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Mares Hurdle 2019

I think this has huge potential to be a cracking race,
BDD - reigning champ who we haven’t seen yet, beat AJ twice but we saw AJ wasn’t at her best but I thought she won well enough
AJ - again another solid winter, will she won’t she struggle come Mitch again
Laurina - more than likely comes here, hasn’t run against anyone of substance but yard holds her in high regard.

I’m sure we can all agree if we could see these 3 line up on top form and eu. Their true races, it would be a cracker, definitely a race I wouldn’t have a bet on
 
Id back AJ. In that scenario.
On hype alone she'd drift to atleast 9/4. If not a shade bigger on the day.
 
If you think Laurina does run here 5/1 ew is a bet to nothing.
 
Scooby91 said:
Id back AJ. In that scenario.
On hype alone she'd drift to atleast 9/4. If not a shade bigger on the day.
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Its hypothetical so we will never know (unless the three really do clash but that’s unlikely imo) but I would imagine AJ would be favourite against Laurina and BDD. I’d expect something like 11/8 AJ, 2/1 Laurina and 7/2 BDD. But with Laurina and AJ, connections of both will avoid the other I think. If Laurina is to take on a big gun, she may as well do it against Buveur Dair in the Champion Hurdle. If AJ is going to win the easiest race (as they always say is the target for her), it won’t be against BDD and Laurina. They’d divert her to the stayers.

This scenario ensures BDD won’t have to take both of them on and so is currently being overlooked...

That’s the reasoning for me behind my madness.
 
Think Laurina would be fav personally. People will have doubts about AJ after last year and there's so much hype around Laurina.
 
boopa said:
Think Laurina would be fav personally. People will have doubts about AJ after last year and there's so much hype around Laurina.
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Unless she comes out and beats something in her next race, the thought of her being shorter than AJ (the one who’s beaten everything so far this season with ease) and BDD (although I’d understand that one with Ruby likely on Laurina) based purely on hype is crazy.


That being said, I could see that happening when I think back to Samcro going off favourite against BD this season. And Laurina beat less than Samcro did in her novice campaign and so has more to prove than Samcro did in the Fighting Fifth.
 
There's that doubt though. She smashed up Nichols Canyon and Supasundae before Cheltenham went off 1/2 and got beat. She's definitely better going right handed. There wouldn't be much between them in the betting imo.
 
boopa said:
Think Laurina would be fav personally. People will have doubts about AJ after last year and there's so much hype around Laurina.
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100%
Look at buveur dair v samcro.

Exactly same scenario.

Laurina 4/7 Apple's jade 9/4 Imo at the off. Poss 5/2.
 
Except there would be more behind this hype, in that, Mullin's has half a clue with mares and their level's. Elliot wouldn't have had the same experience with 2mile hurdlers.
 
Sky have it 1/1 AJ 5/4 Laurina atm.
 
If AJ goes off second fav in the Mares Hurdle it's a good value bet.

5/2 would be insane
 
11/4 for Benie with Sky NRNB (and I think she could come straight here without a run, or just the one)
might not be bad, there has to be a possibility that she is the only one of the three to run, and if so would be odds on.
And not too much bigger on the day if only one of the others turned up
 
Paddy and BF going 8-1 Laurina.

Fill your boots :highly_amused:
 
Innoko said:
Paddy and BF going 8-1 Laurina.

Fill your boots :highly_amused:
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That's a big big statement.

I know we all read different amounts in to PPs pricing but if I was a Laurina - Mares ticket holder I'd be very worried.

I maintain the Mares isn't easier to win so cam see why they'll have a crack at the CH.

She doesn't have the form to win either yet!
 
Its also questionable just how much easier it will be for her to take on AJ at levels, compared to the CH field with the claim.

I think she's nailed on to run in the CH myself.
 
quevega said:
11/4 for Benie with Sky NRNB (and I think she could come straight here without a run, or just the one)
might not be bad, there has to be a possibility that she is the only one of the three to run, and if so would be odds on.
And not too much bigger on the day if only one of the others turned up
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Very much considering this myself now.

Torn between having the strong opinion that AJ will win, and making the 'smart play' now, when AJ was backed at 3/1.

Neither would make a huge difference to my week given the prices though.
 
Kevloaf said:
Very much considering this myself now.

Torn between having the strong opinion that AJ will win, and making the 'smart play' now, when AJ was backed at 3/1.

Neither would make a huge difference to my week given the prices though.
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Apples is clear favourite for the Irish Champion hurdle in the antepost market.
But Oleary has been his usual trite self stating mares hurdle or possibly stayers, but there has to be a slight chance they re consider, and it may only take one key horse to get an injury, Apples, Buveur, Laurina. for things to juggle around
But I've been waiting on another bookie to go NRNB to see how the 11/4 stands.
If nothing happens I'll be going in for a bet just before dublin I think.
And I'll be betting like it's a race day bet.
 
At 11/4 BDD and Even AJ you'd have Benie then?

I think that's a tight call, if I was only playing the one horse, I'd back Apple's Jade. I fully appreciate the fact BDD beat her twice, and the second time I remember thinking I'd never get lured in by AJ again, but she has just changed my mind. Staggeringly impressive. She has put in two of the most impressive performances in any Grade 1 in her career (the Aintree juvenile race being the others), odds against for the best mare in training?

Tight call, still.
 
Kevloaf said:
At 11/4 BDD and Even AJ you'd have Benie then?

I think that's a tight call, if I was only playing the one horse, I'd back Apple's Jade. I fully appreciate the fact BDD beat her twice, and the second time I remember thinking I'd never get lured in by AJ again, but she has just changed my mind. Staggeringly impressive. She has put in two of the most impressive performances in any Grade 1 in her career (the Aintree juvenile race being the others), odds against for the best mare in training?

Tight call, still.
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I agree, but BDD is unexposed, and at the prices I'd have her, but it's all in Apples' hands I'd agree.
Especially given how outpaced BDD appeared to be last year at cheltenham, I was very relieved to see her get up, even though my acca was busted, and the others came in later in the week.
 
...I made a note of Dan Skelton’s comments regarding Roksana after last years run at Aintree suggesting she would be aimed at this race in 2019. Good to see her entered, i’ve taken the 22-1 price boost with Ladbrokes.
 
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