Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase 2018

[Deleted member 4957]

I never take a strong view on any handicap but the more I look at this race the more I like Rather Be.
Beaten 5l in Ballyandy's bumper and always needing a bit further he was well fancied but hampered and unshipped Charlie Deutsch in the Martin Pipe last year, he made up for that by winning the big handicap at Aintree.
2m 4f is ideal for him and after a mishap at Plumpton he has taken really well to fences, although Fakenham won't be the biggest test a horse will ever get he jumped like a natural that day beating a 137 horse of Evan Williams without coming off the bridle, 143 to me looks very generous chase mark....

 

[Robbante]

I never take a strong view on any handicap but the more I look at this race the more I like Rather Be.
Beaten 5l in Ballyandy's bumper and always needing a bit further he was well fancied but hampered and unshipped Charlie Deutsch in the Martin Pipe last year, he made up for that by winning the big handicap at Aintree.
2m 4f is ideal for him and after a mishap at Plumpton he has taken really well to fences, although Fakenham won't be the biggest test a horse will ever get he jumped like a natural that day beating a 137 horse of Evan Williams without coming off the bridle, 143 to me looks very generous chase mark....

Was looking at this race earlier. I like Rather Be as well and will be on, the big dangers for me are being backed... De Plotting Shed and Any Second Now

 

[ComplyOrDie]

I never take a strong view on any handicap but the more I look at this race the more I like Rather Be.
Beaten 5l in Ballyandy's bumper and always needing a bit further he was well fancied but hampered and unshipped Charlie Deutsch in the Martin Pipe last year, he made up for that by winning the big handicap at Aintree.
2m 4f is ideal for him and after a mishap at Plumpton he has taken really well to fences, although Fakenham won't be the biggest test a horse will ever get he jumped like a natural that day beating a 137 horse of Evan Williams without coming off the bridle, 143 to me looks very generous chase mark....

Certainly one of interest for me, a horse with clear talent, although does seem to love to unseat the rider, even managed it in a NH Flat race on racecourse debut, but that aside, he is definitely on my shortlist.

 

[Kevloaf]

Certainly one of interest for me, a horse with clear talent, although does seem to love to unseat the rider, even managed it in a NH Flat race on racecourse debut, but that aside, he is definitely on my shortlist.

I like the horse too, I remember checking his odds and seeing he was fav at the time and haven't really thought about it since.
The number on non completions is making me tentative though.

 

[Quevega]

I like the horse too, I remember checking his odds and seeing he was fav at the time and haven't really thought about it since.
The number on non completions is making me tentative though.

The yard clearly fancy both novices for this, Nicktys assistant Toby gave more positive mentions on a star sports panel ever so slightly favoring Divine Spear of the two, probably for the reasons you mention (jumping). He also tipped stowaway magic for the coral cup which I thought was interesting, watched it's run at ascot again and can't make up my mind.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'm surprised that Any Second Now gets in here off his Irish mark. Hopefully Ted Walsh targets this now, instead of the Grand Annual.

A grade 2 winner over hurdles (admittedly an average renewal), he has ran some promising races over fences, finishing behind Monalee and Footpad, when I suspect the handbrake was on a little.

12/1 nrnb appeals.

 

[Roadtorespect]

I'm surprised that Any Second Now gets in here off his Irish mark. Hopefully Ted Walsh targets this now, instead of the Grand Annual.

A grade 2 winner over hurdles (admittedly an average renewal), he has ran some promising races over fences, finishing behind Monalee and Footpad, when I suspect the handbrake was on a little.

12/1 nrnb appeals.

was never entered in the grand annual. has an entry for the irish national though. hopefully this has been the target tho

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

was never entered in the grand annual. has an entry for the irish national though. hopefully this has been the target tho

You're right R2R. I'd backed him ages ago for the Grand Annual so assumed he was entered.

He can win this then go Irish National. Perfect.

 

[Kevloaf]

I'm surprised that Any Second Now gets in here off his Irish mark. Hopefully Ted Walsh targets this now, instead of the Grand Annual.

A grade 2 winner over hurdles (admittedly an average renewal), he has ran some promising races over fences, finishing behind Monalee and Footpad, when I suspect the handbrake was on a little.

12/1 nrnb appeals.

What have you got in your "team" so far in this race ?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just ASN...I think. I'll leave it at that and add one or two more when I see the final field.

Who have you backed so far Kev?

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...

 

[Kevloaf]

Just ASN...I think. I'll leave it at that and add one or two more when I see the final field.

Who have you backed so far Kev?

Movewiththetimes - Any race e/w 20/1 - happy enough
Peregrine Run NRNB 16/1 - happy enough

Tycoon Price 20/1 NRNB - Unlikely runner
The Storyteller NRNB - Too high

 

[Bayoffreedom]

Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...

Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running

 

[kinloch brae]

Is BoF still logged in ?
Has Peter said anything about Peregrine Run ?
Remember the plunge last year for the Coral Cup, you mentioned him at 33/1 and he got backed into fav on the day I think...

I backed him at a big price. Was there any excuse because the performance was average at best? Took the shortest route and didn't really finish up the hill. The horse I mentioned, Conrad Hastings, has a similar form chance and has had a prep run. They would both prefer better ground but at least Conrad hasn't disappointed at the Festival.

 

[Deleted member 4957]

Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running

Thanks BoF, much appreciated

 

[Kevloaf]

Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running

Thanks BoF

That brings me down to just 1 runner again.

All NRNB though so no harm!

 

[Can't Catch Me]

Ista - I spoke to Peter at length on Monday and he was thinking the horse would not be going to Cheltenham and he would only be sending Mine Now for the Pertemps (although that has been hammered by the handicapper). I don't want to put people away but I very much doubt he will be running

Hammered indeed... Mine Now will do very well to beat Glenloe again on these revised terms!

 

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone like Kalondra in this? (Carrying joint top weight of 11 10)

In December, over the all important Course and Distance, Kalondra carried 5lbs more than Movewiththetimes(10/1 best price for this race) and carried 5lbs more than Coo Star Sivola (who is 14/1 3rd fav for Ultima)

and beat them 3.75L and 5.25L respectively

When they meet up again, Movewiththetimes will carry 11 07 which gives him 3lbs back... however that he needs to find another 2lbs AND then catch up 5.25L.

MWTT is 10/1 best priced whereas you can get...

16/1 for Kalondra - looks a good bet to me compared to MWTT, and good bet overall. He has 4 Good to Soft wins in his career, so the likely ground will suit, he's likely to have Noel Fehily on board... who is an excellent rider and I really, really like his chances now that I've had a look through some of the runners.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

Not really a race I had put much effort into until today, and I was really surprised to see De Plotting Shed a sea of blue on Oddschecker if I am honest.

It can only be the Elliott factor and that he may look like a plot horse, because not only is he a maiden over fences, and going by Gaultstats maidens have a 30% win rate over the past 10 runnings of the race, not very high for a 6/1 shot in a tough handicap, but he also hasn't won for nearly 18 months, admittedly within that time he has run in some fairly hot races, it would still be a worry for me.

I think Drumcliff could possibly bounce back for the step up in trip, and Rather Be could be anything, having never raced over fences over this distance, but he has looked very good when winning 2 of his 3 runs over shorter to date.

They would be my 2 for now, though there is one I want to look into tomorrow that is of big interest, at early viewing anyway, and once I'm on I shall reveal that one, though someone may have already mentioned him at some point on this thread too.

 

[JackieMoon33]

Does anyone like Kalondra in this? (Carrying joint top weight of 11 10)

In December, over the all important Course and Distance, Kalondra carried 5lbs more than Movewiththetimes(10/1 best price for this race) and carried 5lbs more than Coo Star Sivola (who is 14/1 3rd fav for Ultima)

and beat them 3.75L and 5.25L respectively

When they meet up again, Movewiththetimes will carry 11 07 which gives him 3lbs back... however that he needs to find another 2lbs AND then catch up 5.25L.

MWTT is 10/1 best priced whereas you can get...

16/1 for Kalondra - looks a good bet to me compared to MWTT, and good bet overall. He has 4 Good to Soft wins in his career, so the likely ground will suit, he's likely to have Noel Fehily on board... who is an excellent rider and I really, really like his chances now that I've had a look through some of the runners.

Should definitely be on any shortlist