a guaranteed runner.

Rather take the trainer's view (and mine) that he is Arkle bound. I've been right more often than wrong during my time which is why I'm still here fighting.

 

[Lobos]

How many times do you have to be certain, then wrong, to abandon being certain anymore?

For what it's worth I hope your bang on but these definitive statements are a bit yawn, even more so when it was only yesterday Patrick said they'd be going up in trip.

How many times have I been wrong though? Enlighten me please.

 

[Silverbirch]

Pretty sure they want to go RSA

Yeah that's the impression I get but, the RSA looks a much tougher test. Compare it to this, imo he has an outside chance here but a very slim chance in the RSA. Hopefully they can see this race is wide open