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Hills TWAR Movers & Shakers

I’ve got Galvin added to the NH Chase market with Hills for those who are keen on him
 
I think that's a fair price. Would rather 40+:witless:
 
What is the actual value of 'To Win Any Race'. What are peoples thoughts on the best use of it.

It's a market that I have been bringing up year after year on here, as under used!


For me it's when there are two likely targets and the price for TWAR is better than or equal to the price in each market. Sometimes a slightly smaller price would also be worthwhile. One of the key benefits to the market though, is the bookies were SLOW at updating it. They'd cut horses for targets but leave the TWAR price for a bit. The main limitation is that having a non-runner is a distinct possibility and you get no run for your money.


NRNB is often a better angle, but requires you to double the stake (although you will get at least 1 of those two back) but it does tie up funds. The limitations are that NRNB doesn't kick in now until the new year and you may need to play before an event anticipating a horse to shorten and you may be left with a bad bet. On the other side, you may well have missed the price if you waited this long.



Cashing out is the other alternative, not available to everybody. Where you can back a horse and cash out for 95% of the stake if the ante post price hasn't moved. If it shortens you can get 100% or in some cases closer to day-of-race, a profit. I use this where I can and will for as long as I can.
 
I prefer to back each way with cash out for more than one target, and when I cash out one 'll usually put a lay price up on Betfair at the same time.

William Hill isn't available to me so TWAR isn't an option, but given 99% of my strategy is ew the account isn't too much of a loss. There is just the odd occasion where it would be useful, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't make too much difference to me.
 
Kevloaf said:
What is the actual value of 'To Win Any Race'. What are peoples thoughts on the best use of it.

It's a market that I have been bringing up year after year on here, as under used!


For me it's when there are two likely targets and the price for TWAR is better than or equal to the price in each market. Sometimes a slightly smaller price would also be worthwhile. One of the key benefits to the market though, is the bookies were SLOW at updating it. They'd cut horses for targets but leave the TWAR price for a bit. The main limitation is that having a non-runner is a distinct possibility and you get no run for your money.


NRNB is often a better angle, but requires you to double the stake (although you will get at least 1 of those two back) but it does tie up funds. The limitations are that NRNB doesn't kick in now until the new year and you may need to play before an event anticipating a horse to shorten and you may be left with a bad bet. On the other side, you may well have missed the price if you waited this long.



Cashing out is the other alternative, not available to everybody. Where you can back a horse and cash out for 95% of the stake if the ante post price hasn't moved. If it shortens you can get 100% or in some cases closer to day-of-race, a profit. I use this where I can and will for as long as I can.
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Agree NRNB is the best angle but does mean you miss a lot and have to tie a lot of cash up to catch up. From a cash flow perspective it helps me spreading the cost over 12 months but that's a non argument really as I could just put the money in savings then withdraw when NRNB kicks in. Not quite as fun though!

Otherwise cashout is the best but unfortunately not available.

TWAR is the third best. It is certainly more risky. Last year I got lucky (which was the first year I had no cash out accounts) it outweighed the losses I incurred from not being able to cash out because of Lisnagar Oscar and Ravenhill. I had 2 points on Lisnagar after a promising chase debut thinking it could be an RSA/NHC horse at 27.6/1 - I couldnt cash out and it won the stayers then Ravenhill who I backed for the NHC NNRB and then when it looked like he was going for the Kim Muir he was temporarily a bigger price TWAR than in that KM market, so backed him TWAR, he then switched back to the NHC and the rest is history. I imagine that was probably just good luck last year and doesn't always happen but every year there are always horses who unexpectedly change targets or who come back and surprise you. I am not saying it mitigates the risk entirely, i imagine most years it doesn't - but would be interesting to know if the TWAR markets have unexpedetly come to other peoples aid's like it did with me last year?
 
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Kevloaf said:
What is the actual value of 'To Win Any Race'. What are peoples thoughts on the best use of it.

It's a market that I have been bringing up year after year on here, as under used!


For me it's when there are two likely targets and the price for TWAR is better than or equal to the price in each market. Sometimes a slightly smaller price would also be worthwhile. One of the key benefits to the market though, is the bookies were SLOW at updating it. They'd cut horses for targets but leave the TWAR price for a bit. The main limitation is that having a non-runner is a distinct possibility and you get no run for your money.


NRNB is often a better angle, but requires you to double the stake (although you will get at least 1 of those two back) but it does tie up funds. The limitations are that NRNB doesn't kick in now until the new year and you may need to play before an event anticipating a horse to shorten and you may be left with a bad bet. On the other side, you may well have missed the price if you waited this long.



Cashing out is the other alternative, not available to everybody. Where you can back a horse and cash out for 95% of the stake if the ante post price hasn't moved. If it shortens you can get 100% or in some cases closer to day-of-race, a profit. I use this where I can and will for as long as I can.
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Cash out is my number one use right now.

Wish NRNB started earlier then I'd probably have a load more tied up already :highly_amused:

I'd say I overused the 'any race' market last season, lost quite a few before the festival was even close. Trying to stick to more options with cash out for now, that said I have a list of about 30 horses in the 'any race' column of my document currently :hopelessness: Will never learn!
 
Lobos said:
A certain horse won his first novice chase during a long summer racing campaign in 2016 , winning at Killarney along the way and unseated when fav at that years Galway Festival. The following March that horse ran away with the NHC. The horses name.....Tiger Roll. Ravenhill took a similar route before winning this year's race. Cause of Causes ran all summer long again taking in Killarney and the Galway Festival before finishing a close 2nd in the Kim Muir in 2014. Hang on a minute....Chicago Grey won the 2011 NHC after another summer trip round the Irish tracks visiting Killarney and the Galway Festival. So shock horror, Gordon , who trained all these animals does have a peculiar history of preparing horses for the festival in this way. How strange. Can lightning strike again with Galvin ???? Perhaps it's not all guesswork with me after all.
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Great work Lobos - I'm totally with you in this debate.

The argument about whether Galvin is better value for the Galway Plate at 10s than for any race at the Festival at 20s is totally beside the point in my book.

No horse has won the Plate carrying 11 stone or more since double victor Ansar in 2005. So IMO Galvin might be a couple of pounds higher than you'd like for the Plate - assuming he doesn't get a penalty for his facile win the other day. But 10-1 sounds like decent value because, as Kev said, he's obviously going to be in it to win a huge pot not protect his handicap mark.

But I reckon Galvin has only 2 viable alternatives at the Festival - the Ultima or The NH Chase. Surely his mark is going to be too high to get in the Kim Muir.

The Ultima is not a handicap that Gordon particularly targets. In the last 5 years he's saddled five runners (4 unplaced, 1 third). It's always competitive and the chances are Galvin would have to carry 11-stone minimum, more if he performs well in the Plate or anywhere else before the Festival. No way will Gordon see that as a gimmee.

So I'm prepared to gamble he doesn't end up in the Ultima.

What's more, the NH Chase market at the moment is a lovely betting opportunity because it's highly likely that none of the market leaders will turn up. The top four in the betting are Monkfish, Thyme Hill, Fury Road and Latest Exhibition. NH Chase for any of these - really? Surely they will all be aiming higher.

And Galvin neatly fits the profile of what you are looking for to win the NH Chase since it became a Grade 2 four years ago. The last four winners were all pretty experienced over fences: 6,5,10,10 for the number of previous chases (latest on left). The Plate will be Galvin's sixth chase.

I know a lot of people are on Aione at great prices and I've already had a punt on Janidil at 50-1. But neither they nor many of the other interesting outsiders have jumped a fence yet. Galvin not only has the chasing experience but he's jumped round Cheltenham and proven himself in two Festival races. I'm not nearly as dismissive as some of that 6th place in the Ballymore - that was a hot race and Galvin just got outpaced at the business end.

Gordon's won 3 of the last six runnings of the NH Chase - two of them with seven-year-olds. Galvin will be seven next year.

I backed him in the Northern Trust and was disappointed with his run at the time. But rewatching it today he stays on very nicely up the hill but just doesn't have the pace to match Imperial Aura. The third horse was 9 lengths further back which has to be a plus for Galvin.

I got Hills to add Galvin to their NH Chase market today (though now I see Faugheen may have beaten me to it) and they've put him in at 33-1 (36.7-1 with boost) and I'm on for 2pts each way.

If Galvin turns up with Jamie Codd on his back you're probably not going to get 5-1.

And one betting strategy would be to back him for the Plate and the NH Chase, using the Plate bet to cover the Festival stake.
 
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Why can't Galvin end up in the Marsh Chase or the RSA if he can run in the NH Chase or Ultima as the only two options?! :confused:




If he ends up weith Codd on his back, quite the leap? How many horses could we say that about right now?! He rode Le Breuil in 2019 didn't he!



The owner having Rathvinden and the trainer having a good record in the race... okay.... has Galvin looked like he wants the trip? If Lobos' theory is right about the NH Chase being right, back that..... having the 'back up' of him running elsewhere at 20/1 isn't good value.

Are you really willing to hope all this falls into place at odds of 20/1 (with the back up of you not losing your moeny if the targets wrong)



If you could get 25/1 with a cashout for NHC that is a better bet than 20/1 TWAR.

If people want to gamble that the NH Chase is right at 33/1, okay.... I think it's more likely you've backed a non runner but at least 33/1 is a price.... I wouldn't evne knock that as much as the 20/1 TWAR!


20/1, hoping he gets Codd on and ends up in the NH Chase, right now, is a bad bet.



Out of principle, I'll make sure I am on Galvin at bigger than 20/1 in no matter what he runs in. I am so confident I'll be able to do that. It is craaaaaaaaaaaaazy to be getting as giddy as you all are about him.


He isn't even that fucking good. :highly_amused:





The fact he's 10/1 for a race targetted at in a few weeks isn't "the point", it just highlights that 20/1 8 months away is a bizarre way to consider yourelf a shrewdie.





This is great fun isn't it hahaha, I'll back off though now and concentrate on the flat today... I'll pick this up later when I look forward to all the people disagreeing with me :witless:
 
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TWAR is my first port of call. For me it takes the biggest guesswork out of the equation i.e. 'which race a horse is likely that run in'. As with all AP betting you still need to pick out the value ,or bargains as I like to call them, and get in early. Take Monkfish for example. For me he is the 'ideal' TWAR horse, emphasised even more by his connections not making concrete decisions until close to the festival itself. He could go many ways, RSA, Marsh, NHC, Stayers. He was available early doors at 10/1 TWAR which I hoovered up. I can now just sit back and enjoy the ride whilst all and sundry debate as to where he may end up. Same with PTKO. Took 16/1 TWAR . He could go two ways and is now half those odds to win the Mares Chase. It's a great bet with the Novices all round as no one knows where they will go. 14/1 Ballyadam could go 3 ways, 10/1 Ferney Hollow the same. I could end up with two great bets in the same race .Stick them in TWAR double (not available now) and you cover any number of cross doubles. Even Easysland at 2/1 TWAR covers the tiny possibility of him going GC and 5/2 Envoi covers RSA, Marsh, Arkle, Champion Hurdle and even the GC. Of course there is no cash out but even with that option you still have to be on your game and be quick which at my age is not always possible. For me TWAR is perfect.
 
Kevloaf said:
Why can't Galvin end up in the Marsh Chase or the RSA if he can run in the NH Chase or Ultima as the only two options?! :confused:




If he ends up weith Codd on his back, quite the leap? How many horses could we say that about right now?! He rode Le Breuil in 2019 didn't he!



The owner having Rathvinden and the trainer having a good record in the race... okay.... has Galvin looked like he wants the trip? If Lobos' theory is right about the NH Chase being right, back that..... having the 'back up' of him running elsewhere at 20/1 isn't good value.

Are you really willing to hope all this falls into place at odds of 20/1 (with the back up of you not losing your moeny if the targets wrong)



If you could get 25/1 with a cashout for NHC that is a better bet than 20/1 TWAR.

If people want to gamble that the NH Chase is right at 33/1, okay.... I think it's more likely you've backed a non runner but at least 33/1 is a price.... I wouldn't evne knock that as much as the 20/1 TWAR!


20/1, hoping he gets Codd on and ends up in the NH Chase, right now, is a bad bet.



Out of principle, I'll make sure I am on Galvin at bigger than 20/1 in no matter what he runs in. I am so confident I'll be able to do that. It is craaaaaaaaaaaaazy to be getting as giddy as you all are about him.


He isn't even that fucking good. :highly_amused:





The fact he's 10/1 for a race targetted at in a few weeks isn't "the point", it just highlights that 20/1 8 months away is a bizarre way to consider yourelf a shrewdie.





This is great fun isn't it hahaha, I'll back off though now and concentrate on the flat today... I'll pick this up later when I look forward to all the people disagreeing with me :witless:
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Kev you are absolutely right - Galvin " isn't that f****** good" and that is precisely the reason he won't end up in the Marsh or the RSA. I'd exclude the Ultima too on the same grounds. But as you well know, the NH Chase is a weaker race and 36-1 is a cracking price for a horse who has finished second in a Festival novice chase, ran a respectable 6th in the Ballymore, has already gained invaluable chasing experience, looks like he will improve for a trip, has already proved his fitness this summer and is trained by the man who has won this contest 4 times in ten years. This is surely a risk worth taking. Jamie Codd on board would be the icing on the cake.

In my book there's far more chance of Galvin's price tumbling this summer than most other horses we've been talking about and backing since March.
 
Lobos said:
TWAR is my first port of call. For me it takes the biggest guesswork out of the equation i.e. 'which race a horse is likely that run in'. As with all AP betting you still need to pick out the value ,or bargains as I like to call them, and get in early. Take Monkfish for example. For me he is the 'ideal' TWAR horse, emphasised even more by his connections not making concrete decisions until close to the festival itself. He could go many ways, RSA, Marsh, NHC, Stayers. He was available early doors at 10/1 TWAR which I hoovered up. I can now just sit back and enjoy the ride whilst all and sundry debate as to where he may end up. Same with PTKO. Took 16/1 TWAR . He could go two ways and is now half those odds to win the Mares Chase. It's a great bet with the Novices all round as no one knows where they will go. 14/1 Ballyadam could go 3 ways, 10/1 Ferney Hollow the same. I could end up with two great bets in the same race .Stick them in TWAR double (not available now) and you cover any number of cross doubles. Even Easysland at 2/1 TWAR covers the tiny possibility of him going GC and 5/2 Envoi covers RSA, Marsh, Arkle, Champion Hurdle and even the GC. Of course there is no cash out but even with that option you still have to be on your game and be quick which at my age is not always possible. For me TWAR is perfect.
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Nobody is debating that TWAR can be perfect.
Especially when a price is the same as it is for a specific target (Monkfish a good example). Literally nobody is arguing that.



I am debating specifically that Galvin is a good value bet at 20/1.



I'll just add, considering you don't bet on anything other than Cheltenham ante post, you surely have as much or more time than others to concern yourself with working out the puzzle or 'guesswork' of a target.:highly_amused: You often think outside the box in terms of targets, I'm surprised you don't put any effort into following through and backing them for a largert financial gain... try and get them on the exchanges and so on? Klassical Dream Stayers, Appreciate It for the RSA this year (or NHC :p) etc...

If I was you, and Galvin ends up winning the NHC, I'd be a bit annoyed I only had 20/1 given all the other options... which brings me back to ... "I am debating specifically that Galvin is a good value bet at 20/1."

:encouragement:
 
Kevloaf said:
Nobody is debating that TWAR can be perfect.
Especially when a price is the same as it is for a specific target (Monkfish a good example). Literally nobody is arguing that.



I am debating specifically that Galvin is a good value bet at 20/1.



I'll just add, considering you don't bet on anything other than Cheltenham ante post, you surely have as much or more time than others to concern yourself with working out the puzzle or 'guesswork' of a target.:highly_amused: You often think outside the box in terms of targets, I'm surprised you don't put any effort into following through and backing them for a largert financial gain... try and get them on the exchanges and so on? Klassical Dream Stayers, Appreciate It for the RSA this year (or NHC :p) etc...

If I was you, and Galvin ends up winning the NHC, I'd be a bit annoyed I only had 20/1 given all the other options... which brings me back to ... "I am debating specifically that Galvin is a good value bet at 20/1."

:encouragement:
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I was specifically answering you question regarding TWAR in #85. Re Galvin, I'm happy 20/1 is value and thats all that matters. Rather have him TWAR than at bigger odds in a specific race. Still think there is every chance he could end up in a handicap, be it over fences or hurdles. If, and it's a big if be us talking about Galvin or Envoi Allen, he gets to the festival, he won't be 20/1.
 
I also lost a fair bit on TWAR market with hills last year, many of which didn’t make the festival. I do think it’s a good tool but generally there are not many diamonds at a decent price worth backing than say 365 or pp where you have cash out.

100% rather back with potential loss of 5% on a horse than have a TWAR bet that will be a few points shorter when you place it anyway. Understand not everyone has advantage of both options.

Agree with Kev here, wouldn’t be happy with 20/1 on Galvan this far out when you could almost guarantee getting a better price on any race he could run in down the line.
 
Spectre said:
I prefer to back each way with cash out for more than one target, and when I cash out one 'll usually put a lay price up on Betfair at the same time.

William Hill isn't available to me so TWAR isn't an option, but given 99% of my strategy is ew the account isn't too much of a loss. There is just the odd occasion where it would be useful, but in the grand scheme of things it doesn't make too much difference to me.
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Can’t you go in to a Hills shop and use TWAR on the sports terminals?
 
Probably, although I've never tried FM. I can't remember the last time I walked in to a bookies tbh.
 
The beauty of the Hills TWAR market was that you could include selections in multi's, this was removed very soon after last seasons festival and that option no longer exists so I agree with Craigy there isn't a huge amount of value in many of the prices, the value came from having 2 or 3 10/1 shots and getting them in the same betslip...
 
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