J.L.T Novices Chase 2019

[The Beast]

He looking after Vindication as I see it , definately Gold Cup material next year on this performance. With that in mind Bailey would also know its shaping up like a redhot RSA , and would the JLT be the easier option , simple answer is yes.Plan A may change should anything happen to Santini , Next Destination or Delta Work.
Wouldnt put anyone off for JLT or RSA if you fancy him though any race probably safest option.

 

[Scooby91]

He looking after Vindication as I see it , definately Gold Cup material next year on this performance. With that in mind Bailey would also know its shaping up like a redhot RSA , and would the JLT be the easier option , simple answer is yes.Plan A may change should anything happen to Santini , Next Destination or Delta Work.
Wouldnt put anyone off for JLT or RSA if you fancy him though any race probably safest option.

Any race the least safe. As if he dosent run you've obviously done your dough.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The Gold Cup-winning trainer added: "Today was a test for him and I'm happy to go up another Grade with him. Cheltenham was the aim last season, but he had sore shins and that's why I stopped.
"Chasing was always going to be his game, as that his why we went straight from a bumper to a hurdle race. I always felt this was going to be a good season for him. The RSA will be a possibility. Cheltenham is not the be all and end all for me. At the end of it the long-term future of this horse is important to me, as I think he can go a long way."

Bar your mates word, indicators seem to be pointing RSA at the minute. Trainer comments, market prices and maybe even today’s run shaped like it

Hey Bobby good to have this balance. Certainly makes it clear Cheltenham is no foregone conclusion. To be fair the point I have tried to make is that it is a possibility though from what I had heard. And as I’m sure Archie can testify planned targets can change at any time, so whatever I hear via one of the owners is certainly not taken as gospel. Again that’s why having the cash out option is great. Fingers crossed I get word first if the Festival is skipped or the target is indeed the RSA. I don’t take the ‘RSA is a possibility’ quote as confirmation that is the target as it depends how the question was asked. Clearly the way he stays it must be an option of course. No doubt this conversation will continue to run...looking forward to it

 

[Kevloaf]

Any race the least safe. As if he dosent run you've obviously done your dough.

Unless you've backed with 365.

If they're NRNB, even if Trainer says 'he won't run' they won't push him out unless he's actually OUT.

We'll all be ahead of the game.


I'm personally not going to back him for the RSA though

 

[Scooby91]

Unless you've backed with 365.

If they're NRNB, even if Trainer says 'he won't run' they won't push him out unless he's actually OUT.

We'll all be ahead of the game.


I'm personally not going to back him for the RSA though

That's why I just said any race is least safe.

 

[boopa]

365 are not offering any cash out profit. Not that i'd take it at this point.

 

[ComplyOrDie]

365 are not offering any cash out profit. Not that i'd take it at this point.

I've noticed this with a few bets tbh, seems like they may be wising up to people backing just before a run and cashing mid or straight after the race for profit/minimal loss.

On another note, I think it was Elliott that said he felt you needed to have a stayer for the JLT, and gave this reason as to why Shattered Love was switched last season, I'm not sure if these comments were more in tune with the ground being as it was or a general 'every JLT' comment.

 

[SeanRock]

If he’s going to the Scilly Isles Chase next he’ll be JLT bound if running at the festival, connections will hardly chance a horse there keen to wrap in cotton wool over 3m for the first time round Cheltenham. The Scilly Isles has produced the last two runners up in the JLT.

 

[bobbyvalentino]

Hey Bobby good to have this balance. Certainly makes it clear Cheltenham is no foregone conclusion. To be fair the point I have tried to make is that it is a possibility though from what I had heard. And as I’m sure Archie can testify planned targets can change at any time, so whatever I hear via one of the owners is certainly not taken as gospel. Again that’s why having the cash out option is great. Fingers crossed I get word first if the Festival is skipped or the target is indeed the RSA. I don’t take the ‘RSA is a possibility’ quote as confirmation that is the target as it depends how the question was asked. Clearly the way he stays it must be an option of course. No doubt this conversation will continue to run...looking forward to it

Sounds like trainer and owners are having a difference of opinion, but your input is certainly appreciated from me.

For what it's worth I'd rather he went JLT - bigger price, and that RSA is looking red-hot. You had to love some of those jumps today.

 

[boopa]

I've noticed this with a few bets tbh, seems like they may be wising up to people backing just before a run and cashing mid or straight after the race for profit/minimal loss.

On another note, I think it was Elliott that said he felt you needed to have a stayer for the JLT, and gave this reason as to why Shattered Love was switched last season, I'm not sure if these comments were more in tune with the ground being as it was or a general 'every JLT' comment.

Look at the top 3 in past renewals it's all stayers.

 

[Kevloaf]

That's why I just said any race is least safe.

Oh yeah, I thought it was stange you'd have made that point - didn't read it properly! Apologies.

365 are not offering any cash out profit. Not that i'd take it at this point.

I've mentioned this before, I think they're not offering profit on ones that seem less likely to win/run. There is defintiely some thought into it?

I've noticed this with a few bets tbh, seems like they may be wising up to people backing just before a run and cashing mid or straight after the race for profit/minimal loss.

We really should be tracking/working it out shouldn't we

 

[Quevega]

Oh yeah, I thought it was stange you'd have made that point - didn't read it properly! Apologies.



I've mentioned this before, I think they're not offering profit on ones that seem less likely to win/run. There is defintiely some thought into it?



We really should be tracking/working it out shouldn't we

All same stakes. Win Only

Adjali 33 into 10 - cash out odds approx 4/6
Angels Breath 33 into 12 cash out odds approx 1/3
Laurina 12 into 3 cash out odds approx 4/3
Quick Grabim 50 into 16 cash out odds approx 1/4

Looks like it's percentage based so may increment in tiers, but I believe they factor in the odds of the horse making the specific race. For example A bumper horse may well have a higher cash out as not as many races likely to enter etc.
But I've no idea really.

 

[Scooby91]

All same stakes. Win Only

Adjali 33 into 10 - cash out odds approx 4/6
Angels Breath 33 into 12 cash out odds approx 1/3
Laurina 12 into 3 cash out odds approx 4/3
Quick Grabim 50 into 16 cash out odds approx 1/4

Looks like it's percentage based so may increment in tiers, but I believe they factor in the odds of the horse making the specific race. For example A bumper horse may well have a higher cash out as not as many races likely to enter etc.
But I've no idea really.

There's no point working it out until it's full cashout on Jan 1st.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

All same stakes. Win Only

Adjali 33 into 10 - cash out odds approx 4/6
Angels Breath 33 into 12 cash out odds approx 1/3
Laurina 12 into 3 cash out odds approx 4/3
Quick Grabim 50 into 16 cash out odds approx 1/4

Looks like it's percentage based so may increment in tiers, but I believe they factor in the odds of the horse making the specific race. For example A bumper horse may well have a higher cash out as not as many races likely to enter etc.
But I've no idea really.

The benefit of the 365 cash out is when you can get money back on a bad bet, not to profit from a horse that shortens.

 

[Innoko]

The benefit of the 365 cash out is when you can get money back on a bad bet, not to profit from a horse that shortens.

That is sense right there.

 

[Quevega]

That is sense right there.

No it isn't.
I don't even use the facility to cash out shortened horses myself, but it is clearly 'one' of the benefits.

That's like saying the only benefit of water is it gets you wet.

So it's actually nonsense, not sense.

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

No it isn't.
I don't even use the facility to cash out shortened horses myself, but it is clearly 'one' of the benefits.

That's like saying the only benefit of water is it gets you wet.

So it's actually nonsense, not sense.

You've just gave a perfect example of why it's not worth cashing out.

If you've backed Angels Breath at 33/1 are you thinking of cashing out at 1/3 profit?

You cash out for a decent profit routinely and you won't have an account for long. I'd rather use it to get my stake back on the bad bets than cash out for profit on those that have shortened.

 

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

You've just gave a perfect example of why it's not worth cashing out.

If you've backed Angels Breath at 33/1 are you thinking of cashing out at 1/3 profit?

You cash out for a decent profit routinely and you won't have an account for long. I'd rather use it to get my stake back on the bad bets than cash out for profit on those that have shortened.

Exactly how I use it, even content with a 5% stake loss if horse runs significantly worse than expected

 

[Quevega]

If you make profit routinely you won't have an account for long.
Nothing to do with cashing out, aside from that being a tool that can be utilised in order to make profit.

The cash out option is a tease to the cautious, if they're offering it then they are happy for you to take it.
If you have a yankee with the first three up as winners and they offer cash out, they aren't going to close your account if you take it. Only if you're consistently a winning account. Or any other reasons at their discretion.

What you do (and myself) with antepost bets is exactly the same but in reverse.

I already said I rarely (if ever) do it so don't understand the angel's breath comment.

 

[TimRiggins]

If you make profit routinely you won't have an account for long.
Nothing to do with cashing out, aside from that being a tool that can be utilised in order to make profit.

The cash out option is a tease to the cautious, if they're offering it then they are happy for you to take it.
If you have a yankee with the first three up as winners and they offer cash out, they aren't going to close your account if you take it. Only if you're consistently a winning account. Or any other reasons at their discretion.

What you do (and myself) with antepost bets is exactly the same but in reverse.

I already said I rarely (if ever) do it so don't understand the angel's breath comment.

Beating SP too often is enough with some firms.

They'll be chuffed if you're using cashout on multiples, and other similar stuff. It's not there to be punter friendly.