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Marsh Novices Chase 2020 (was JLT)

I think Samcro would've won, but i don't think he'd have cantered all over Fakir and beaten him 8Ls+.

The weak finishing business is definitely something to consider, yes he wasn't right last year and Elliot thinks he's got him back especially now his scopes are A1. However, the fact he's on a nebuliser shows theres a worry re bleeding or wind. Which is obviously important when a horse is finishing off his race. Ruby pointed out he doesn't necessarily run through the line either.
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
I’ll chip in with what I usually say at this point in the conversation which is the biggest reason for me that Samcro didn’t see out his races last season is that he is not a 2 miler. Whilst you couldn’t rule him out staying further the middle distance looks perfect for him and is the reason I (like many others) didn’t want a penny on him for the Arkle this season
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I don't think Samcro would've finished his race off over 2m4 or 3miles last year either.
 
Has there been any news re City Island? I am not too worried we haven't seen him yet. Martin Brassil made a point of campaigning him gently last year which worked a treat (he said exactly this in an interview after beating Champ) so I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he was campaigned in a similar way this year.
 
jack1092 said:
I don't think Samcro would've finished his race off over 2m4 or 3miles last year either.
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Did it well enough the season before that in Novice company, and we’ll get to find out this season. Just hope he is fine after his fall and fingers crossed we should get a good run for our money in the JLT.
 
charlie said:
Has there been any news re City Island? I am not too worried we haven't seen him yet. Martin Brassil made a point of campaigning him gently last year which worked a treat (he said exactly this in an interview after beating Champ) so I wouldn't be one bit surprised if he was campaigned in a similar way this year.
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Update in RP from 24th November

City Island
6g Court Cave - Victorine
Sean & Bernardine Mulryan
1D111-6
RPR 155h OR 152h
He did very well as a novice hurdler last season and had his biggest win at the Cheltenham Festival when he beat Champ in the Ballymore, which his owners sponsor. He's going over fences and will probably start off around Christmas. He handles soft ground but wouldn't want it too testing. We're looking forward to getting him started.
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Update in RP from 24th November

City Island
6g Court Cave - Victorine
Sean & Bernardine Mulryan
1D111-6
RPR 155h OR 152h
He did very well as a novice hurdler last season and had his biggest win at the Cheltenham Festival when he beat Champ in the Ballymore, which his owners sponsor. He's going over fences and will probably start off around Christmas. He handles soft ground but wouldn't want it too testing. We're looking forward to getting him started.
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Thanks JackieMoon, appreciated
 
Rhinestone_Cowboy said:
Did it well enough the season before that in Novice company, and we’ll get to find out this season. Just hope he is fine after his fall and fingers crossed we should get a good run for our money in the JLT.
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He did, my point is if Elliots to be believe, he wasn't right at all last year and therefore finishing his races off was an issue- not the trip. For all you might be right he could be better over 2m4+, he wasn't seeing races out.
 
jack1092 said:
He did, my point is if Elliots to be believe, he wasn't right at all last year and therefore finishing his races off was an issue- not the trip. For all you might be right he could be better over 2m4+, he wasn't seeing races out.
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I’m with you, so I’d throw out there that this was Elliot trying to cover himself making the wrong decision with the horse last year. Similar to EA I think they thought he was such a superstar they could do anything they wanted with him, but that just wasn’t the case. Anyway we’ll get to find out one way or another soon enough. I’ll agree there’s just enough doubt not to be steaming in at 6s
 
JackieMoon33 said:
Update in RP from 24th November

City Island
6g Court Cave - Victorine
Sean & Bernardine Mulryan
1D111-6
RPR 155h OR 152h
He did very well as a novice hurdler last season and had his biggest win at the Cheltenham Festival when he beat Champ in the Ballymore, which his owners sponsor. He's going over fences and will probably start off around Christmas. He handles soft ground but wouldn't want it too testing. We're looking forward to getting him started.
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Wish I had the fainest inkling on what trip they are thinking of. Very keen to get him onside as his form looks top class. But 10/1 any race just isn't juicy enough when he's 16's / 20's / 25's for the 3 Novice Chases.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
Wish I had the fainest inkling on what trip they are thinking of. Very keen to get him onside as his form looks top class. But 10/1 any race just isn't juicy enough when he's 16's / 20's / 25's for the 3 Novice Chases.
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I would think the intermediate trip (JLT) still but one of his post race comments does mention three miles...

9Feb19 Naas (19Gd, RPR 145)
It was an ideal race for City Island to run in before he goes over. The owners are mad to have a runner in their own race and thankfully we might have fallen on one. It's been the plan since Galway, we found a couple of races to fit in. He jumps very well and it was a nice opportunity to find. Mark (Walsh) says he'll get three miles a bit later on, so he should have no problem with the 2m5f at Cheltenham - Martin Brassil, trainer.
 
Samcro probably would have won if he stayed on his feet but not definitely; I’d like to see him winning a race by battling hard to the line before Cheltenham
 
JackieMoon33 said:
I would think the intermediate trip (JLT) still but one of his post race comments does mention three miles...

9Feb19 Naas (19Gd, RPR 145)
It was an ideal race for City Island to run in before he goes over. The owners are mad to have a runner in their own race and thankfully we might have fallen on one. It's been the plan since Galway, we found a couple of races to fit in. He jumps very well and it was a nice opportunity to find. Mark (Walsh) says he'll get three miles a bit later on, so he should have no problem with the 2m5f at Cheltenham - Martin Brassil, trainer.
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Thanks Jackie. Certainly think the Arkle is unlikely with him, but no strong feeling between the JLT or RSA
 
Just re-watched the Drinmore, as I only got the last half of the race yesterday as was out shopping, much to my disappointment.

Fakir took them along at a fair clip, that would have done Samcro the world of good for his jumping, and in the main, despite being a little slow at some, he took the majority pretty well.

Fakir is a very quick horse, the Arkle will be no problem for him, and I do believe Samcro would have given him a beating yesterday with an 8lb allowance, so why take him on again with no allowance, would make no sense to me.

As above, I feel Samcro wins that if he stays up yesterday, Jack Kennedy's reaction said it all for me, he probably felt he had a whole heap of horse underneath him at the time.

Lastly, what price is Samcro if he had stayed up and won yesterday, 2/1, possibly 5/2, 6's is bloody lovely price IMO, as I think he is definitely back to his best.
 
I'm surprised how many on twitter seem to think Fakir still would have won.

I thought Samcro was going to leave him for dead myself. 6/1 is definitely fair enough at this stage when you look at some other horses in other markets and what they've achieved.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'm surprised how many on twitter seem to think Fakir still would have won.

I thought Samcro was going to leave him for dead myself. 6/1 is definitely fair enough at this stage when you look at some other horses in other markets and what they've achieved.
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I'm surprised your surprised. Twitter is generally a clueless wasteland of recency bias with a mixture of poor knowledge, with the odd dash of brilliant information.
 
Can't Catch Me said:
I'm surprised how many on twitter seem to think Fakir still would have won.

I thought Samcro was going to leave him for dead myself. 6/1 is definitely fair enough at this stage when you look at some other horses in other markets and what they've achieved.
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2 runs and 2 wins into his Ballymore season he was around 5/2 I think, it's just a happy convenience (provided he suffered no issues from it), that he fell and the price remains as nice as it does IMO.
 
charlie said:
I'm surprised your surprised. Twitter is generally a clueless wasteland of recency bias with a mixture of poor knowledge, with the odd dash of brilliant information.
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Seems a pretty good assessment charlie :highly_amused:
 
From Olly Murphy’s Twitter

Unfortunately Brewin’upastorm will miss his intended target @Sandownpark this weekend due to a small setback.
 
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