Identity thief must come into the reckoning for the stayers after that, breezed past horses considered top performers at the distance on his first attempt. Was very classy over hurdles before they went down the chasing route, put up a couple of good performances this season without troubling the judge, looks to me like the step up in trip could be the making of him.
A week ago I would have thought anyone was mad at bringing up
Identity Thief in any kind of bet but I have say I can see the appeal absolutely. He bolted up yesterday. I almost backed him before the race, thought I was mad...wish I had! :very_drunk: All credit has to go to the trainer for getting him back to form this year. He looked gone at the game at the back end of last season.
O'Leary stated after the race:
It opens up another avenue now and we'll keep him to three-mile hurdling. He'll definitely go to Punchestown – everything's going to Punchestown
Which is good news for his target. Even if he didn't he has nowhere else to go. They would be mad to try him out chasing again after finally getting him back to form and he's not going to step back down to 2 miles. If you do fancy him - one to get onboard before the Champion Stayers Hurdle as if he follows up there 20's will be long gone. Part of me questions how good the race was yesterday but I think that's more a sign of the division rather than Aintree race in isolation. Penhill aside, only really Supasundae bypassed the race and he's now 1/9 in grade 1 races so you have to question him at this level. Take out last season where from December onwards it went all wrong he has plenty going for him. His first season in open company included
1st in the Fighting Fifth
Only 2 lengths 2nd behind Nichols Canynon in the Ryanair Hurdle
Coming 2nd in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Punchestown
Let's just say you took last season out of the equation, say he was injured. That season followed by what actually has been an ok season now winning his first attempt at 3 miles like that - he'd be at the forefront of the betting. His breeding what suggest stamina is what he actually wants and the
run yesterday suggested he really enjoyed the long run in at Aintree, so you would expect him to enjoy the new course much more than the old course at the festival.
Any ground concerns? I'd be slightly concerned on good ground, his record looks like so:
Good 6U
Good-Soft 6
Yielding P121P
Soft 161121
Heavy 42
So wins on yielding ground is encouraging and the 2 runs on good ground were last season when he seemed gone at the game so i'm happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.
On a quick side note (and not for this) I imagine there could be some decent prices, certainly on the exchange for The World's End next season. Maybe the argument is riding thin but would love to see him get his good ground at some point in one of these key 3 mile races to see whether he really can step up a gear on his preferred ground or he just isn't quite up to the level. We just haven't been able to say for sure all year with the ground.
On
Santini - I'm pretty shocked he is still 12/1 for the RSA. No doubt on target (imo) and although the division has the potential to be really competitive, bar Samcro, his form has to put him as the next leading contender? Think 12/1 for the RSA is a must for any kind of yankee myself.
