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J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

Rigga said:
So now who wins this race ?
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Looking at the betting:

6/1 - Lostintranslation - comes here has solid form over C&D but has since been cut following Dino news.
10/1 - Samcro - doesn't run here
10/1 - LBAR - is RSA the plan? Form has tailored off in Spring in the past.
11/1 - Lalor - Arkle bound.
12/1 - DDS - Not a bad price in fairness, did fold easily the last day when looking all over the winner.
14/1 - TOTG - Best price with Betfair suggests he's nailed on for RSA.
14/1 - Getabird - Looks like he'll dodge the festival.
14/1 - Kalashnikov - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Le Richbourg - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Vindication - May not run but the value if he does 10s NRNB sounds good to me.

That leaves us with LIT, DDS, V. The flogas should sort the Irish challenge but there is nothing obvious jumping out.
 
Folski said:
Looking at the betting:

6/1 - Lostintranslation - comes here has solid form over C&D but has since been cut following Dino news.
10/1 - Samcro - doesn't run here
10/1 - LBAR - is RSA the plan? Form has tailored off in Spring in the past.
11/1 - Lalor - Arkle bound.
12/1 - DDS - Not a bad price in fairness, did fold easily the last day when looking all over the winner.
14/1 - TOTG - Best price with Betfair suggests he's nailed on for RSA.
14/1 - Getabird - Looks like he'll dodge the festival.
14/1 - Kalashnikov - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Le Richbourg - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Vindication - May not run but the value if he does 10s NRNB sounds good to me.

That leaves us with LIT, DDS, V. The flogas should sort the Irish challenge but there is nothing obvious jumping out.
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I am left with my own shortlist of DDS, Vinndication, Getabird & Voix Du Reve.

I have LIT 'any race' @ 22's so I'm happy to leave him now.
 
Lostintranslation's jumping last time out was fast and efficient. Disappointed I missed the bigger prices now. He would be vulnerable to one with more pace that sees it out unlike DDS.
 
boopa said:
Lostintranslation's jumping last time out was fast and efficient. Disappointed I missed the bigger prices now. He would be vulnerable to one with more pace that sees it out unlike DDS.
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Do you not think Geraghty pushed the button a bit too soon on DDS? Maybe by design.
 
Wonder if B365 knew Master Dino wasn't right when they quoted me 66-1 for King George.:disgust: in hindsight 66-1 was too big
 
Folski said:
Looking at the betting:

6/1 - Lostintranslation - comes here has solid form over C&D but has since been cut following Dino news.
10/1 - Samcro - doesn't run here
10/1 - LBAR - is RSA the plan? Form has tailored off in Spring in the past.
11/1 - Lalor - Arkle bound.
12/1 - DDS - Not a bad price in fairness, did fold easily the last day when looking all over the winner.
14/1 - TOTG - Best price with Betfair suggests he's nailed on for RSA.
14/1 - Getabird - Looks like he'll dodge the festival.
14/1 - Kalashnikov - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Le Richbourg - Arkle bound surely?
14/1 - Vindication - May not run but the value if he does 10s NRNB sounds good to me.

That leaves us with LIT, DDS, V. The flogas should sort the Irish challenge but there is nothing obvious jumping out.
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Agree with this almost 100% unfortunately only got Vinndication covered but DDS is still an appealing price. The race is still wide open though with enough doubts about those currently on the shortlist.
 
ComplyOrDie said:
Do you not think Geraghty pushed the button a bit too soon on DDS? Maybe by design.
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Possibly but that would be harsh. If he held on a bit longer and got beat people would say he should have put the race to bed sooner.
 
boopa said:
Possibly but that would be harsh. If he held on a bit longer and got beat people would say he should have put the race to bed sooner.
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Some would have for sure, but knowing how DDS cruises into the race I'd be keener on him holding on to the horse. LIT is a brute of a horse though and deserves his place at the top of the market.
 
Thought it was a good losing ride myself. Lostintranslation made his only slight jumping error 2 out, Barry kicked on to win the race at the right time.
 
boopa said:
Thought it was a good losing ride myself. Lostintranslation made his only slight jumping error 2 out, Barry kicked on to win the race at the right time.
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Yeah, I may be being a bit harsh. Hopefully though he'll hold on to him a bit longer next time, see if that can make any difference.
 
I noticed support for Le Richebourg before the Master Dino injury. He was over 40's into low 20's.
 
boopa said:
I noticed support for Le Richebourg before the Master Dino injury. He was over 40's into low 20's.
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I hope he doesn't come here. Ive got him down as an Arkle shoe-in.:devilish:
 
This market screams being left alone at the moment.

Lostintranslation probably the pick of likely runners now looks to have sorted his jumping out. I'd love to see Vinndication here but vibes seem to be for RSA if he comes to Cheltenham.

An Irish challenger or two will undoubtedly will pop up once they see how weak the race looks. I'll be keeping my powder dry until the Dublin Racing Festival.
 
boopa said:
I noticed support for Le Richebourg before the Master Dino injury. He was over 40's into low 20's.
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I requested a bit of the 40s.

Didn't get as much as I wanted though
 
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