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J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

doctorwu said:
I wouldn't be to worried with Getabird missing out on the Drinmore. Its normally won by 3milers. Not a race for JLT winners
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A tiny bit surprising really, but backs up the theory that the first half of the season in Ireland the trip that horses run at isn't reflective of where they may end up.

It's quite an impressove roll call though the Drinmore...

Year - 1st - 2nd - 3rd
2017 - Death Duty Rathvinden Snow Falcon
2016 - Coney Island Anibale Fly Alpha Des Obeaux
2015 - No More Heroes Monksland Free Expression
2014 - Valseur Lido Apache Stronghold Real Steel
2013 - Don Cossack Carlingford Lough Road To Riches
2012 - Arvika Ligeonniere Dedigout Texas Jack
 
Scooby91 said:
I think with a clear round la bague au roi makes all and wins. But impressive stuff if lost in translation beats her fair and square
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Looking forward to seeing LBAR over the big ones.
 
It does say 'no decision has been made'.....but OK I admit defeat :devilish:
 
Innoko said:
It does say 'no decision has been made'.....but OK I admit defeat :devilish:
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Playing Devil's Advocate here but could the owners be saying this to push out the Arkle price a little? Then just say Hendo overruled us closer to the time when they are on bigger? Or is that Just my wicked mind!!
 
Have gone in on both the Henderson pair for this. Backed both e/way given his record of hitting a place the past 4 seasons. 25's & 20's with 365. Takes me to 3 specifically backed for this race which include Voix Du Reve, plus Lostintranslation & Vision Des Flos both as 'any race' bets. Potentially 5 and I am still waiting for an update on Messire Des Obeaux as he interests me too.

All above 20's and suspect at least a couple of them will be single figures come race day, once the market collapses as seems standard with the novice chases year in year out.
 
I've not backed anything for this race yet, I do find the middle trip for novices the harder to predict, in terms of who may run.
For some reason I think Kalashnikov may end up here, as he looks a stayer to me, and his better form was in truly run heavy ground races. Unless his jumping is electric, I reckon on festival good ground they may be tempted to go up in trip, dependent entirely on how his other races have gone, as he gradually steps up in class through the season.
TBH I've not read any comments from the stable and I assume they've said they're aiming for the arkle, and I know she said he'd be better on good ground, but aside from they all run faster on good ground, he didn't look like a "classy quick type hurdler" to me.
 
Happy with that from Lostintranslation should he end up here. Tanked for the most part of the race today over 2f further, as noted on another thread. Will need to settle better should he want to be competitive over further, but have him 'any race' anyway and on the whole thought it was a cracking opening to his chase career.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Happy with that from Lostintranslation should he end up here. Tanked for the most part of the race today over 2f further, as noted on another thread. Will need to settle better should he want to be competitive over further, but have him 'any race' anyway and on the whole thought it was a cracking opening to his chase career.
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Agree with that. More than happy with both him and La Bague Au Roi who i'm a massive fan of. It does seem like she's very much one to catch at the first half of the season but i'd love to see her be competitive in the Spring festivals now she's over fences, she really is a huge and imposing horse - what a lovely mare.

On Lostintranslation - sounds like he was pretty big and carrying a fair bit of condition. Add in Tizzard having a bit of a quiet spell of late and there's plenty of promise and no disgrace in losing to her as in comparison she was probably more tuned up for the day. Wouldn't surprise me if he goes up in trip as the season goes on and ends up over 3 miles as well, even if the step up isn't until Aintree.

Lots to like :encouragement:
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Happy with that from Lostintranslation should he end up here. Tanked for the most part of the race today over 2f further, as noted on another thread. Will need to settle better should he want to be competitive over further, but have him 'any race' anyway and on the whole thought it was a cracking opening to his chase career.
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It was a reasonable opener la bague au roi is a nice mare. What I don't like about tizzard though and is the reason I won't back any of his and especially not any race. Is he's all about the big races. He'll send them to every trial and often. If he gets beat he'll carry on down the same difficult path. It renders any race pointless in terms of handicaps your getting no value . Vision des flos and lost in translation had marks in the early 130s due to his placing over hurdles. Vision des flos should have gone for the county instead of that listed race and lostintranslarion the martin pipe. But tizzard really has no interest in that.
With the likes of Gordon there's always a secondary plan and your getting value in the fact he will place them in the race rhey have the best chance of winning and won't run round the back of a grade 1 at 50/1 if theyre found to be not good enough.
 
Scooby91 said:
It was a reasonable opener la bague au roi is a nice mare. What I don't like about tizzard though and is the reason I won't back any of his and especially not any race. Is he's all about the big races. He'll send them to every trial and often. If he gets beat he'll carry on down the same difficult path. It renders any race pointless in terms of handicaps your getting no value . Vision des flos and lost in translation had marks in the early 130s due to his placing over hurdles. Vision des flos should have gone for the county instead of that listed race and lostintranslarion the martin pipe. But tizzard really has no interest in that.
With the likes of Gordon there's always a secondary plan and your getting value in the fact he will place them in the race rhey have the best chance of winning and won't run round the back of a grade 1 at 50/1 if theyre found to be not good enough.
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Good point. I think the backlash against him, particularly last season although imo justified to a degree, was slightly extreme but I'll admit there's a few horses of his where i'd be more than happy for them to be trained by another trainer (and i'm not just talking about Mullins/Henderson/Elliott etc) and I do have it as a slight negative. What the media like to portray as a 'positive' and 'ballsy' attitude can like you say be at the detriment to a horses chances. For all it was brilliant to see Thistlecrack attempt to have a go for the Gold Cup as a novice, there's been far more occasions where this kind of attitude has backfired.
 
I have my doubts about Tizzards training performance for the whole of last season tbh! He tried pretty much everything with Finian's Oscar, and ultimately ruined him IMO. All bar Kilbricken Storm, his novice hurdlers were tried at numerous different trips, it's like he had no clue on placement, which I am sure isn't the case. Maybe he knew chasing was going to be their game and for that reason kept them ticking over, regardless of the race. Don't get me wrong, he got some fair results along the way, but the big ones seemed beyond him, and I guess for that reason the 'any race' market is probably a negative approach really.

I placed the bets with a view on the horses potential ability rather than the trainer so much.
 
Vinndication is entered up for a 2m4f novice chase at Carlisle on Monday
 
Thought yesterday's race was very informative. Lostintranslation lost little in defeat, la bague au roi very impressive but the stats of her come spring mean I can't fancy her for the festival. The horses in third and fourth definitely caught my eye talkischeap travelled and jumped really well and ill definitely keep a close eye on him for the rest of the season and Thomas Campbells run screamed 4 Miler for me.
 
Just catching up with Discorama this morning - has festival form but not sure about his trip.
 
Looking forward to seeing vindication tomorrow, think he's a really good horse. 33/1 at bet365 at the moment. JLT probably the right race and worth a go at that price before he wins tomorrow lol
 
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