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Mares Hurdle 2019

Eggs said:
...I made a note of Dan Skelton’s comments regarding Roksana after last years run at Aintree suggesting she would be aimed at this race in 2019. Good to see her entered, i’ve taken the 22-1 price boost with Ladbrokes.
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Has she not been out yet this season by design, do you think?
 
...i’m really not sure but she’s very lightly raced and didn’t run for Skelton until March last year. She might be fragile and I suppose backing her without NRNB has to have an element of risk.
 
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Just read this thread right through to get a feel for everyone's opinions on Apples Jade and Benie in particular - and how those opinions might have shifted as the season has gone on. The only real change is the thought that Laurina is probably less likely to come here now and as we are yet to see Benie, AJ is obviously still highly fancied.

Just say that both Laurina and AJ (as many keep wishing for) did go elsewhere... and Benie didn't materialise? I know it's a longshot but there must be some value in this market somewhere! I realise that the likelihood is that at least 2 of them will show up, but for the sake of discussion, who else should we consider?

I was looking back on Stormy Ireland's races and, on reflection, I thought she ran pretty well against Espoir D'Allen. That horse has been touted as a lively outsider for the Champion and is clearly talented. Given the possibility of Laurina going to the Champion, would Willie and Sullivan Bloodstock consider sending Stormy to this race? She's as short as 8/1 in places but available at 20/1 in places. The off putting thing is that the 20/1 is with PP. That said, I reckon that's a fair each way price. I'd just want to be a bit more confident about her going here as the NRNB angle offers no value in my opinion.
 
delsie777 said:
Just read this thread right through to get a feel for everyone's opinions on Apples Jade and Benie in particular - and how those opinions might have shifted as the season has gone on. The only real change is the thought that Laurina is probably less likely to come here now and as we are yet to see Benie, AJ is obviously still highly fancied.

Just say that both Laurina and AJ (as many keep wishing for) did go elsewhere... and Benie didn't materialise? I know it's a longshot but there must be some value in this market somewhere! I realise that the likelihood is that at least 2 of them will show up, but for the sake of discussion, who else should we consider?

I was looking back on Stormy Ireland's races and, on reflection, I thought she ran pretty well against Espoir D'Allen. That horse has been touted as a lively outsider for the Champion and is clearly talented. Given the possibility of Laurina going to the Champion, would Willie and Sullivan Bloodstock consider sending Stormy to this race? She's as short as 8/1 in places but available at 20/1 in places. The off putting thing is that the 20/1 is with PP. That said, I reckon that's a fair each way price. I'd just want to be a bit more confident about her going here as the NRNB angle offers no value in my opinion.
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It's the trip that concerns me with her, as she is so aggressive in her style and only seems to race one way she would tee this up for horses better than her is my worry.
 
If none of the big three came here I would leave this race alone, Lady buttons diverting would maybe interest me but I’d have to watch her jump a Hurdle on race replays
 
Eggs said:
...i’m really not sure but she’s very lightly raced and didn’t run for Skelton until March last year. She might be fragile and I suppose backing her without NRNB has to have an element of risk.
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I've been waiting for her all season, as the form of the aintree race is really good, and she travelled really well from memory.
 
delsie777 said:
Just read this thread right through to get a feel for everyone's opinions on Apples Jade and Benie in particular - and how those opinions might have shifted as the season has gone on. The only real change is the thought that Laurina is probably less likely to come here now and as we are yet to see Benie, AJ is obviously still highly fancied.

Just say that both Laurina and AJ (as many keep wishing for) did go elsewhere... and Benie didn't materialise? I know it's a longshot but there must be some value in this market somewhere! I realise that the likelihood is that at least 2 of them will show up, but for the sake of discussion, who else should we consider?

I was looking back on Stormy Ireland's races and, on reflection, I thought she ran pretty well against Espoir D'Allen. That horse has been touted as a lively outsider for the Champion and is clearly talented. Given the possibility of Laurina going to the Champion, would Willie and Sullivan Bloodstock consider sending Stormy to this race? She's as short as 8/1 in places but available at 20/1 in places. The off putting thing is that the 20/1 is with PP. That said, I reckon that's a fair each way price. I'd just want to be a bit more confident about her going here as the NRNB angle offers no value in my opinion.
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For the sake of discussion I'll row in... with the caveat, nothing is value whilst all 3 remain viable, as the probability that none of the three run is tiny (I genuinely feel all 3 would need to be injured, as an injury to just one, leaves an "open goal" for one of the others)

So, first thing I'd do is spot another Mullins runner :highly_amused: but Stormy Ireland isn't going to get the trip with the evidence of her run style as Outlaw suggests. I think that's a pretty fair assessment on her.

I'd perhaps look at the run where Limini was beaten into 3rd, by Good Thyne Tara and Elimay. I was hoping for a big run from Elimay, and I believe her form was discussed on the pages within the forum somewhere. I'd expect a nice amount of improvement from her first run that'd lave the likes of Good Thyne Tara well behind (considering GTT was having her 4th run since October on th eback of a Summer campaign) and Elimay hadn't had a run in over a year and that was in France.

Elimay at 25/1 - I'd be interested in - if the others were all definitely not running.
 
I like yours Kev, i'll take a flyer on Momella at 50s....PU last time and probably needs a very nice piece of training to bounce back, but if she did, 50s over 2m 4f i'd be happy with her on my side.
 
jack1092 said:
I like yours Kev, i'll take a flyer on Momella at 50s....PU last time and probably needs a very nice piece of training to bounce back, but if she did, 50s over 2m 4f i'd be happy with her on my side.
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Yeah, I've got half a mind on her for the Coral Cup too.
 
Kevloaf said:
For the sake of discussion I'll row in... with the caveat, nothing is value whilst all 3 remain viable, as the probability that none of the three run is tiny (I genuinely feel all 3 would need to be injured, as an injury to just one, leaves an "open goal" for one of the others)

So, first thing I'd do is spot another Mullins runner :highly_amused: but Stormy Ireland isn't going to get the trip with the evidence of her run style as Outlaw suggests. I think that's a pretty fair assessment on her.

I'd perhaps look at the run where Limini was beaten into 3rd, by Good Thyne Tara and Elimay. I was hoping for a big run from Elimay, and I believe her form was discussed on the pages within the forum somewhere. I'd expect a nice amount of improvement from her first run that'd lave the likes of Good Thyne Tara well behind (considering GTT was having her 4th run since October on th eback of a Summer campaign) and Elimay hadn't had a run in over a year and that was in France.

Elimay at 25/1 - I'd be interested in - if the others were all definitely not running.
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Take your point regarding trip but she thrashed Good Thyne Tara over 2.2f and was beaten 4 lengths by master Dino over 2.4f in very soft ground at Auteuil - admittedly getting lumps of weight. I think she's a stronger horse than the raw version we saw in the Triumph last year. But hey... just a thought
 
If she settled I'd definitely have no issue at 2m4f for her - I just couldn't be confident she will settle now?

It's only a small niggle, she's a good horse. My CH pacemaker plot went up in smoke for her this week anyway :highly_amused:
 
....good to see Roksana with an entry at Sandown on Saturday.
 
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...lots of blue on Oddschecker with folk looking for value, the race could now be a decent betting proposition with the Elliott announcement this morning.

Thought Roksana had a decent preparation yesterday, fingers crossed this is the aim.
 
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