• HELP US - Become a Patron - Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated ... a small donation each month would be a huge contribution. Become a Patron!

Daily National Hunt Racing Tips

Abacadabras looks like back to lay material. What did he go in running ?
 
Pendil said:
Backed Aspire Tower @ 7/2 against Aba tomorrow
Click to expand...

Well done Pendil.

Could have fleshed it out a bit! :)


You'd have had me, hook line and sinker. I'm gutted about that performance still!
 
Had a few quid on Chris's dream at 4/1

goes well fresh and im not convinced by delta works jumping
 
Pendil said:
Backed Aspire Tower @ 7/2 against Aba tomorrow
Click to expand...

Fair play

I couldn't go in on this, was a no bet race. Expected Aba to have beaten these today, its not a surprise though that he didn't
It's a slight blissing for me, because I missed out on the bigger prices for Aba so was strugglign to get him in the book. Not sure what to do with him now. I'll wait and mull this over more

WD though
 
Big day for Ante post for me and a fair others i guess with Quilixios, Ballyadam, Sir Gerhard, Samcro/Easy Game. Hoping for monster performances from the CP squad!
 
  • Like
Reactions: PaisleyPark
Decided to have a small go on Copperhead tomorrow, who seems overpriced to me. Bit concerned with Tizzard's form recently but he has to start getting some winners in soon...

Edit: Just about talked myself out of Copperhead so will likely cash out. Will probably just leave my yankee on Chris's Dream, Samcro, Sebastopol & Sam Spinner as my only bet tomorrow. I'm mostly posting this so you all know which horses to avoid... :rolleyes:
 
Last edited:
Bets I've had for tomorrow.

Ascot
13.20 - Dorking Boy
13.55 - Capeland
15.05 - Sebastopol
15.40 - Commanche Run/Regal Encore

Down Royal
13.50 - Golden Jewel

Main bet is Golden Jewel who Scooby has also put up as a free longshot. I backed him at 16s with Hills yesterday and have gone in again at 33s with Paddy's today. He already has a run under his belt this season so should be fir for this. If he can reproduce anywhere near his 2nd in the handicap at the Dublin Festival then he will go very close here IMO. In that race, GJ would have won with a clear run and the winner went on to come 3rd at Cheltenham with 13lbs more weight.
 
....I’ll continue to follow Azzuri over a cliff tomorrow. Backed into favourite from 50-1 for last years Red Rum at Aintree, it got withdrawn because of the going and then won like a good thing at Ayr. No idea if it’s gone at the game, or Skelton has something lined up (it’s probably the former).
 
Like both of Cromwells at DR tomorrow. Wolf Prince and Prosecco.

And B365 opened Vintage Prosecco at 14's which was a mistake I reckon.:)

Will likely bet 10pts on Easy Game if his price drifts any further.
I think the prices between him and Samcro, are about right now, 5/4 each.
And it looks a two horse race.

I like these type of small field match ups and if the prices go in favour of Samcro as I expect (a fanboy horse). I'll back Easy game accordingly.
Samcro could easily win on his best form. But he's not always at his best.
I still think he's a bit of a bitch (very talented but quits a bit when it hurts), but his Cheltenham run was a real surprise, almost like he'd had something special added.

Was thinking of doing something similar with Cyrname, but he's drifting because of the forecast rain I think. For a horse that likes to dominate, three miles on bad ground ain't going to be easy to judge. He may not even run.
If he does I'll still back him (not much though), especially at 3-1 as it's too big a price for a horse with his rating and top performance bar. The jockey will have to be conservative enough though or he'll blow out and one of the boats will crawl past him.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The King Pimm
Pendil said:
6/4 Easy Game and I am on
Click to expand...

6/4 Easy Game a better bet than Samcro at 2/1?

No case made but at least this time you've hooked me so can gloat tomorrow :p
 
Quevega said:
Like both of Cromwells at DR tomorrow. Wolf Prince and Prosecco.

And B365 opened Vintage Prosecco at 14's which was a mistake I reckon.:)

Will likely bet 10pts on Easy Game if his price drifts any further.
I think the prices between him and Samcro, are about right now, 5/4 each.
And it looks a two horse race.

I like these type of small field match ups and if the prices go in favour of Samcro as I expect (a fanboy horse). I'll back Easy game accordingly.
Samcro could easily win on his best form. But he's not always at his best.
I still think he's a bit of a bitch (very talented but quits a bit when it hurts), but his Cheltenham run was a real surprise, almost like he'd had something special added.

Was thinking of doing something similar with Cyrname, but he's drifting because of the forecast rain I think. For a horse that likes to dominate, three miles on bad ground ain't going to be easy to judge. He may not even run.
If he does I'll still back him (not much though), especially at 3-1 as it's too big a price for a horse with his rating and top performance bar. The jockey will have to be conservative enough though or he'll blow out and one of the boats will crawl past him.
Click to expand...

I can see the case for Easy Game tomorrow, I really can.... the run with Faugheen, the race fitness edge....

but 10 points? When Samcro was 2/1 - that was the obvious bet?

If Easy Game gets to 15/8, then I'll probably have the saver like a little worm....




.....but Dutching them was the bet, not going absolutely balls deep against Samcro?



I'm surprised you've got your balls out on this one.... you must secretly hate Samcro but are too scared to say that is why you're taking him on.
 
  • Like
Reactions: The King Pimm
Some trappy races tomorrow now given the weather forecast. The 1.20 at Ascot looks a good value race for some roll ups and fancying Falco Blitz to get the job done with Dorking Boy as a back up.

Also backing Chris’s Dream, Samcro, Capeland, Roskana and Valtor.
 
Tough day today, with most of the ones I like looking too short now.

Main bet - Caltex 1.42 Ayr (5/2 last night - was 2s this morning when I last checked)

He's placed off this mark (127) before in a much stronger contest behind Ballyhill at Aintree. That horse then placed in a couple of Grade 3 handicaps at Cheltenham. A couple of runs after that, back at Aintree again, Caltex finished 8th in the 2m4 Handicap Hurdle during the National meeting ahead of Mohaayed, Esprit Du Large, Mount Mews, Project Bluebook etc. Just spotted, whilst writing this, that he also finished a head 2nd to The Conditional in a maiden hurdle 2 years ago. Not relevant, but interested me!

He then moved from Henry Oliver to Claire Dyson (5 winners from 204 runners in the last 5 years), which succeeded in getting him very well handicapped. On his first run for Michael Scudamore in February, he won by 22 lengths at Leicester off 118. The 2nd place horse won next time out, albeit a hunters chase, but there were a couple of good horses in behind - Sir Mangan & More Buck's.

He goes well on heavy ground (form figures of 2211) and Scudamore has a very good record when sending horses North of the border. He has a strike rate of 33% in the last 5 years compared with an overall 12%. His stable are in decent form, with 3 winners from 5 in the past week. Having Richard Patrick claiming 3lbs is also very useful. I've always been amazed that he's still a claimer.

Others I like -
1.55 Ascot - Capeland - As long as the ground doesn't go too soft
2.45 Wetherby - Roksana - Price is far too short for me now
3:20 Wetherby - Vinndication - Took 4s earlier in the week, but again is very short now. I'm happy to take on Cyrname, who seems to be a different horse over 2m5 at Ascot compared with anywhere else. Ballyoptic is the danger, IMO, if the ground goes soft
3:40 Ascot - Valtor - Assuming that the ground does go soft, he seems a cracking bet (or at least was when he was double figures...). Won off 148 and finished 2nd off 150 in similar races before. Gutted that I missed the price as the plan was to wait to see the rain come before getting involved. Lesson learned - place the bet early if you like the price and then cashout/lay off if the conditions don't go how you want them to.

Good luck all.
 
Kevloaf said:
I can see the case for Easy Game tomorrow, I really can.... the run with Faugheen, the race fitness edge....

but 10 points? When Samcro was 2/1 - that was the obvious bet?

If Easy Game gets to 15/8, then I'll probably have the saver like a little worm....




.....but Dutching them was the bet, not going absolutely balls deep against Samcro?



I'm surprised you've got your balls out on this one.... you must secretly hate Samcro but are too scared to say that is why you're taking him on.
Click to expand...

I don’t like samcro
for sure
but I read this race that easy game should win.
just wanted the prices to turn around
 
I've had to chance Might Bite at 20/1 with 5 places in the 3.40 at Ascot.

I know he's gone at the game, but I just can't help it. 2 seasons ago he was a Grade 1 winner, and now he's in a handicap getting 9lbs off Black Corton, so I just can't help it.


1 point each way, definitely losing, can't stop myself. :D
 
put just 6 pts on Easy Game with 365 this morning at 6/4. will be watching the market now and will add more if it drifts out again, it seems to be shortening back up now after the weird gamble on Battleoverdoyen.
 
Kevloaf said:
I've had to chance Might Bite at 20/1 with 5 places in the 3.40 at Ascot.

I know he's gone at the game, but I just can't help it. 2 seasons ago he was a Grade 1 winner, and now he's in a handicap getting 9lbs off Black Corton, so I just can't help it.


1 point each way, definitely losing, can't stop myself. :D
Click to expand...

I know where you're coming from, I LOVE this horse but even as one of his biggest fans Im struggling to part money with him. No doubt closer to the race I will back him though, I'd be kicking myself more if he went and won and I didnt back him than if I backed and he was poor..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom