Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

[Lobos]

All this chat re Galvin has made me go in again on him in the TWAR market. He's up there now in my top 10 profiteers !!

 

[archie]

https://shop.chastheboat.co.uk/prod..._content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic

 

[BigChaang]

:highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

https://shop.chastheboat.co.uk/prod..._content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic

Already got some . Got in early at a better TWAR price

 

[Kevloaf]

Just glancing through the TWAR list on Willhill.



What price would you think you'd get for a festival winner from 2018, who went off 5/2 for a Championship race last year?

 

[Faugheen_Machine]

Just glancing through the TWAR list on Willhill.



What price would you think you'd get for a festival winner from 2018, who went off 5/2 for a Championship race last year?

A Plus Tard?

 

[nortonscoin200]

Just glancing through the TWAR list on Willhill.



What price would you think you'd get for a festival winner from 2018, who went off 5/2 for a Championship race last year?

33-1 Laurina for the Mares Chase or 25-1 TWAR. Interesting......good 33-1 each way double with Galvin in the NH Chase.

Joking!!!!

 

[Nortons who]

I'm a big fan of TWAR bets, particularly* when I can slso take advantage of odds boosts to squeeze a bit more out of the price. As indicated by Kev I aim to ensure that the TWAR price is at least as good as backing the selection in 2 races that it's most likely to run in. Where some of the Novice hurdlers potentially have 3 targets it's more of a certainty that I will go with TWAR. Similarly where there are questions as to whether a horse will stay over hurdles or go chasing.

I also look out for potential runners in the Festival Handicaps, where the target race is unlikely to be known for sure until final declarations.

In 2020 I backed 38 selectiins TWAR totalling 36 points, of which 19 were non runners and 19 ran split between 11 races. I had 2 TWAR winners totalling 40 points, so a meagre profit of only 4 points.

However, in the 11 races in which I had TWAR selections running I generally had a reasonable book including the favourites so ended up with the winner in 9 of those races. For me one of the attractions of TWAR is that where the horses finally run is determined by the trainers and not me, so where they end up is usually a good indicator or their merits in respect of the final book for that race.

For info the following TWAR bets in 2020 gave me a run for my money, some a much better run than others!

# Supreme - Chantry House 3rd, Asterion Forlonge 4th and Elixir Dainay fell
# CH - Darasso 10th
# Northern Trust - Galvin 2nd
# NH Chase - Carefully Selected U/R
# Ballymore - The Big Getaway 3rd
# RSA - Allaho 3rd
# Boodles - Mick Pastor 10th
# Marsh Chase - Reserve Tank 4th, Tornado Flyer 5th and Midnight Shadow 6th
# Ryanair - Min 1st, A Plus Tard 3rd
# County Hurdle - Saint Roi 1st, Buildmeupbuttercup 4th, Ciel De neige 15th, Rathill 17th
# Albert Bartlett - Thyme Hill 4th

For 2021,* the breadth and depth of TWAR has been far more extensive at this stage than in previous years and I decided very early on to take full advantage, both for win singles and doubles. Admittedly I don't have cash out as an option on these bets but will consider using Betfair Exchange to lay some back if I'm double handed following the first leg of my Ante Post doubles.

 

[Lobos]

I'm a big fan of TWAR bets, particularly* when I can slso take advantage of odds boosts to squeeze a bit more out of the price. As indicated by Kev I aim to ensure that the TWAR price is at least as good as backing the selection in 2 races that it's most likely to run in. Where some of the Novice hurdlers potentially have 3 targets it's more of a certainty that I will go with TWAR. Similarly where there are questions as to whether a horse will stay over hurdles or go chasing.

I also look out for potential runners in the Festival Handicaps, where the target race is unlikely to be known for sure until final declarations.

In 2020 I backed 38 selectiins TWAR totalling 36 points, of which 19 were non runners and 19 ran split between 11 races. I had 2 TWAR winners totalling 40 points, so a meagre profit of only 4 points.

However, in the 11 races in which I had TWAR selections running I generally had a reasonable book including the favourites so ended up with the winner in 9 of those races. For me one of the attractions of TWAR is that where the horses finally run is determined by the trainers and not me, so where they end up is usually a good indicator or their merits in respect of the final book for that race.

For info the following TWAR bets in 2020 gave me a run for my money, some a much better run than others!

# Supreme - Chantry House 3rd, Asterion Forlonge 4th and Elixir Dainay fell
# CH - Darasso 10th
# Northern Trust - Galvin 2nd
# NH Chase - Carefully Selected U/R
# Ballymore - The Big Getaway 3rd
# RSA - Allaho 3rd
# Boodles - Mick Pastor 10th
# Marsh Chase - Reserve Tank 4th, Tornado Flyer 5th and Midnight Shadow 6th
# Ryanair - Min 1st, A Plus Tard 3rd
# County Hurdle - Saint Roi 1st, Buildmeupbuttercup 4th, Ciel De neige 15th, Rathill 17th
# Albert Bartlett - Thyme Hill 4th

For 2021,* the breadth and depth of TWAR has been far more extensive at this stage than in previous years and I decided very early on to take full advantage, both for win singles and doubles. Admittedly I don't have cash out as an option on these bets but will consider using Betfair Exchange to lay some back if I'm double handed following the first leg of my Ante Post doubles.

I to got on a few decent TWAR doubles before they were taken down. If you take Ballyadam and Ferney Hollow for instance they both could go at least 3 ways each and you would expect them to be split as they are same connections. Therefore the TWAR double those two gives you exceptional value for money and lessens the risk of having a non runner situation greatly if you were to second guess which race they'd end up in. The same goes for many others. Only a select few are certain to be aimed at one specific race.

 

[Eggs]

I to got on a few decent TWAR doubles before they were taken down. If you take Ballyadam and Ferney Hollow for instance they both could go at least 3 ways each and you would expect them to be split as they are same connections. Therefore the TWAR double those two gives you exceptional value for money and lessens the risk of having a non runner situation greatly if you were to second guess which race they'd end up in. The same goes for many others. Only a select few are certain to be aimed at one specific race.

...they are 9-1 and 7-1 respectively in the Hills a/r market (both 8-1 in PP a/r list) but that specific a/r double is still available @ 100-1 in the Sky RaBs.

 

[Lobos]

...they are 9-1 and 7-1 respectively in the Hills a/r market (both 8-1 in PP a/r list) but that specific a/r double is still available @ 100-1 in the Sky RaBs.

Yep, been topping up on it each week ! They must remove it soon !

 

[Lobos]

A Plus Tard?

Correct. 8/1

 

[Lobos]

...they are 9-1 and 7-1 respectively in the Hills a/r market (both 8-1 in PP a/r list) but that specific a/r double is still available @ 100-1 in the Sky RaBs.

There are some awful RABS on there but several very nice ones. There is one in particular that I've been very keen on and been topping up for a bit now and for me stands out by a mile as the best value. Can you spot it ?

 

[Kevloaf]

Just glancing through the TWAR list on Willhill.



What price would you think you'd get for a festival winner from 2018, who went off 5/2 for a Championship race last year?

A Plus Tard?

Nope... Ryanair isn't a Champion Race ... A Plus Tard went off 7/4fav this year.....

Correct. 8/1

and as Lobos points out, is 8/1 TWAR

33-1 Laurina for the Mares Chase or 25-1 TWAR. Interesting......good 33-1 each way double with Galvin in the NH Chase.

Joking!!!!

The answer is Laurina at 25/1 TWAR
:highly_amused:

 

[Lobos]

Nope... Ryanair isn't a Champion Race ... A Plus Tard went off 7/4fav this year.....



and as Lobos points out, is 8/1 TWAR



The answer is Laurina at 25/1 TWAR
:highly_amused:

I think we've converted kev to the TWAR club guys !

 

[Lobos]

Please don't forget guys you can do TWAR 5th odds 3 places with Hills.

 

[Kevloaf]

I think we've converted kev to the TWAR club guys !

Having started the TWAR threads for the past few years before you joined it's more like you've joined my club :applause:
You're just using it wrong.

Please don't forget guys you can do TWAR 5th odds 3 places with Hills.

:highly_amused: Is that good?

 

[Kevloaf]

I thought about Laurina, as she did beat Minella Indo over fences, so if she bounced back she wouldn't be 25/1 in that Mares Chase.

I also thought as a festival winner, 25/1 would be respectable if she ended up in the Mares Hurdle!


I also considered she might be one for the Coral Cup or County Hurdle (probably not the latter).... or she could be tried up in trip and that might bring her back to her best.



Then I thought her best was never actually that good haha.
Then I thought she bled and has never really come back and might just be gone at the game.


Then I thought I'm spending too long thinking about Laurina.

 

[Lobos]

Having started the TWAR threads for the past few years before you joined it's more like you've joined my club :applause:
You're just using it wrong.



:highly_amused: Is that good?

Lol !

For those that bet EW, yes ! Don't think any other bookie go Ew. Take any 20/1 TWAR horse you fancy, particularly the novices, you'd have 4/1 a place for any number of races. Just another option that people might not be aware of.

 

[Lobos]

I thought about Laurina, as she did beat Minella Indo over fences, so if she bounced back she wouldn't be 25/1 in that Mares Chase.

I also thought as a festival winner, 25/1 would be respectable if she ended up in the Mares Hurdle!


I also considered she might be one for the Coral Cup or County Hurdle (probably not the latter).... or she could be tried up in trip and that might bring her back to her best.



Then I thought her best was never actually that good haha.
Then I thought she bled and has never really come back and might just be gone at the game.


Then I thought I'm spending too long thinking about Laurina.

Still a very good example of the TWAR market though. If she did come back to her Mares Novice winning form , who knows ?! How about 5/1 3 places any of those races you mentioned.......